OCBC CUTS MALAYSIA'S 2025 GDP FORECAST TO 4.3 PCT
OCBC Chief Economist Selena Ling speaks during a press conference at The Linc today on the 2025 Economic Outlook, focusing on the global economy following the announcement of new tariff policies by the US government on April 2 this year.
KUALA LUMPUR, April 22 (Bernama) -- OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Bhd has revised Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2025 to 4.3 per cent from 4.5 per cent on a weaker external demand outlook.
Chief economist and head of global market research and strategy Selena Ling said the adjustment reflects growing concerns over weakening external demand and persistent global economic headwinds.
She said the 4.3 per cent growth projection is based on a 24 per cent reciprocal tariff on Malaysian exports to the US announced in early April.
'But, this is the big caveat, there's downside risk. For Malaysia, semiconductors and electronics and electrical (E&E) exports are very important; it's almost 80 per cent of Malaysia's total exports to the US.
'So at some point, if the semiconductor tariff does come in, there will be further pressure on growth. Our worst case scenario, we are probably looking somewhere closer to 3.5 per cent,' she told the media during OCBC's 2025 economic outlook today.
She said the exemptions for semiconductors and associated products have provided some reprieve because about 46 per cent of Malaysia's exports to the US are still exempt from tariffs based on the latest regulations.
This includes E&E appliances products, and encompasses electronic integrated circuits, photovoltaic cells, communication apparatus and automatic data processing machines.
More importantly, the US Trump administration has not ruled out the imposition of a semiconductor tariff, which will impact the economy, she said.
Ling noted that Malaysia's 24 per cent reciprocal tariff rate is lower than Vietnam's 46 per cent, Cambodia's 49 per cent, Thailand's 37 per cent and Laos' 48 per cent. This allows it to maintain its relative competitiveness for companies geared towards exporting to the US.
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