South-east Asia's export rush wanes as tariff clock ticks down
While April's export data climbed year on year across much of the region, a closer look reveals a month-on-month slowdown that is already hitting Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, with the rest of South-east Asia likely to follow by the second half of the year.
April trade figures suggest not just front-loading, but also a possible rerouting of US-destined China-origin goods through Asean economies, said Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying. Such front-loading means Asian export growth in the second quarter of the year could be stronger than projected, noted the duo in a May 28 report.
But they warned that this may just be 'a brief respite before an Asian export slump in H2, driven by the inevitable payback from front-loading and an overall slowdown in global trade activity caused by the highest US tariff rates in over 80 years and historically high business uncertainty'.
The major exporters in trade-reliant South-east Asia – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore – face a looming slowdown. On the other hand, the Philippines – a net importer – saw front-loading taper off early. It could ultimately benefit from trade diversion and a potential US deal, as tariffs position its goods to become more competitive.
The Business Times breaks down how the shifting trade tide is unfolding across the region.
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Singapore: surge now, strain later
Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 12.4 per cent in April – the fastest pace since July 2024 – driven by gains in both electronics and non-electronics, with the former buoyed by current tariff exemptions.
The surprise jump was largely driven by front-loading, as exporters raced to capitalise on the tariff pause and get ahead of looming sector-specific duties on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
The current boost is 'really no consolation', as advanced sales mean that exports will slow when markets have stocked up, said Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong recently as he gave an update on the work of the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce.
Gan, who leads Singapore's tariff talks with the US, said Washington is open to discussion on 'some form of concession' in the impending sectoral tariffs, though it will not budge on the baseline 10 per cent duty.
Economists warned of medium to long-term risks amid uncertainty over Trump's next move, though sentiment has improved with the unexpectedly swift easing of US-China trade tensions, said UOB's Jester Koh.
But OCBC chief economist Selena Ling warned that whether the two players can reach a permanent trade deal remains to be seen.
DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng flagged that global trade frictions remain elevated compared to pre-Trump 2.0 which could be a drag on Singapore's 2025 exports, though likely less severe than earlier feared. — ELYSIA TAN
Malaysia: trade momentum meets tariff jitters
Malaysia's exports rose 16.4 per cent year on year to RM133.6 billion (S$40.5 billion) in April, as exporters rushed to beat a now-delayed US tariff hike. The jump, from RM114.7 billion a year earlier, was led by a 9.1 per cent rise in domestic exports and a 46 per cent surge in re-exports, driven by strong global demand for electrical and electronic products.
Electrical and electronic exports, led by semiconductors and data processing equipment, jumped 35.4 per cent year on year, marking five straight months of double-digit growth.
Malaysia's total trade rose 7.2 per cent in the first four months of 2025, with MIDF Research expecting export growth to hold over the next few months as firms take advantage of the temporary tariff reprieve.
Analysts remain cautious, with MIDF forecasting a slowdown in export growth to 2 per cent and imports to rise 4.5 per cent, as trade uncertainty and tariff risks persist. Bank Negara expects front-loaded exports to normalise soon.
UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting flagged ongoing uncertainty as US trade talks continue, noting firms may scale back production on weaker demand expectations. Pending clearer outcomes, UOB maintains its 2025 export growth for Malaysia forecast at 3.8 per cent. — TAN AI LENG
Thailand: export fever cooling
Thailand may have notched its tenth straight month of year-on-year export growth in April, but the pre-tariff shipping rush is losing steam. Exports rose 10.2 per cent from the prior year – a clear pullback from March's 17.8 per cent surge.
Thailand posted US$25.6 billion in exports in April, amounting to a US$3.3 billion trade deficit, revealed data released by the kingdom on May 26.
Bank of America's emerging Asia economist Pipat Luengnaruemitchai said April's cooling confirms the house's view that the strong first-quarter performance was temporary, driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of anticipated tariffs.
In a May 26 report on Thailand's trade balance, he said: 'Combined with limited domestic production gains and increasing external pressure, Thailand's export and trade balance outlook remains weak in the coming quarters.'
He added that more Chinese products may enter the kingdom as Beijing sources for alternative markets.
Industrial and agro-industrial products continue to be key growth drivers of Thailand's exports.
Notably, a jump in gold exports for a second month kept Thailand's exports robust. Maybank analysts Erica Tay and Chua Hak Bin noted in a recent report that exports of the yellow metal surged 250.5 per cent in April (and 269.5 per cent in March), which accounted for a third of export growth in Thailand – one of the largest physical gold trading hubs.
While there is little visibility on bilateral trade talks with the US, the house expects tariffs on Thailand to stay within 30 per cent. — GOH RUOXUE
Vietnam: tariff boost to factory blues
Vietnam posted strong export growth in April, driven by a spike in orders after the US delayed its 'Liberation Day' tariffs and temporarily exempted some electronic goods.
Despite facing a looming 46 per cent reciprocal tariff – among the highest in Asia – Vietnam's exports and imports surged in April by 19.8 per cent and 22.9 per cent year on year to US$37.45 billion and US$36.87 billion, respectively, Vietnam Customs indicated. However, exports dipped 2.8 per cent from March, while imports were flat.
Vietnam's electronics exports surged nearly 59 per cent in April, while footwear and textiles rose more than 20 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, boosting its trade surplus with the US by 25 per cent in the first four months of 2025. At the same time, its trade deficit with China widened by more than 44 per cent.
The balance of trade is a key point in the tariff negotiations between Hanoi and Washington. The two countries concluded their second round of trade talks on May 22 and are expected to continue in early June, based on a statement from Vietnam's trade ministry.
So far, Hanoi has not only offered to purchase more US goods and reduced tariffs on certain imports, but has also taken steps to address Washington's non-tariff concerns, including fraud related to the origin of goods transshipped from China.
Tariff uncertainty is dampening sentiment among Vietnamese manufacturers, with business confidence sinking to its lowest since August 2021, according to S&P Global's April purchasing manager's index survey.
Factory activity shrank at the fastest pace since May 2023, as new orders and overseas demand had sharp declines. — JAMILLE TRAN
Indonesia: short-term gains, long-term doubts
Indonesia's exports climbed 5.8 per cent year on year in April to US$20.7 billion, driven by a 60 per cent increase in electrical machinery shipments and solid gains in iron and steel.
Meanwhile, imports jumped 21.8 per cent year on year to US$20.6 billion in April, outpacing export growth and dragging the monthly trade surplus down to a five-year low of US$158.8 million, based on data released by the statistics agency on Jun 2.
On a monthly basis, Indonesia's exports dropped 10.8 per cent, which Permata Bank economist Josua Pardede attributed to the typical slowdown during the Eid holidays.
'Additionally, weaker prices for key commodities like crude palm oil and coal are expected to have contributed to the monthly decline,' he said.
Exports to the US jumped 18.4 per cent year on year in April, with Bank Central Asia economist David Sumual attributing the rise to front-loading shipments ahead of impending US tariffs.
Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the US were driven by machinery and electrical equipment, up 17 per cent, alongside solid gains in footwear and apparel. This helped deliver a US$5.4 billion trade surplus with the US from January to April – now under scrutiny as Washington considers a 32 per cent tariff on key sectors.
In contrast, Indonesia posted a US$6.9 billion trade deficit with China over the same period, driven by surging imports of machinery, vehicles parts and electronics.
Sumual said: 'It appears there is also dumping of goods from China ahead of the tariff deadline.'
Maybank economist Brian Lee said the rerouting and import surge from China will likely ease in May and reduce pressure on the trade surplus, given China's trade deal with the US that cut tariffs to 30 per cent from 145 per cent for 90 days.
Economists at Samuel Sekuritas wrote while exports are expected to stay positive, global uncertainties and a weaker rupiah could limit gains and raise import costs. — ELISA VALENTA
The Philippines: modest tariffs, muted trade
Front-loading tied to the Philippines tapered off after the announcement of the tariffs, which imposed a relatively modest 17 per cent levy – the second-lowest among Asean countries after Singapore.
If enacted after the 90-day pause, the lower tariff could make Philippine goods more competitive in the US, positioning the net-importing nation to attract diverted trade and investment despite its limited reliance on export-led growth.
'We'll have to wait and see if this does materialise into better export volumes to the US,' said Nicholas Antonio T Mapa, chief economist at Metropolitan Bank. ANZ Research expects a trade agreement between Manila and Washington could be struck by the end of June, with a possible lower tariff rate of 10 to 15 per cent.
Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed weaker trade in April, with total value down 2 per cent year on year.
Exports rose 7 per cent but marked their slowest growth this year and fell 9.2 per cent from March, while imports dropped 7.2 per cent year on year and 8 per cent monthly – the first decline since December. Electronics remained the top export, accounting for more than half of outbound sales. The trade deficit from January to April narrowed slightly to US$15.9 billion.
April's import slump reversed the sharp 17.8 per cent surge seen in March – the strongest since August 2022. The steepest drop came from mineral fuels and lubricants, down 35.1 per cent, while imports of raw materials and intermediate goods – a key gauge of production outlook – swung from a 22.4 per cent rise to an 11 per cent decline.
'It was partly tied to softer prices (on weakening greenback) but perhaps also evidence of moderating demand,' added Mapa.
The Philippines' economy relies heavily on domestic consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product. –– JAMILLE TRAN
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CNA
28 minutes ago
- CNA
IN FOCUS: Subletting of hawker stalls an 'open secret' despite decade-long ban
SINGAPORE: After closing a Western food stall at a coffee shop last year, Mr Ng set his sights on a new goal – opening a hawker stall with his wife to sell artisanal and traditional coffee. Rather than bid for a tender through the National Environment Agency (NEA), the 31-year-old visited about 10 hawker centres to look for a stall to sublet. 'The only reason why I'll choose to sublet is because … good places will never be given up,' said Mr Ng, who did not want his full name published. Although Singapore prohibits the subletting of hawker stalls, the practice has persisted. Experts say it undermines the intent of hawker centres, which are meant to offer affordable food and support small-scale entrepreneurship. 'If the government were to allow subletting, it would attract a more commercially oriented type of vendor, the same sort of people who are already in the food courts and the kopitiams,' said National University of Singapore (NUS) economist Ivan Png. Such vendors would 'price more commercially' and food costs would go up, he added. Experts also point to the principle at stake – that subsidised hawker stalls should not be used for private gain. But most of the 20 hawkers CNA spoke to said it is an 'open secret' that under-the-table subletting arrangements are common across hawker centres. The ban on subletting was introduced in 2012. Stallholders were given a three-year grace period to adjust, and current rules require successful tenderers or their registered joint operators to personally run the stall for at least four hours daily. BETTER LOCATION, HIGHER FOOTFALL Mr Ng said he would prefer to go through NEA's official tender process if better locations were available. 'At the end of the day … that stall is not yours. So anytime, if the real owner wants to take back right, there's nothing you can do,' he said about sublet stalls. But the stalls available for tender are often not ideal, Mr Ng said. 'You know every single shop will 'toh' one, what's the point?' he said, using the Hokkien term for 'fail'. He has been quoted S$8,000 (US$6,300) to sublet a popular stall in Chinatown, and as low as S$2,000 for stalls in less crowded areas. The median rent for non-subsidised hawker stalls has remained at around S$1,250 monthly between 2015 and 2023, Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu said earlier this year. Those on the subsidised rental scheme typically pay S$192, S$320 or S$384 per month, Ms Fu said in a parliamentary response in 2023. But as older hawkers retired, the proportion of subsidised stallholders fell from 40 per cent in 2013 to 30 per cent over the same period. Mr Melvin Chew, who runs Jin Ji Teochew Braised Duck and Kway Chap at Chinatown Complex, said most prime-location stalls are still held by older hawkers. 'You can hardly tender for such good location unless the existing hawkers are willing to give up or return to NEA,' said the 47-year-old. 'So most people will hunt for such stalls.' COMPETITIVE BIDS The limited number of stalls available for tender means that bidding can be competitive. Mr Tan, a hawker who sublet a stall to sell Chinese desserts, said bids for government-run hawker stalls were 'way too high' for him. People often bid 'crazy' prices, the 39-year-old added. In one 2024 case, a stall at Marine Parade Central drew a record bid of over S$10,000. Dr Koh Poh Koon, the senior minister of state for the environment ministry then, said that such bids were outliers and 'not the norm'. How to bid for a hawker stall through NEA NEA holds tender exercises for vacant stalls on its website, typically from the 13th to the 26th of every month. The five highest bids are published about one week after the tender closes, and the final results are released five to seven weeks later. There are no minimum bid prices and stalls are awarded to the highest qualifying bid. Successful bid prices are also published on NEA's website as a reference to guide future tenderers. In November last year, NEA revised its rental renewal policy to reduce inflated bids. Previously, tenderers could put in high bids to secure the stall, as their tendered rent would be adjusted downwards to the assessed market rate after three years. Now, rental for the second tenancy term is adjusted downwards by 50 per cent of the difference between the tendered and assessed market rates. But Mr Tan said many available stalls were designated for Halal or Indian food, which he did not want to sell. Of 34 stalls in the latest tender in July, 26 stalls were designated as such. Mr Tan, who sublets a stall at a hawker centre in the west, pays about S$4,100 for rent, while the original stallholder pays about S$2,600. 'I have no choice, because these people don't let go,' he said. 'How I get to bid, I can't bid at all, right?' Some see subletting as more affordable than renting from privately run coffee shops. One hawker who wanted to be known only as Tim said he pays a 'reasonable' S$3,000 a month to sublet a hawker stall in Bukit Merah. The 34-year-old, who runs a noodles stall, said he sees subletting as a 'win-win' solution. 'I pay less rent and my business is good. At the same time, I managed to help the stall owner so that they don't have to work already.' He pointed out that many veteran hawkers have been working for decades and still need income in their retirement. 'You are killing people's careers and lives if you don't let them sublet,' he said. 'If they return (the stall) to NEA, what do they do? They still have things to pay for in life.' Anecdotally, most stallholders who rent out their stalls are older hawkers seeking passive income. While most sublet their stall for slightly higher than what they pay for rent, some 'spoil market' by charging 'very high prices', said Jin Ji Teochew Braised Duck's Mr Chew, who also founded the Facebook group Hawkers United - Dabao 2020. Under the Hawker's Succession Scheme, veteran hawkers planning to retire can pass down their skills, recipes and stalls to aspiring hawkers. Those who return their stall to NEA and exit the trade receive a one-off ex gratia payment of S$23,000. But many see the payout as modest compared to what they can earn by renting out the stall or arranging a private takeover. In such takeovers, buyers pay an agreed fee directly to the original stallholder before applying for a transfer of ownership. A hawker in his early 60s told CNA he put his drinks stall up for takeover at around S$80,000. After 40 years in the trade, he hopes to retire due to poor health. With help from a property agent, he has received a few enquiries so far. FINDINGS STALLS TO SUBLET Former hawker Khoo Keat Hwee, who used to run Mentai-Ya Japanese Cuisine, said it is common for those seeking stalls to visit hawker centres in person. He recalled being approached several times a year by property agents. Mr Khoo, 38, who is now an F&B consultant, said the 'most ridiculous' quote he heard was S$8,500 a month to rent a stall at a hawker centre in Bedok. CNA also found listings for hawker stalls on platforms such as Carousell and Facebook, with monthly rents ranging from S$2,900 for a stall in Jurong West to S$4,000 for one near Rochor. One Toa Payoh stall was listed for takeover at a staggering S$168,888. In the past year, there were at least 10 such posts in a Facebook group, seven listings on Carousell and one on property platform Carousell said sellers are responsible for ensuring listings comply with local laws, and it is 'not privy to and not in a position to enforce' third-party agreements. Facebook and did not respond to queries. KNOCK-ON EFFECT ON PRICES Some argue that subletting helps preserve variety in hawker centres. Food critic KF Seetoh said it can 'add to the colour of the culture'. 'It's a win-win for both original hawkers and the new player, and customers won't really care much as long as food is affordable and good,' he said. But others warn of a knock-on effect on prices. Mr Khoo said sublet stalls tend to charge more. For example, a plate of chicken rice may be priced at S$5 to S$6 compared with the national average of S$3.80 in 2023. 'The whole ecosystem will be affected,' he said. 'At the end of the day, food prices will not be as cheap or as affordable as they're supposed to be.' Mr Ng, the hawker looking for a stall to sublet, acknowledged that if he were to pay a much higher rent, he would need to price his coffee higher. 'I'll need to cut down my cost to maybe S$3 a cup. That's also very expensive for iced coffee,' he said. Dr Tan Ern Ser, adjunct principal research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, pointed out that subletting was banned to curb rental hikes, which could ultimately drive up food prices. Allowing subletting would run counter to the intent behind hawker centres, which is to encourage entrepreneurship and preserve hawker culture, he added. LOOPHOLES AND ENFORCEMENT In March, Dr Koh said in a Facebook post that detecting subletting 'isn't always straightforward'. 'Subletting is done under the table, and NEA has to conduct thorough investigations to uncover and substantiate such cases,' he said. Requiring stallholders to physically operate their stalls remains the 'most practical and fair way' of preventing subletting. In 2024, NEA identified and warned more than 230 stalls that were not personally operated by registered stallholders. More than 100 terminated their tenancy. Others resumed personal operations or provided valid reasons for their absence, such as medical conditions, Dr Koh said. Earlier this week, I explained in Parliament the importance of NEA requiring a hawker to personally operate a stall in... Posted by Koh Poh Koon - 许宝琨 on Friday, March 14, 2025 In response to CNA's queries, NEA said it conducts thorough investigations to uncover and substantiate subletting cases. This includes gathering photo evidence, conducting interviews and performing repeated checks before action is taken. Members of the public who suspect a hawker stall is subletting can inform NEA, which will look into cases that have reasonable grounds for investigation, the agency said. Still, hawkers told CNA that some stallholders register sublessees as workers to evade detection. An ayam penyet hawker in his 40s told CNA he is looking to rent out one of the two stalls he has for about S$4,000 a month, despite paying only S$2,000 for it. To avoid detection, he plans to register the sublessees as his workers, keeping the stall under his name. 'The only difference is they get the income,' he said. When asked how he would respond to government inspectors, he replied: 'The ruling is you have to be at the stall. We are at the stall.' Tim, the hawker subletting in Bukit Merah, said the original stallholder is present almost daily and remains on-site when inspectors visit. Such inspections are conducted regularly and at random times. Veteran hawker Niven Leong of Sin Kee Famous Chicken Rice said many enter the trade as entrepreneurs, not traditional hawkers. 'I am a businessman, I'm not a hawker,' said the 65-year-old of such hawkers. 'The mentality is different.' "GRASPING SAND" In March, a hawker's Facebook complaint that his pregnant wife was 'forced' to man their stall in Yishun sparked renewed scrutiny of the rules. Experts say enforcement is no simple task. NEA oversees over 6,000 cooked food stalls across 123 markets and hawker centres. Author and researcher Ryan Kueh, who wrote From Streets to Stalls, said enforcement must be balanced with empathy for older hawkers who have legitimate reasons for not being able to operate their stalls personally. 'I do think NEA does its best to look at this on a case-by-case basis,' he said. 'Obviously, there will always be individuals who try and test the system, and I do think those individuals should be clamped down on hard.' Assistant Professor of Urban Studies Aidan Wong from the Singapore Management University likened the situation to 'grasping sand'. 'Too loose, and you get the problems of this idea that widespread subletting is occurring. Hold it too tightly, and you disincentivise any form of public hawkering,' he said. Adjunct Associate Professor Terence Ho from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at NUS added that subletting could make it more difficult for genuine hawkers to obtain a stall. Unlike coffee shops, hawker stalls are intended to provide Singaporeans with the opportunity to run a small food business, he said. 'There is an element of wanting to preserve Singapore's distinctive hawker heritage, rather than have big chains with hired workers take over the running of hawker stalls,' he added. Younger hawkers are already feeling its effects. 'We can't go in, the barrier is getting higher,' said Mr Tan, the Chinese desserts hawker. Big players with deeper pockets will be able to bid higher prices and crowd out new entrants, he added. Mr Ng, the hawker searching for a stall to sublet for his artisanal coffee business, still hopes to run his own stall one day. While he acknowledges that the current system makes it difficult for younger hawkers to enter the trade, he said he understands why some choose to sublet their stalls for passive income. 'Humans are humans. Nobody will say no to money,' he said, adding that a harsh clampdown on subletting could have unintended consequences. 'It might actually make a lot of people lose their rice bowl.'
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