How well could Reform perform in the local elections?
With his party standing more candidates in the upcoming local elections on 1 May than either Labour or the Conservative Party, Farage lauded recent polling for Reform as "astonishing progress".
"Our support is coming directly from people who have been, in many cases, life-long Labour voters," he said, claiming his right-wing anti-immigration party is now 'the opposition to the Labour Party".
Farage said Reform had made gains in council by-elections in recent weeks, including in the Longdendale ward in Tameside and the Blackbrook ward in St Helens.
"It is going to be, I think, incredibly close in Runcorn. So in the Midlands, in the North, in Wales and in Scotland, Reform is now the opposition to the Labour Party, with the Conservatives trailing some way behind," he said.
"The sheer level of betrayal of what people who voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 got, they didn't get the Brexit they voted for... those people are not ever going to trust the Conservative Party again."
With Farage striking such an optimistic tone at Tuesday's speech, how well is the party really expected to do in next month's elections?
At his speech in County Durham, Farage claimed Reform was 'parking their tanks on the lawns of the red wall', referring to the historic heartlands of Labour in the Midlands and North of England.
This claim is supported by a new poll, carried out by Survation for the Sun, which has shown that since the general election in July 2024, Reform UK's popularity in the North and Midlands has risen from 18% to 30%.
Meanwhile Labour's vote share in these regions has dropped from 39% to 27%, while the Tories have suffered a smaller fall from 24% to 22%.
Survation said that among likely voters in this year's local elections across the region, Reform currently is expected to hold 29% of the vote share, compared to 24% for the Conservatives, and 20% for Labour.
The polling suggests that Reform is securing its status as the main threat to Labour.
When asked to name the party most likely to threaten Labour in this year's local elections, 44% of respondents chose Reform – well ahead of the Conservatives (26%) and Liberal Democrats (8%).
A local election poll carried out by Electoral Calculus puts Reform on equal footing with the Conservatives, with 25% of the vote.
The poll was put together using Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP), a relatively recent technique that has successfully predicted the last three general elections, and gives the estimated result in each local authority.
It suggests Labour is only on 18%, just ahead of the Liberal Democrats at 17%.
Recent projections by J.L. Partners suggest that Reform UK and the Conservatives would be "neck-and-neck" if a general election was to be held now.
The market research company's POLARIS model, which uses data from council by-elections to predict election outcomes mid-cycle, suggests Labour would lose its majority in the House of Commons.
It puts Keir Starmer's party at 218 seats, the Tories at 136 and Reform biting at their heels with 135 seats in Parliament.
Meanwhile YouGov's voting intention poll, released today, suggests 23% of voters would choose Reform now, compared to 24% for the Tories and Labour.
Despite the upbeat and hopeful messaging of Labour as it entered office nearly a year ago, the party has taken plenty of opportunities to upset the British electorate, including over its proposed welfare cuts.
Data compiled by the Disability Poverty Campaign Group suggests at least 80 Labour MPs are at risk of losing their majorities over the planned reforms.
This, the group suggests, is because these MPs have a majority in their constituencies that is smaller than the number of disabled people who face having their benefits slashed.
Some particularly at risk constituencies for Labour include Ribble Valley in Lancashire, Derbyshire Dales, South West Norfolk, Middlesborough South and East Cleveland, and Lichfield.
Responding to the findings, former shadow employment minister Andy McDonald told the Guardian: "The government's welfare reforms disproportionately hit constituents who can least afford it and that is particularly so in the constituencies of many Labour MPs. It poses a real electoral risk."
Polling by More in Common and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation also found that 58% of people think cuts to disability benefits are a bad idea, with "particularly strong" objections among key parts of Labour's voter base, such as "progressive activists", "civic pragmatists" and "loyal nationalists".
New polling with @Moreincommon_ finds 58% of people think the cuts to disability benefits are a bad idea.Objections are particularly strong in some key parts of Labour's voter coalition (see progressive activists, civic pragmatists & loyal nationals below) pic.twitter.com/yG2qZMj4pl
— Katie Schmuecker (@KatieSchmuecker) April 2, 2025
However despite this pattern, Tom Lubbock, founding director of J.L. Partners, told Yahoo News that he has not seen any indication that benefit reforms are driving voters away from Labour in significant numbers.
However, he suggested a number of other factors are pushing Labour supporters into Reform's hands – mainly a lack of enthusiasm over how Starmer's government has been doing so far.
Lubbock said that Reform UK had a "post Christmas bloat" but have "really plateaued" in the last two months and have "stopped making progress".
"It's a combination of what's happened since the general election... Labour essentially took our a playbook which said 'let's make ourselves as unpopular as we can in 12 months," he said.
He cited "talking down of the economy", constraints on the budget, the review of agricultural property relief (APR) for farmers and a general sense that "nothing was getting any better" as the cost of living remained high.
"Labour have found their floor for the time being," he added, which is also benefiting Farage's party, adding that a broadly similar number of Conservative and Labour supporters have gravitated towards Reform.
"Most of it is a messaging or comms issue, I don't think anyone expected the NHS to immediately improve, there has just not really been any positive change, or it has been very, very slow."
Meanwhile, Lubbock said, many voters concerned about illegal immigration feel that having criticised Rishi Sunak for "over-promising and under-delivering", Labour has done the same when it comes to stopping people smuggling gangs and illegal migration.
YouGov polling from January suggests 18% of people who would consider voting for Reform would do so because of its policies on immigration – the biggest single reason other than "another party needs to go/better than the rest".
Polling by YouGov from March said the "negativity about the economy is highest among those who voted for right-wing parties". YouGov also found that only 14% of voters thought Chancellor Rachel Reeves was doing a good job.
Like him or loathe him, Farage has a strong presence, and while Lubbock said he can certainly claim a lot of credit for Reform's successes, there are wider issues at play here.
"You can see how far Reform got without him, which is not nowhere but any about halfway to where they are now," he said, adding that the party has "advanced further" since Farage expressed his intention to lead the party.
He said that while Reform's leader is certainly a "valuable asset", voter intention is not a "poll of Nigel Farage" and that there is a wider pattern of "rebellion" against the two parties who have dominated British elections for countless decades.
"Don't underestimate the protest vote in British politics," he added, "it is extremely strong both in general elections and local elections."
Read more
Farage: We're parking our tanks on Labour's Red Wall lawn (The Telegraph)
Nigel Farage Was Asked How He Plans To Pay For All Of Reform's Policies – And Couldn't Answer (HuffPost)
Reform UK treasurer Candy sweet on merger of payments firms (Sky News)
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Cosmopolitan
11 hours ago
- Cosmopolitan
Labour promised women better, safer lives: a year on, we decode the small wins and biggest let downs
This time last year, there was a buzz in the air: a cautious sense of optimism that crept in as we all headed to our local polling stations to vote in the general election. A vibe shift suggested that after fourteen years of having a Conservative government, we were close to seeing changes for the better. Finally, we all said, there'll be an end to austerity and insane energy bills, no more money being wasted on pointless contracts for friends of the party (Michelle Mone's £200m PPE scandal, here's looking at you), a party in power who actually cares. How novel! On 5 July 2025, it was confirmed. Enter: Keir Starmer's Labour party to 10 Downing Street, primed to save the day. For women, there was also Labour's key promise that male violence against women and girls (MVAWG) would finally be on the agenda and taken seriously. In its 142-page manifesto, the party pledged to halve MVAWG within ten years by using 'every tool at its disposal', from fast-tracking rape cases through specialist courts to targeting the most horrific perpetrators of sexual offences by 'using tactics normally reserved for terrorists and organised crime'. Elsewhere, the manifesto made plain it would tackle stalking – a crime which, despite impacting roughly one in five women and often being a precursor to other offences, is not always taken seriously – and to address misogyny in schools, after a worrying uptick of concerning behaviour. More affordable childcare options and rooting out the misogyny within the police was also tabled. A year on, when I think back to last summer, and watching the live coverage of votes being tallied and feeling so stupidly hopeful, it all feels like a fever dream. It's hard to muster up that same feeling of optimism in many ways and now, whenever I see Keir Starmer or senior members of the Labour party pop up, the only thing that really comes to mind is the iconic meme of Tyra Banks shouting, 'We were all rooting for you, Tiffany!' to an America's Next Top Model contestant who, in her eyes, simply didn't deliver as expected. We're 365 days down, with a (most likely) further four years to go before another general election is called. So, have Labour actually made any progress when it comes to making the lives of women and girls better? Perhaps the data isn't as bad as it feels? We took a deep-dive, with the help of the Fawcett Society, into the key promises for women and girls… and the progress made (or lack thereof) one year on. Progress: The Fawcett Society has questioned how the metric of 'halving violence against women and girls within a decade' can actually be efficiently measured, but said it's encouraging to hear the Home Office is piloting specialists in 999 rooms in London, Manchester, West Midlands and South Yorkshire. Progress, albeit slow. In London, the Met Police has launched its V100 programme, using new data-driven methods to track down the worst 100 offenders who've committed violence against women and girls. The force claims it has more than doubled arrests and charges for rape and serious sexual offences, but these numbers are still abysmally low compared to the number of reports received. Given that the worrying stats around VAWG, including that 2 million women each year experience domestic abuse and three women are murdered a week, have not changed in decades, it's clear Labour has a lot more work to be doing in this space. Domestic abuse wasn't mentioned in the Spending Review at all and women's centres and support services are crying out for urgent funding. Progress: In recent years, 1,300 police officers (that we know of) have been arrested for domestic abuse. Refuge is calling for automatic suspension, but that hasn't happened yet. Ellie Butt, Head of Policy and Public Affairs at Refuge, told Cosmopolitan UK, "Women's confidence in the justice system is currently at a crisis point and we continue to see abuse perpetrated by police officers themselves. "Following on from Refuge's 'Remove the Rot' campaign, which exposed the shocking magnitude of police forces' failure to tackle misogyny and police-perpetrated VAWG, Labour committed to the suspension of all officers accused of domestic abuse or sexual offences pending an investigation. The government must make good on this pledge as a matter of urgency. We keenly await further details of plans to improve police vetting." Progress: As well as Keir Starmer calling for Adolescence to be shown in schools, RHSE guidance is being updated to include lessons tackling misogyny – but again, it all leads back to money. There's little in terms of funding or a national push for change that has been announced, and it's no secret teachers are exiting the profession in droves. Progress: AI is being utilised across the board to demean, punish and scare women – for example 'nudify' apps, deepfake porn and e-pimps using AI to scan social media accounts to coerce young women into Only Fans are all big problems. Ones that the government is having a hard time holding the relevant platforms to account over. Labour inherited the Online Safety Bill (2023) – and both the party's manifesto and the Bill already are out of date. It fails to deal with the threat of AI against women head-on and legislators across the world (UK included) are struggling to keep up with the technological advancements and its misogynistic manifestations. It often feels like powerful social media companies can easily shirk responsibilities when it comes to regulating harmful content and behaviours, and that they're reluctant to properly address the issues. After all, shocking content equals better engagement for them which drives revenue. It's a whole mess. Elsewhere, as part of the Crime and Policing Bill, violent choking scenes depicted in porn are set to be outlawed. Progress: For working mums, having more free childcare is a no-brainer and helps to keep women in work after starting a family, which would shrink the gender pay gap. So far, 300 primary schools have been granted funding (£150,000 per school) to expand by building a nursery on-site, which it's hoped will lead to 4,000 more available places by September 2025. It seems progress is being made (but again… slowly). But ask anyone with a kid in nursery about the astronomical fees – it costs £14,000 on average to send a child to nursery per year – which don't seem to be coming down, and it's clear there's still so much that needs to be done in this space. In fact, not all parents are even eligible for the 30 free hours of childcare that the government has offered: women who are in education/training, who work under 16 hours, and who have no recourse to public funds are still cut off from free childcare entirely – which has a serious impact on social mobility and economic growth. Working mums know the struggle of the juggle – and how hard it can be finding a job that allows them to drop their children to school and get to work on time. Expanding childcare offerings within a school setting, such as with breakfast clubs, could help reduce the 'motherhood penalty' which is a big factor in the gender pay gap. Progress: The Department of Education has begun a roll out of 750 'early adopter' schools, providing spaces for 180,000 children. Government data shows half of working parents will use this breakfast club provision to improve their working patterns. Seeing as the UK has the worst paternity leave in Europe (something that has hit headlines again this past week), levelling up the playing field is needed. There are links between post-partum depression and a lack of support post-birth for mothers, which could be alleviated if fathers had a better leave system. Progress: An 18-month review into parental leave has just begun, but it'll take a while for results to trickle in – and even longer for action and changes to be implemented. 'We have long called for a review of parental leave and it's great that the government is doing just that, but we really hope that this will move at pace otherwise women will continue to lose out,' Penny East, Fawcett Society's Chief Executive, told Cosmopolitan UK. 'Progress on equality doesn't just happen; it's won and we need to give credit where it's due, while also holding the government to account.' Progress: A new investigation into the worrying state of maternity care (half of all maternity units in England and Wales are deemed unsafe) has just been launched, with findings from the review set to be published in December 2025. While a 'men's health strategy' consultation launched in April 2025, the Conservative-inherited women's health strategy hasn't been given much public attention – Cosmopolitan UK reported earlier this year that experts have expressed concerns that women's health is actively being deprioritised. Progress: Discrimination at work is prevalent; 54,000 of us lose our jobs while on maternity leave every year and half of women have experienced sexual harassment at work – this cannot be allowed to continue. Oh, and the gender pay gap actually grew last year for the first time since 2013. While the Employment Rights Bill began its journey through Parliament within three months of Labour taking office, it's no silver bullet. Yes, the Bill promises greater support for women in work – for example providing protections from day one, and ensuring all employers need to provide an alternative role to women who are made redundant on maternity leave – but it still means employers can easily reject requests for flexible working patterns. The Labour manifesto also promised enforcement agencies would ensure employers adhere to the new workers' rights; however, the recent Spending Review in June 2025 did not set out any funding for this, making alarm bells ring in the women's sector. Without this, employers will continue to escape their legal duties to improve rights for workers. Jennifer Savin is Cosmopolitan UK's multiple award-winning Features Editor, who was crowned Digital Journalist of the Year for her work tackling the issues most important to young women. She regularly covers breaking news, cultural trends, health, the royals and more, using her esteemed connections to access the best experts along the way. She's grilled everyone from high-profile politicians to A-list celebrities, and has sensitively interviewed hundreds of people about their real life stories. In addition to this, Jennifer is widely known for her own undercover investigations and campaign work, which includes successfully petitioning the government for change around topics like abortion rights and image-based sexual abuse. Jennifer is also a published author, documentary consultant (helping to create BBC's Deepfake Porn: Could You Be Next?) and a patron for Y.E.S. (a youth services charity). Alongside Cosmopolitan, Jennifer has written for The Times, Women's Health, ELLE and numerous other publications, appeared on podcasts, and spoken on (and hosted) panels for the Women of the World Festival, the University of Manchester and more. In her spare time, Jennifer is a big fan of lipstick, leopard print and over-ordering at dinner. Follow Jennifer on Instagram, X or LinkedIn.
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Yahoo
Fact check: Reform was largest party in Warwickshire local elections
A senior Reform UK politician claimed that the party 'won a walloping majority on May 1, becoming the largest party with 23 seats' on Warwickshire County Council. Reform won around four in 10 of the seats on the council, gaining just over 30% of the total vote – making it the biggest party by both measures, however it did not win a majority in either sense. The council does not provide a single public webpage displaying the vote tallies of all the wards in the last local election. The PA news agency compiled the results from all the different wards into a spreadsheet. Analysis of that data shows that there were a total of 160,300 votes cast in the election, of which somewhat over 49,000 were cast for Reform candidates. That is around 30.7% of the vote. While it fell short of exceeding 50% of the vote to obtain a majority, the result makes Reform the largest party by vote share, ahead of the Conservatives on 24.9%. The analysis also shows that Reform won 23 out of the 57 council seats. That is around 40% of the total seats on the council. Post on X (archived post and video) Spreadsheet of PA analysis (downloads as spreadsheet)


Politico
17 hours ago
- Politico
Stars, stripes and side-eye
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The Independence Day invites are usually highly sought after by staffers, lobbyists, journalists — and everyone in between. — Feeling excited: 'I see it as not only an opportunity to mark the founding of the United States but also a chance to celebrate the U.S.-Canada bilateral relationship and our long history of working together in North America and on the world stage,' Hoekstra told Playbook in a statement. — Theme: Per Hoekstra: Summer picnic with 'delicious delights typically featured at Fourth of July celebrations across the United States.' — Trade war buzzkill: This year, downing American beer and chomping burgers might be a challenge with elbows up. 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