US intel report reveals Chinese support for Pakistan's nuclear ambitions
This revelation is significant considering Pakistan faced a humiliating military defeat in the recent conflict with India. Facing a punitive military response from India, Pakistan requested the US to intervene and called for a ceasefire.
Since India called Pakistan's nuclear bluff in this conflict, analysts are worried that Islamabad will desperately push to develop short-range tactical nuclear weapons to deter India's conventional response. It is a perilous development, which may lower Pakistan's conventional threshold with India, and it may lead to the escalation to tactical nuclear options in the next military conflict.
India's nuclear policy doctrine is well explained, stating that the use of any nuclear weapon by Pakistan will lead to massive retaliation. What is clear from DIA's assessment is that the humiliated Pakistan military would jeopardize the lives of millions of people by opting for the nuclear option against India.
However, it would not act against the anti-India terrorist outfits freely operating on Pakistani soil, such as Lashkar-i-Tayyaba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), among others, to avoid future conflict.
The DIA report mentions the
Pahalgam
terrorist attack, which killed 26 unarmed tourists, and subsequently led to India's military 'Operation Sindoor' on May 7, targeting 'terrorist infrastructure' in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK).
Washington understands that the Pakistan military establishment continues to use its proxy outfits to conduct cross-border terrorist attacks in India and jeopardize the peace and stability in the region.
It is ironic that on the one hand, Pakistan's intelligence agencies are openly supporting terror activities in neighboring countries like India, Afghanistan, and Iran, while on the other hand, it is failing to handle local armed insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The DIA report claims that Pakistan's military focuses on 'cross-border skirmishes' with regional neighbors (notably India), counterterrorism operations, and addressing rising attacks by groups like Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch nationalist militants. Despite these efforts, over 2,500 people were killed in militant attacks in Pakistan in 2024.
Furthermore, the Pakistan army is conducting regular drone strikes on its citizens in the tribal areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These strikes have resulted in several civilian casualties, mostly women and children. The violent marginalization and killings of ethnic minorities like Pashtuns and Baloch have only led to more internal instability in Pakistan. Under Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir's 'hard state' policy, incidents of extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and illegal imprisonment of local activists, journalists, and non-Punjabi political representatives have increased substantially. There is not a single day when these oppressed ethnic minorities do not see violence and state forced suppression of their basic human right of peaceful existence.
The DIA brings out this hypocrisy or 'double game' of the Pakistani military establishment in their recent assessment. More importantly, it also highlights China's substantialeconomic and military support to Pakistan, including foreign materials and technology for Pakistan's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. While the report claims that regular terrorist attacks on Chinese citizens, especially those working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), have strained relations between the two countries, Beijing's continued strategic and operational support for Islamabad remains intact. For example, the recent Indo-Pak conflict highlighted Pakistan's use of Chinese-origin combat jets (JF-17, J-10C) and PL-15 missiles. Although those weapons proved mostly inconsequential and caused significant international embarrassment for China, there are no indications that Sino-Pakistani military relations will be affected long-term.
Reports indicate that Pakistan is begging for emergency procurement of Chinese weapons, including the fifth-generation J-35A stealth fighter jet and air defense systems, to avoid future military defeat against India. This, even though Pakistan's economy is in doldrums, and it nearly lost USD 11 billion in the recent conflict with India. The DIA report says that the economic fragility in Pakistan persists, with a USD 350 billion economy under strain, though a USD 7 billion IMF loan program in 2024 offers some relief. As Pakistan desperately tries to import the so-called 'state-of-the-art' defense equipment from multiple countries, how it will afford them remains a big question. It has already missed the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections for the year 2025 by one per cent; there are no positive indications for the country's future economic growth.
Additionally, Pakistan is witnessing several internal protests against the price rise of essential food and energy items, water scarcity, inter-provincial tensions, and suppression of political rights. The country is now under complete military control after Munir's unprecedented promotion to the Field Marshal rank following embarrassing setbacks during Operation Bunyanum Marsoos.
A significant portion of this year's budget will likely be allocated to defense purchases, thereby jeopardizing civilian needs and the financial rights of the provinces. Moreover, as the DIA report claims, Pakistan is actively developing battlefield nuclear weapons, which will require the urgent procurement of fissile materials, costing immensely to the country's dwindling economy. U.S. intelligence documents, including DIA assessments, have long expressed unease about Pakistan's nuclear program.
A 2013 report highlighted uncertainties in tracking nuclear materials, with the DIA establishing a Pakistan WMD Analysis Cell to monitor movements. The focus was on gaps in understanding Pakistan's nuclear security and procurement of WMD-applicable goods, often from China. This aligns with the 2025 report's emphasis on Pakistan's nuclear modernization and reliance on foreign suppliers. It will further increase Islamabad's dependence on Beijing, making it more vulnerable to Chinese strategic demands in the Indo-Pacific region, thereby hurting American interests.
The report shows continuity in DIA's concerns about Pakistan's dangerous nuclear ambitions, its unabated 'good' versus 'bad' terrorist strategy, and strategic alignment with China, all while viewing India as an 'existential' threat. All these issues will formulate Pakistan's military policy, which may lead to more instability and armed conflicts in the Indian subcontinent.
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