Latest news with #Multi-levelRegressionandPost-stratification
The National
6 days ago
- Politics
- The National
John Curtice: Pro-independence Holyrood majority 'matters for future'
Speaking during a live recording of the Holyrood Sources podcast in Edinburgh on Wednesday evening, the polling expert also warned it is 'not inconceivable' that Nigel Farage's Reform UK win an outright majority at Westminster at the next General Election. Hours earlier, Electoral Calculus had published a Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll of 5400 UK voters which projected that Reform UK would win 31% of the vote and 377 Westminster seats – none of which were in Scotland. Labour were projected to drop to just 118 MPs on 22%, and the Tories to just 29 MPs – below the LibDems on 69. Curtice told the Holyrood Sources podcast that no UK party in the history of political polling had lost support as quickly after being elected as Keir Starmer's Labour Party had. READ MORE: EU, taxes, and Labour 'out of step': What we learned in John Curtice's polling report He said that in 2024 Labour's 'essential appeal was, 'well, we know you don't like the SNP, so you need to vote for us to send a message to them, and we know you hate the Tories, so you need to vote for us'. 'The trouble is that they are now in government – and the truth is one of the key messages of the 2024 election was that being in government sucks.' Curtice added: 'Then essentially the whole of the Scottish revival for Labour that began actually with Partygate, continued with Liz Truss, much like the case south of the border, and only latterly was to do with the difficulties of the SNP. All of that has gone.' In Scotland, the University of Strathclyde professor said that Reform's support was not as strong as south of the border because the party's vote is 'heavily embedded in those who voted Leave'. Scotland voted to Remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum by 62% to 38%. However, Curtice said that Reform and Labour were both running at around one-fifth of the Scottish vote, adding that Farage's party, 'if they can run at that kind of level on the regional list vote, they will have a significant presence in the Holyrood chamber'. File photo of polling expert Professor John Curtice (Image: BBC) 'There are various possibilities at this point, and this is why the election's still a knife edge,' the polling expert went on. 'It's still possible, because of the way in which the electoral system operates and because the SNP – although they're only at 33%, are currently something like 14-15 points over everybody else – could get so much in terms of the constituency seats that we might still just get a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, and that matters, by the way, for the future of politics. 'But equally, it's also perfectly possible that we will get an SNP government that looks much closer to the one of 2007 to 2011 in terms of its position in the parliament. 'But of course the crucial difference between now and then is that there is no prospect of Russell Findlay being the person who keeps the SNP minority government going, which is what Annabel Goldie did between 2007 and 2011. 'So I think therefore managing that parliament could be – you talked earlier on about the SNP will still be in power. Well, they might still be in office. I think what's still at stake in this election is whether the SNP will still be in power.'
Yahoo
15-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
How well could Reform perform in the local elections?
"We're here, and we're here to stay," Reform UK leader Nigel Farage told a crowd in County Durham during a campaign speech on Tuesday. With his party standing more candidates in the upcoming local elections on 1 May than either Labour or the Conservative Party, Farage lauded recent polling for Reform as "astonishing progress". "Our support is coming directly from people who have been, in many cases, life-long Labour voters," he said, claiming his right-wing anti-immigration party is now 'the opposition to the Labour Party". Farage said Reform had made gains in council by-elections in recent weeks, including in the Longdendale ward in Tameside and the Blackbrook ward in St Helens. "It is going to be, I think, incredibly close in Runcorn. So in the Midlands, in the North, in Wales and in Scotland, Reform is now the opposition to the Labour Party, with the Conservatives trailing some way behind," he said. "The sheer level of betrayal of what people who voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 got, they didn't get the Brexit they voted for... those people are not ever going to trust the Conservative Party again." With Farage striking such an optimistic tone at Tuesday's speech, how well is the party really expected to do in next month's elections? At his speech in County Durham, Farage claimed Reform was 'parking their tanks on the lawns of the red wall', referring to the historic heartlands of Labour in the Midlands and North of England. This claim is supported by a new poll, carried out by Survation for the Sun, which has shown that since the general election in July 2024, Reform UK's popularity in the North and Midlands has risen from 18% to 30%. Meanwhile Labour's vote share in these regions has dropped from 39% to 27%, while the Tories have suffered a smaller fall from 24% to 22%. Survation said that among likely voters in this year's local elections across the region, Reform currently is expected to hold 29% of the vote share, compared to 24% for the Conservatives, and 20% for Labour. The polling suggests that Reform is securing its status as the main threat to Labour. When asked to name the party most likely to threaten Labour in this year's local elections, 44% of respondents chose Reform – well ahead of the Conservatives (26%) and Liberal Democrats (8%). A local election poll carried out by Electoral Calculus puts Reform on equal footing with the Conservatives, with 25% of the vote. The poll was put together using Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification (MRP), a relatively recent technique that has successfully predicted the last three general elections, and gives the estimated result in each local authority. It suggests Labour is only on 18%, just ahead of the Liberal Democrats at 17%. Recent projections by J.L. Partners suggest that Reform UK and the Conservatives would be "neck-and-neck" if a general election was to be held now. The market research company's POLARIS model, which uses data from council by-elections to predict election outcomes mid-cycle, suggests Labour would lose its majority in the House of Commons. It puts Keir Starmer's party at 218 seats, the Tories at 136 and Reform biting at their heels with 135 seats in Parliament. Meanwhile YouGov's voting intention poll, released today, suggests 23% of voters would choose Reform now, compared to 24% for the Tories and Labour. Despite the upbeat and hopeful messaging of Labour as it entered office nearly a year ago, the party has taken plenty of opportunities to upset the British electorate, including over its proposed welfare cuts. Data compiled by the Disability Poverty Campaign Group suggests at least 80 Labour MPs are at risk of losing their majorities over the planned reforms. This, the group suggests, is because these MPs have a majority in their constituencies that is smaller than the number of disabled people who face having their benefits slashed. Some particularly at risk constituencies for Labour include Ribble Valley in Lancashire, Derbyshire Dales, South West Norfolk, Middlesborough South and East Cleveland, and Lichfield. Responding to the findings, former shadow employment minister Andy McDonald told the Guardian: "The government's welfare reforms disproportionately hit constituents who can least afford it and that is particularly so in the constituencies of many Labour MPs. It poses a real electoral risk." Polling by More in Common and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation also found that 58% of people think cuts to disability benefits are a bad idea, with "particularly strong" objections among key parts of Labour's voter base, such as "progressive activists", "civic pragmatists" and "loyal nationalists". New polling with @Moreincommon_ finds 58% of people think the cuts to disability benefits are a bad are particularly strong in some key parts of Labour's voter coalition (see progressive activists, civic pragmatists & loyal nationals below) — Katie Schmuecker (@KatieSchmuecker) April 2, 2025 However despite this pattern, Tom Lubbock, founding director of J.L. Partners, told Yahoo News that he has not seen any indication that benefit reforms are driving voters away from Labour in significant numbers. However, he suggested a number of other factors are pushing Labour supporters into Reform's hands – mainly a lack of enthusiasm over how Starmer's government has been doing so far. Lubbock said that Reform UK had a "post Christmas bloat" but have "really plateaued" in the last two months and have "stopped making progress". "It's a combination of what's happened since the general election... Labour essentially took our a playbook which said 'let's make ourselves as unpopular as we can in 12 months," he said. He cited "talking down of the economy", constraints on the budget, the review of agricultural property relief (APR) for farmers and a general sense that "nothing was getting any better" as the cost of living remained high. "Labour have found their floor for the time being," he added, which is also benefiting Farage's party, adding that a broadly similar number of Conservative and Labour supporters have gravitated towards Reform. "Most of it is a messaging or comms issue, I don't think anyone expected the NHS to immediately improve, there has just not really been any positive change, or it has been very, very slow." Meanwhile, Lubbock said, many voters concerned about illegal immigration feel that having criticised Rishi Sunak for "over-promising and under-delivering", Labour has done the same when it comes to stopping people smuggling gangs and illegal migration. YouGov polling from January suggests 18% of people who would consider voting for Reform would do so because of its policies on immigration – the biggest single reason other than "another party needs to go/better than the rest". Polling by YouGov from March said the "negativity about the economy is highest among those who voted for right-wing parties". YouGov also found that only 14% of voters thought Chancellor Rachel Reeves was doing a good job. Like him or loathe him, Farage has a strong presence, and while Lubbock said he can certainly claim a lot of credit for Reform's successes, there are wider issues at play here. "You can see how far Reform got without him, which is not nowhere but any about halfway to where they are now," he said, adding that the party has "advanced further" since Farage expressed his intention to lead the party. He said that while Reform's leader is certainly a "valuable asset", voter intention is not a "poll of Nigel Farage" and that there is a wider pattern of "rebellion" against the two parties who have dominated British elections for countless decades. "Don't underestimate the protest vote in British politics," he added, "it is extremely strong both in general elections and local elections." Read more Farage: We're parking our tanks on Labour's Red Wall lawn (The Telegraph) Nigel Farage Was Asked How He Plans To Pay For All Of Reform's Policies – And Couldn't Answer (HuffPost) Reform UK treasurer Candy sweet on merger of payments firms (Sky News)
