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Time of India
03-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Donald Trump's tariff wars: US announces trade deal with Vietnam; is India next? Why China should be worried
US officials are actively negotiating with key trading allies in Asia and Europe before July 9, seeking arrangements that could limit Chinese involvement. (AI image) US President Donald Trump's trade policies, tariff wars, and moves to seal trade deals with major trading partners in Asia and Europe has China increasingly on the guard - and rightly so! These trade deals could potentially separate Chinese companies from global supply networks, despite the recently announced trade truce between the US and China. US officials are actively negotiating with key trading allies in Asia and Europe before July 9, seeking arrangements that could limit Chinese involvement and address what the US considers unfair trade practices by China. The temporary 90-day suspension by Trump on what he termed "reciprocal" tariffs affecting many US trading partners concludes on July 9. These countries risk facing substantially higher tariffs if they fail to establish trade agreements with the US. Many countries are taking steps to maintain positive relations with Washington. Since Trump's tariff announcement in April, Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea have implemented regulations to prevent product rerouting through their territories to the US. Also Read | What is Donald Trump's net worth? Billionaire US President has a big portfolio of cryptocurrencies, stocks & more - top details South Korean authorities have intensified their efforts against transshipments, noting an increase in such activities. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te addressed this concern and subsequently introduced regulations requiring all US-destined exports to include legal certification of their Taiwanese origin. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 2025 Top Trending local enterprise accounting software [Click Here] Esseps Learn More Undo How US Trade Deal With Vietnam Will Hit China President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday a new tariff structure with Vietnam, marking the first such arrangement. According to Trump's social media announcement, Vietnamese exports to the US will face a 20% tariff, while goods identified as being transshipped through the country will incur a 40% charge. This arrangement will affect products containing Chinese components that are either minimally processed in Vietnam or simply routed through the country before reaching the US. This structure reflects similar provisions found in existing US trade agreements with Mexico and Canada. The complete details of the agreement remain undisclosed by the White House, with some aspects possibly still under development. The impact on China's increasing exports to Vietnam is yet to be determined. China's Ministry of Commerce has not yet provided a response to enquiries. India, which is reportedly close to finalising a deal, is discussing "rules of origin" requirements. The US is seeking a minimum of 60% local value addition for products to qualify as "Made in India" and receive benefits under the agreement. According to Bloomberg News, India is attempting to negotiate this requirement down to approximately 35%. World's Trading Dilemma & China's Warning The trade war predicament facing Asia centres on its dual reliance: needing US consumer markets while depending on Chinese manufacturing inputs, according to Alicia Garcia Herrero, Asia-Pacific chief economist at Natixis SA. According to the Bloomberg report, in her recent analysis, she highlighted that Vietnam, Cambodia and Taiwan face particularly high exposure to this situation. Also Read | From 'dead' to 'hottest in world': Donald Trump calls 'Big, Beautiful Bill' the path to US making a 'fortune'; says America growing out of 'Biden mess' For most Asian economies, China represents a more significant trading relationship than the United States. Beijing has issued stern warnings about protecting its interests, with Foreign Minister Wang Yi expected to emphasise this position during his upcoming European diplomatic mission to Brussels, Germany and France. "China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of Chinese interests in exchange for so-called tariff reductions," said the Ministry of Commerce on Saturday, reiterating previous cautions. "If this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely counter it to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests." According to Bloomberg Economics, Vietnam's trade agreement could trigger retaliatory measures from China. "Beijing has signalled its intention to address arrangements that undermined Chinese interests, and the acceptance of increased tariffs on products 'transshipped' through Vietnam could be considered such a case," Bloomberg's Rana Sajedi noted in a research analysis. Challenge for China & Its Worry The United States' potential influence on other nations to strengthen or implement export restrictions on advanced technology poses a significant challenge for Beijing, particularly regarding its acquisition of essential semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In June, Taiwan expanded its restricted entities catalogue to include both Huawei Technologies Co. and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., requiring Taiwanese companies to obtain governmental clearance before engaging in business transactions with these firms. The situation extends beyond Asian borders. Europe faces its own complexities in this matter. China's electric vehicle exports predominantly flow to the EU, whilst Chinese investments in the EU and UK reached 10 billion euros ($12 billion) in the previous year, as documented by Rhodium Group. Also Read | US plans 'economic bunker buster' bill: Will Donald Trump impose 500% tariff on countries importing oil from Russia? How it may impact India However, commercial relations are becoming strained. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has recently criticised Beijing for its approach to rare earths and magnets, whilst highlighting concerns about Chinese industrial surplus. The European Union's potential agreement with the US has raised significant concerns in Beijing, particularly regarding provisions similar to those in the British-American deal, which encompassed supply chain security, export regulations and ownership guidelines for industries including steel, aluminium and pharmaceuticals. Although China was not explicitly mentioned, Beijing issued an unusual public critique of the agreement, viewing it as a direct challenge, according to the Financial Times. "China is clearly worried that the EU will accept the same wording as the UK did on export controls," said Joerg Wuttke, a partner at the Albright Stonebridge Group in Washington and former president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. "They are pushing the EU not to do this, and the US is pushing the EU to do it." The EU and US aim to establish an agreement before July 9, when American authorities plan to implement a 50 per cent tariff on virtually all European products. The EU considers the US relationship more vital, as European exports to America exceed twice the value of those to China, providing the US with substantial negotiating power. The primary challenge facing Beijing lies in the potential consolidation of these initiatives into a broader transformation - beyond US-led restrictions on Chinese exports to a fundamental restructuring of global commerce centred on 'trusted' supply networks, potentially marginalising China. During his Southeast Asian tour earlier this year, President Xi Jinping called for regional unity as an "Asian family," cautioning against commercial fragmentation. Also Read | Not just Apple iPhones! Android smartphone makers like Samsung, Motorola step up exports from India to US; move due to Trump's tariff policies China typically counters opposition through selective trade restrictions. Following EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last year, Beijing initiated anti-dumping investigations into European brandy, dairy and pork products. In 2023, it suspended Japanese seafood imports after perceiving criticism from G7 meetings in Japan. A diplomatic dispute with Australia in 2020 resulted in trade limitations affecting various commodities, including lobsters, wine and barley. "If some agreements explicitly list China as a target and show that some countries are cooperating or collaborating with the US to 'contain China,' then China will definitely respond," said Tu Xinquan, dean of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing and a former adviser to the Chinese Commerce Ministry. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now
Business Times
03-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Asean's export rush wanes as tariff clock ticks down
[SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR/HANOI/JAKARTA] South-east Asia's export boom may be running on borrowed time as traders rush to front-load goods ahead of the end of US President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff pause on Jul 9, masking signs of fading momentum. While April's export data climbed year on year across much of the region, a closer look reveals a month-on-month slowdown that is already hitting Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, with the rest of South-east Asia likely to follow by the second half of the year. April trade figures suggest not just front-loading, but also a possible rerouting of US-destined China-origin goods through Asean economies, said Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying. Such front-loading means Asian export growth in the second quarter of the year could be stronger than projected, noted the duo in a May 28 report. But they warned that this may just be 'a brief respite before an Asian export slump in H2, driven by the inevitable payback from front-loading and an overall slowdown in global trade activity caused by the highest US tariff rates in over 80 years and historically high business uncertainty'. The major exporters in trade-reliant South-east Asia – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore – face a looming slowdown. On the other hand, the Philippines – a net importer – saw front-loading taper off early. It could ultimately benefit from trade diversion and a potential US deal, as tariffs position its goods to become more competitive. The Business Times breaks down how the shifting trade tide is unfolding across the region. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Singapore: surge now, strain later Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 12.4 per cent in April – the fastest pace since July 2024 – driven by gains in both electronics and non-electronics, with the former buoyed by current tariff exemptions. The surprise jump was largely driven by front-loading, as exporters raced to capitalise on the tariff pause and get ahead of looming sector-specific duties on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The current boost is 'really no consolation', as advanced sales mean that exports will slow when markets have stocked up, said Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong recently as he gave an update on the work of the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce. Gan, who leads Singapore's tariff talks with the US, said Washington is open to discussion on 'some form of concession' in the impending sectoral tariffs, though it will not budge on the baseline 10 per cent duty. Economists warned of medium to long-term risks amid uncertainty over Trump's next move, though sentiment has improved with the unexpectedly swift easing of US-China trade tensions, said UOB's Jester Koh. But OCBC chief economist Selena Ling warned that whether the two players can reach a permanent trade deal remains to be seen. DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng flagged that global trade frictions remain elevated compared to pre-Trump 2.0 which could be a drag on Singapore's 2025 exports, though likely less severe than earlier feared. — ELYSIA TAN Malaysia: trade momentum meets tariff jitters Malaysia's exports rose 16.4 per cent year on year to RM133.6 billion (S$40.5 billion) in April, as exporters rushed to beat a now-delayed US tariff hike. The jump, from RM114.7 billion a year earlier, was led by a 9.1 per cent rise in domestic exports and a 46 per cent surge in re-exports, driven by strong global demand for electrical and electronic products. Electrical and electronic exports, led by semiconductors and data processing equipment, jumped 35.4 per cent year on year, marking five straight months of double-digit growth. Malaysia's total trade rose 7.2 per cent in the first four months of 2025, with MIDF Research expecting export growth to hold over the next few months as firms take advantage of the temporary tariff reprieve. Analysts remain cautious, with MIDF forecasting a slowdown in export growth to 2 per cent and imports to rise 4.5 per cent, as trade uncertainty and tariff risks persist. Bank Negara expects front-loaded exports to normalise soon. UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting flagged ongoing uncertainty as US trade talks continue, noting firms may scale back production on weaker demand expectations. Pending clearer outcomes, UOB maintains its 2025 export growth for Malaysia forecast at 3.8 per cent. — TAN AI LENG Thailand: export fever cooling Thailand may have notched its tenth straight month of year-on-year export growth in April, but the pre-tariff shipping rush is losing steam. Exports rose 10.2 per cent from the prior year – a clear pullback from March's 17.8 per cent surge. Thailand posted US$25.6 billion in exports in April, amounting to a US$3.3 billion trade deficit, revealed data released by the kingdom on May 26. Bank of America's emerging Asia economist Pipat Luengnaruemitchai said April's cooling confirms the house's view that the strong first-quarter performance was temporary, driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of anticipated tariffs. In a May 26 report on Thailand's trade balance, he said: 'Combined with limited domestic production gains and increasing external pressure, Thailand's export and trade balance outlook remains weak in the coming quarters.' He added that more Chinese products may enter the kingdom as Beijing sources for alternative markets. Industrial and agro-industrial products continue to be key growth drivers of Thailand's exports. Notably, a jump in gold exports for a second month kept Thailand's exports robust. Maybank analysts Erica Tay and Chua Hak Bin noted in a recent report that exports of the yellow metal surged 250.5 per cent in April (and 269.5 per cent in March), which accounted for a third of export growth in Thailand – one of the largest physical gold trading hubs. While there is little visibility on bilateral trade talks with the US, the house expects tariffs on Thailand to stay within 30 per cent. — GOH RUOXUE Vietnam: tariff boost to factory blues Vietnam posted strong export growth in April, driven by a spike in orders after the US delayed its 'Liberation Day' tariffs and temporarily exempted some electronic goods. Despite facing a looming 46 per cent reciprocal tariff – among the highest in Asia – Vietnam's exports and imports surged in April by 19.8 per cent and 22.9 per cent year on year to US$37.45 billion and US$36.87 billion, respectively, Vietnam Customs indicated. However, exports dipped 2.8 per cent from March, while imports were flat. Vietnam's electronics exports surged nearly 59 per cent in April, while footwear and textiles rose more than 20 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, boosting its trade surplus with the US by 25 per cent in the first four months of 2025. At the same time, its trade deficit with China widened by more than 44 per cent. The balance of trade is a key point in the tariff negotiations between Hanoi and Washington. The two countries concluded their second round of trade talks on May 22 and are expected to continue in early June, based on a statement from Vietnam's trade ministry. So far, Hanoi has not only offered to purchase more US goods and reduced tariffs on certain imports, but has also taken steps to address Washington's non-tariff concerns, including fraud related to the origin of goods transshipped from China. Tariff uncertainty is dampening sentiment among Vietnamese manufacturers, with business confidence sinking to its lowest since August 2021, according to S&P Global's April purchasing manager's index survey. Factory activity shrank at the fastest pace since May 2023, as new orders and overseas demand had sharp declines. — JAMILLE TRAN Indonesia: short-term gains, long-term doubts Indonesia's exports climbed 5.8 per cent year on year in April to US$20.7 billion, driven by a 60 per cent increase in electrical machinery shipments and solid gains in iron and steel. Meanwhile, imports jumped 21.8 per cent year on year to US$20.6 billion in April, outpacing export growth and dragging the monthly trade surplus down to a five-year low of US$158.8 million, based on data released by the statistics agency on Jun 2. On a monthly basis, Indonesia's exports dropped 10.8 per cent, which Permata Bank economist Josua Pardede attributed to the typical slowdown during the Eid holidays. 'Additionally, weaker prices for key commodities like crude palm oil and coal are expected to have contributed to the monthly decline,' he said. Exports to the US jumped 18.4 per cent year on year in April, with Bank Central Asia economist David Sumual attributing the rise to front-loading shipments ahead of impending US tariffs. Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the US were driven by machinery and electrical equipment, up 17 per cent, alongside solid gains in footwear and apparel. This helped deliver a US$5.4 billion trade surplus with the US from January to April – now under scrutiny as Washington considers a 32 per cent tariff on key sectors. In contrast, Indonesia posted a US$6.9 billion trade deficit with China over the same period, driven by surging imports of machinery, vehicles parts and electronics. Sumual said: 'It appears there is also dumping of goods from China ahead of the tariff deadline.' Maybank economist Brian Lee said the rerouting and import surge from China will likely ease in May and reduce pressure on the trade surplus, given China's trade deal with the US that cut tariffs to 30 per cent from 145 per cent for 90 days. Economists at Samuel Sekuritas wrote while exports are expected to stay positive, global uncertainties and a weaker rupiah could limit gains and raise import costs. — ELISA VALENTA The Philippines: modest tariffs, muted trade Front-loading tied to the Philippines tapered off after the announcement of the tariffs, which imposed a relatively modest 17 per cent levy – the second-lowest among Asean countries after Singapore. If enacted after the 90-day pause, the lower tariff could make Philippine goods more competitive in the US, positioning the net-importing nation to attract diverted trade and investment despite its limited reliance on export-led growth. 'We'll have to wait and see if this does materialise into better export volumes to the US,' said Nicholas Antonio T Mapa, chief economist at Metropolitan Bank. ANZ Research expects a trade agreement between Manila and Washington could be struck by the end of June, with a possible lower tariff rate of 10 to 15 per cent. Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed weaker trade in April, with total value down 2 per cent year on year. Exports rose 7 per cent but marked their slowest growth this year and fell 9.2 per cent from March, while imports dropped 7.2 per cent year on year and 8 per cent monthly – the first decline since December. Electronics remained the top export, accounting for more than half of outbound sales. The trade deficit from January to April narrowed slightly to US$15.9 billion. April's import slump reversed the sharp 17.8 per cent surge seen in March – the strongest since August 2022. The steepest drop came from mineral fuels and lubricants, down 35.1 per cent, while imports of raw materials and intermediate goods – a key gauge of production outlook – swung from a 22.4 per cent rise to an 11 per cent decline. 'It was partly tied to softer prices (on weakening greenback) but perhaps also evidence of moderating demand,' added Mapa. The Philippines' economy relies heavily on domestic consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product. –– JAMILLE TRAN
Business Times
03-06-2025
- Business
- Business Times
South-east Asia's export rush wanes as tariff clock ticks down
[SINGAPORE/KUALA LUMPUR/HANOI/JAKARTA] South-east Asia's export boom may be running on borrowed time as traders rush to front-load goods ahead of the end of US President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff pause on Jul 9, masking signs of fading momentum. While April's export data climbed year on year across much of the region, a closer look reveals a month-on-month slowdown that is already hitting Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, with the rest of South-east Asia likely to follow by the second half of the year. April trade figures suggest not just front-loading, but also a possible rerouting of US-destined China-origin goods through Asean economies, said Nomura analysts Rob Subbaraman and Toh Si Ying. Such front-loading means Asian export growth in the second quarter of the year could be stronger than projected, noted the duo in a May 28 report. But they warned that this may just be 'a brief respite before an Asian export slump in H2, driven by the inevitable payback from front-loading and an overall slowdown in global trade activity caused by the highest US tariff rates in over 80 years and historically high business uncertainty'. The major exporters in trade-reliant South-east Asia – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore – face a looming slowdown. On the other hand, the Philippines – a net importer – saw front-loading taper off early. It could ultimately benefit from trade diversion and a potential US deal, as tariffs position its goods to become more competitive. The Business Times breaks down how the shifting trade tide is unfolding across the region. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up Singapore: surge now, strain later Singapore's non-oil domestic exports surged 12.4 per cent in April – the fastest pace since July 2024 – driven by gains in both electronics and non-electronics, with the former buoyed by current tariff exemptions. The surprise jump was largely driven by front-loading, as exporters raced to capitalise on the tariff pause and get ahead of looming sector-specific duties on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. The current boost is 'really no consolation', as advanced sales mean that exports will slow when markets have stocked up, said Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong recently as he gave an update on the work of the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce. Gan, who leads Singapore's tariff talks with the US, said Washington is open to discussion on 'some form of concession' in the impending sectoral tariffs, though it will not budge on the baseline 10 per cent duty. Economists warned of medium to long-term risks amid uncertainty over Trump's next move, though sentiment has improved with the unexpectedly swift easing of US-China trade tensions, said UOB's Jester Koh. But OCBC chief economist Selena Ling warned that whether the two players can reach a permanent trade deal remains to be seen. DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng flagged that global trade frictions remain elevated compared to pre-Trump 2.0 which could be a drag on Singapore's 2025 exports, though likely less severe than earlier feared. — ELYSIA TAN Malaysia: trade momentum meets tariff jitters Malaysia's exports rose 16.4 per cent year on year to RM133.6 billion (S$40.5 billion) in April, as exporters rushed to beat a now-delayed US tariff hike. The jump, from RM114.7 billion a year earlier, was led by a 9.1 per cent rise in domestic exports and a 46 per cent surge in re-exports, driven by strong global demand for electrical and electronic products. Electrical and electronic exports, led by semiconductors and data processing equipment, jumped 35.4 per cent year on year, marking five straight months of double-digit growth. Malaysia's total trade rose 7.2 per cent in the first four months of 2025, with MIDF Research expecting export growth to hold over the next few months as firms take advantage of the temporary tariff reprieve. Analysts remain cautious, with MIDF forecasting a slowdown in export growth to 2 per cent and imports to rise 4.5 per cent, as trade uncertainty and tariff risks persist. Bank Negara expects front-loaded exports to normalise soon. UOB economists Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting flagged ongoing uncertainty as US trade talks continue, noting firms may scale back production on weaker demand expectations. Pending clearer outcomes, UOB maintains its 2025 export growth for Malaysia forecast at 3.8 per cent. — TAN AI LENG Thailand: export fever cooling Thailand may have notched its tenth straight month of year-on-year export growth in April, but the pre-tariff shipping rush is losing steam. Exports rose 10.2 per cent from the prior year – a clear pullback from March's 17.8 per cent surge. Thailand posted US$25.6 billion in exports in April, amounting to a US$3.3 billion trade deficit, revealed data released by the kingdom on May 26. Bank of America's emerging Asia economist Pipat Luengnaruemitchai said April's cooling confirms the house's view that the strong first-quarter performance was temporary, driven by front-loaded shipments ahead of anticipated tariffs. In a May 26 report on Thailand's trade balance, he said: 'Combined with limited domestic production gains and increasing external pressure, Thailand's export and trade balance outlook remains weak in the coming quarters.' He added that more Chinese products may enter the kingdom as Beijing sources for alternative markets. Industrial and agro-industrial products continue to be key growth drivers of Thailand's exports. Notably, a jump in gold exports for a second month kept Thailand's exports robust. Maybank analysts Erica Tay and Chua Hak Bin noted in a recent report that exports of the yellow metal surged 250.5 per cent in April (and 269.5 per cent in March), which accounted for a third of export growth in Thailand – one of the largest physical gold trading hubs. While there is little visibility on bilateral trade talks with the US, the house expects tariffs on Thailand to stay within 30 per cent. — GOH RUOXUE Vietnam: tariff boost to factory blues Vietnam posted strong export growth in April, driven by a spike in orders after the US delayed its 'Liberation Day' tariffs and temporarily exempted some electronic goods. Despite facing a looming 46 per cent reciprocal tariff – among the highest in Asia – Vietnam's exports and imports surged in April by 19.8 per cent and 22.9 per cent year on year to US$37.45 billion and US$36.87 billion, respectively, Vietnam Customs indicated. However, exports dipped 2.8 per cent from March, while imports were flat. Vietnam's electronics exports surged nearly 59 per cent in April, while footwear and textiles rose more than 20 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, boosting its trade surplus with the US by 25 per cent in the first four months of 2025. At the same time, its trade deficit with China widened by more than 44 per cent. The balance of trade is a key point in the tariff negotiations between Hanoi and Washington. The two countries concluded their second round of trade talks on May 22 and are expected to continue in early June, based on a statement from Vietnam's trade ministry. So far, Hanoi has not only offered to purchase more US goods and reduced tariffs on certain imports, but has also taken steps to address Washington's non-tariff concerns, including fraud related to the origin of goods transshipped from China. Tariff uncertainty is dampening sentiment among Vietnamese manufacturers, with business confidence sinking to its lowest since August 2021, according to S&P Global's April purchasing manager's index survey. Factory activity shrank at the fastest pace since May 2023, as new orders and overseas demand had sharp declines. — JAMILLE TRAN Indonesia: short-term gains, long-term doubts Indonesia's exports climbed 5.8 per cent year on year in April to US$20.7 billion, driven by a 60 per cent increase in electrical machinery shipments and solid gains in iron and steel. Meanwhile, imports jumped 21.8 per cent year on year to US$20.6 billion in April, outpacing export growth and dragging the monthly trade surplus down to a five-year low of US$158.8 million, based on data released by the statistics agency on Jun 2. On a monthly basis, Indonesia's exports dropped 10.8 per cent, which Permata Bank economist Josua Pardede attributed to the typical slowdown during the Eid holidays. 'Additionally, weaker prices for key commodities like crude palm oil and coal are expected to have contributed to the monthly decline,' he said. Exports to the US jumped 18.4 per cent year on year in April, with Bank Central Asia economist David Sumual attributing the rise to front-loading shipments ahead of impending US tariffs. Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports to the US were driven by machinery and electrical equipment, up 17 per cent, alongside solid gains in footwear and apparel. This helped deliver a US$5.4 billion trade surplus with the US from January to April – now under scrutiny as Washington considers a 32 per cent tariff on key sectors. In contrast, Indonesia posted a US$6.9 billion trade deficit with China over the same period, driven by surging imports of machinery, vehicles parts and electronics. Sumual said: 'It appears there is also dumping of goods from China ahead of the tariff deadline.' Maybank economist Brian Lee said the rerouting and import surge from China will likely ease in May and reduce pressure on the trade surplus, given China's trade deal with the US that cut tariffs to 30 per cent from 145 per cent for 90 days. Economists at Samuel Sekuritas wrote while exports are expected to stay positive, global uncertainties and a weaker rupiah could limit gains and raise import costs. — ELISA VALENTA The Philippines: modest tariffs, muted trade Front-loading tied to the Philippines tapered off after the announcement of the tariffs, which imposed a relatively modest 17 per cent levy – the second-lowest among Asean countries after Singapore. If enacted after the 90-day pause, the lower tariff could make Philippine goods more competitive in the US, positioning the net-importing nation to attract diverted trade and investment despite its limited reliance on export-led growth. 'We'll have to wait and see if this does materialise into better export volumes to the US,' said Nicholas Antonio T Mapa, chief economist at Metropolitan Bank. ANZ Research expects a trade agreement between Manila and Washington could be struck by the end of June, with a possible lower tariff rate of 10 to 15 per cent. Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed weaker trade in April, with total value down 2 per cent year on year. Exports rose 7 per cent but marked their slowest growth this year and fell 9.2 per cent from March, while imports dropped 7.2 per cent year on year and 8 per cent monthly – the first decline since December. Electronics remained the top export, accounting for more than half of outbound sales. The trade deficit from January to April narrowed slightly to US$15.9 billion. April's import slump reversed the sharp 17.8 per cent surge seen in March – the strongest since August 2022. The steepest drop came from mineral fuels and lubricants, down 35.1 per cent, while imports of raw materials and intermediate goods – a key gauge of production outlook – swung from a 22.4 per cent rise to an 11 per cent decline. 'It was partly tied to softer prices (on weakening greenback) but perhaps also evidence of moderating demand,' added Mapa. The Philippines' economy relies heavily on domestic consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of the country's gross domestic product. –– JAMILLE TRAN
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Earnings Growth ...
Earnings Growth: 8% increase in earnings for the first quarter. Operating Ratio: Improved by 20 basis points to 63.4%. Revenue: Increased by 4% year-over-year. Revenue Ton Miles (RTM): Growth of 1% in the quarter. Free Cash Flow: Over $600 million generated, about $100 million more than last year. EPS: Reported at $1.85, up 8% versus last year. Labor Productivity: Improved by 2%, with an 8% gain in training engine employee productivity. Fuel Expense: Decreased by 5% due to an 8% decrease in price per gallon. Net Income: Impacted by a net remeasurement gain related to the Iowa Northern acquisition. Full Year EPS Growth Guidance: Maintained at 10% to 15% for 2025. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 9 Warning Sign with GL. Release Date: May 01, 2025 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Canadian National Railway Co (NYSE:CNI) reported an 8% earnings growth and a 20 basis point improvement in the operating ratio for the first quarter. The company successfully concluded an arbitration process with Canadian conductors and locomotive engineers, resulting in a 3-year deal with annual wage increases of 3%. CNI has reached ratified agreements with nine unions in the US, representing roughly half of its US workforce. The company is well-positioned to enable global trade with available capacity at all three coasts of North America, providing customers with gateway options. CNI reported strong operational performance in March, with car velocity improving to nearly 200 miles per day and a record amount of Canadian grain moved. There is increased uncertainty around tariffs and trade, with a heightened risk of recession in both Canada and the US. The company experienced a more normalized Q1 weather pattern, which resulted in tougher comparisons versus last year, especially in February. CNI faced significant impacts across its network due to extreme cold and record snowfall, particularly in February, which limited network fluidity. The company observed a decrease in iron ore shipments due to softer export demand and production issues at mines. CNI's intermodal revenue slipped by 3%, largely reflecting more Canadian cargo as the company works to rebuild US-destined business following 2024 labor disruptions. Q: Can you provide clarity on the US intermodal business through Western ports and the impact of tariffs and blank sailings? A: Remi Lalonde, Chief Commercial Officer, explained that US volumes have been slower to recover but picked up nicely in April. The Gemini Alliance at Prince Rupert has exceeded expectations, with Canadian volumes up 16%. Despite an increase in blank sailings, the impact on ports served by CN is less severe than others, and growth is expected in the second half. CN is exploring new supply chain solutions, including a new intermodal service from Mexico to Gulfport and partnerships with Ferromex. Q: How are you managing headcount and network flexibility given recent weather challenges and work rules? A: Patrick Whitehead, Senior Vice President, Network Operations, stated that the network recovered quickly from weather disruptions, and they feel confident about their current manpower. They have 470 training engine service furloughs and 50 in mechanical, allowing flexibility to adjust to volume changes. Tracy Robinson, CEO, praised the team for doing more with fewer resources and maintaining the ability to flex up or down as needed. Q: What is the outlook for operating ratio improvement as operations improve in March and April? A: Tracy Robinson, CEO, mentioned that while they don't guide on operating ratio quarter-by-quarter, they expect improvement as the year progresses. The team is focused on efficiency, and strong pricing and network velocity are expected to drive margin improvement by year-end. Q: How is the Gemini Alliance impacting CN's operations, and are there shifts in business from Vancouver to Prince Rupert? A: Remi Lalonde, Chief Commercial Officer, highlighted that the Gemini Alliance brings a higher service promise, aligning well with CN's service reliability at Prince Rupert. The alliance has exceeded expectations, pulling volume into Rupert and benefiting both US and Canadian volumes. Q: How are trade flows and potential new alliances being discussed with rail partners, and is there potential for industry consolidation? A: Tracy Robinson, CEO, emphasized the benefits of partnerships to provide single-line service benefits without significant capital or regulatory risks. While consolidation is always a topic, the focus remains on leveraging network benefits and exploring partnerships with Class 1s and others. Q: What is the impact of tariffs and macroeconomic conditions on CN's guidance, and are you leaning towards the high or low end of the range? A: Tracy Robinson, CEO, stated that while uncertainty has increased, CN is on plan with a good start to the year. They expect to hit the guidance range as long as volume growth remains positive, with line-of-sight initiatives and easier comparisons in the second half supporting the outlook. Q: Are there opportunities for Canada-Mexico trade amid current volatility, and how does CN's service compare to competitors? A: Remi Lalonde, Chief Commercial Officer, confirmed active engagement with customers on Canada-Mexico opportunities, leveraging interline partnerships. Derek Taylor, Senior Vice President, Transportation, noted seamless interchange in Chicago and excitement about new Gulfport service. Q: How is CN managing labor and resources amid macro uncertainty and expected volume growth in the second half? A: Derek Taylor, Senior Vice President, Transportation, explained that CN has 470 furloughed employees, allowing flexibility to adjust resources as needed. The team is prepared to chase upside volume and make decisive actions if conditions change. Q: What are the expectations for revenue per RTM given currency and mix headwinds? A: Tracy Robinson, CEO, expects revenue per RTM to remain positive for the year, supported by international intermodal growth and strong pricing across bulk and merchandise traffic. Q: Are there any significant projects in the pipeline that have been delayed due to tariffs or macro conditions? A: Remi Lalonde, Chief Commercial Officer, mentioned Dow's pause on the Path to Zero project and ongoing discussions in the auto industry. However, CN continues to see strength in other areas, such as frac sand facilities and NGL exports. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio
