Stephen Cadogan: Farmers cheer as von der Leyen's EU budget faces collapse
Her own country, Germany, the EU's largest member state and biggest funding contributor, was one of the first to shoot down her commission's €2 trillion long-term budget proposal, which seems focused on tackling overseas competition and Russian aggression, but leaves the long-established Common Agriculture Policy in the lurch.
The ruling German Christian Democrats, of which von der Leyen is a member, said the commission's budget proposal is a "no-go".
And the EPP, of which von der Leyen is also a member, and the largest political group in the European Parliament, has also said it "cannot give the long-term budget a green light" after "key red lines set by the European Parliament have been ignored".
The EPP gave its powerful backing instead to farmers, saying: "We will reject any budget that fails to ring-fence sufficient funding for both the Common Agricultural Policy and Cohesion Policy, or where our farmers must compete with our regions for EU funding. These are not bargaining chips. These are pillars of the European project. They must be protected, not traded away."
All EU national capitals, as well as the European Parliament, must agree on the plan before it is approved; therefore, last week's proposal must go down as a failed dry run, and a very bad start to the two-year budget process for von der Leyen.
She has alienated the Greens, who helped get her the commission presidency in 2019 by an 8% vote margin in the parliament, She has also alienated many of the pro-Europeans who re-elected her last November with a 17% majority.
She survived a no-confidence vote in the parliament earlier in July, which exposed the increasing political opposition to her.
Adjusted for inflation, von der Leyen's budget proposal represents a cut of at least 20% in real terms to the EU's agricultural spending, thus giving two fingers to the farmers who protested in such huge numbers in 2023 and 2024.
More charitable and rational Brussels watchers describe her plan as a bold bid to re-think the EU project, for a more ambitious Europe capable of shaping global change. But they agree she may have gone too far.
Fraught negotiations within the commission delayed the proposals, and made a communications disaster of the announcement of a central EU seven-year budget of up to €2 trillion, compared to €1.2 trillion between 2021 and 2027, but steering funding away from traditional areas such as agriculture and regional development, towards new priorities such as defence and innovation.
Included are €100 billion exclusively for Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction, €131 billion to boost the defence and space sectors, and increased EU funds into transport infrastructure for military mobility.
The parliament's second largest political group, Socialists and Democrats, shot down the plan as "not serving the interests of Europeans". Iratxe García Pérez, President of the S&D Group, said:
Any idea to make access to EU funding conditional on austerity measures is a no-go for us.
Next biggest in the parliament, and the main opposition, the conservative Patriots, are likely to take the opportunity to seek a new no-confidence vote in von der Leyen, which is also supported by The Left, with only 46 seats, for whom Irish MEP Luke Flanagan was the designated speaker reacting to the budget plan.
Next biggest in the parliament are the ECR and Renew, both with about 80 seats. Renew said no to the budget plan's "disguised re-nationalisation of the EU budget" and "the end of the EU shared project". The ECR expressed reservations.
The Greens/EFA, with 53 MEPs, went against the flow by saying the budget plan is not large enough for Europe's needs.
Her plan was not universally rejected; it favours some eastern EU states, and Czechia cautiously welcomed it. Poland's government also welcomed it, predicting they will continue to be the biggest recipient of EU funds. But their Hungarian neighbours are sure to reject it.
The plan will have to change beyond recognition for acceptance by the parliament and member states, so farming details such as a guaranteed payments focus on active farmers, an upper limit of €100,000, and phasing out CAP payments to old age pensioners, might disappear along the way.
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