Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy: Debt is the greatest threat to America
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26 minutes ago
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Who will win the White House in 2028? JD Vance favorite, but Dems have better odds
Donald Trump is a little more than halfway through his first year in office, and already people are jockeying for position for the 2028 presidential election. It was about a year ago when Trump overtook Democratic nominee Kamala Harris as the favorite to win the election and he cruised from that point on. The tides have turned once again, and now democrats are favored to win back the White House in 2028. But last July, Harris was the overwhelming favorite to defeat Trump, so things can change in a hurry. According to a Democrat is -110 to win the 2028 Presidential Election. Republicans come in at +100. So while the lead is ever so slight, it is noteworthy that for the first time in about a year, Democrats are favored to win the next presidential election. If you think an independent can win, that's where the real money is. Independents are +2000 to win. 2028 presidential betting odds When it comes to individuals, nobody has really been able to pull away from the pack. Vice President JD Vance remains the top choice on the betting market. He comes in at +250. Trump himself comes in at No. 2 in betting odds at +900. Right now he can't run again, but Vegas believes that could change. On the Democratic side, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are the top two favorites, both coming in at +900. Bettinglectionodds also has their odds. That site has Vance as the favorite to be the next president with a 23.9 percent chance of winning. He's followed by Newsom (8.2 percent), Ocasio-Cortez (6.6 percent), Pete Buttigieg (4.9 percent), Josh Shapiro (3.7 percent), Ron DeSantis (2.5 percent) and Ivanka Trump (2.4 percent) as the favorites. This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: 2028 presidential betting odds: Vance, Trump, Newsom, AOC favorites
29 minutes ago
Senate delays August recess for now as Trump presses for more confirmations
WASHINGTON -- A stalemate over the pace of confirmations has delayed the Senate's yearly August recess, for now, as President Donald Trump declares that his nominees 'should NOT BE FORCED TO WAIT' and as Democrats slow the process by forcing procedural votes on almost all of Trump's picks. Caught in the middle, Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he will keep the Senate in session over the weekend, at least, to hold confirmation votes while also negotiating with Democrats to speed up consideration of dozens of nominees. The two sides haven't come to agreement yet, and it's still unclear if Trump, who has been publicly calling on Republicans to cancel their break, would be onboard with any bipartisan deal. Thune said Friday he was leaving some of the negotiations to Trump and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. 'That's how this is going to get resolved,' Thune said. 'We'll see where that leads.' Senators in both parties are eager to leave Washington for their annual break, when many of them tour their states to talk to constituents. Republicans in particular are eager to return home and sell the massive tax and spending cuts package they passed in July as Democrats vow to use it against them in the 2026 midterm elections. The House, which has no role in the confirmation process, fled Washington a week ago. But Trump has other plans. 'The Senate must stay in Session, taking no recess, until the entire Executive Calendar is CLEAR!!!' Trump posted on social media Thursday night, after a meeting with Thune at the White House. 'We have to save our Country from the Lunatic Left. Republicans, for the health and safety of the USA, DO YOUR JOB, and confirm All Nominees.' Thune said this week that Republicans are considering changing the Senate's rules when they get back in September to make it easier to quickly approve a president's nominations — and to try and avoid a similar stalemate in the future. Democrats have blocked more nominees than usual this year, denying any quick unanimous consent votes and forcing roll calls on each one, a lengthy process that takes several days per nominee and allows for debate time. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said Friday that Senate GOP leadership was 'going back, drafting a specific rule for us to react to" as they try to plot a path forward. It's the first time in recent history that the minority party hasn't allowed at least some quick confirmations. Thune has already kept the Senate in session for more days, and with longer hours, this year to try and confirm as many of Trump's nominees as possible. Democrats have little desire to give in, even though they too are eager to skip town after several long months of work and bitter partisan fights over legislation. Schumer has said Democrats have blocked quick votes because, 'historically bad nominees deserved historic levels of scrutiny.' There are more than 150 nominations on the Senate calendar, and confirming them all would take more than a month even if the Senate does stay in session, if Democrats draw out the process. The standoff is just the latest chapter in an ever-escalating Senate fight over nominations in the last two decades. Both parties have increasingly used stalling tactics to delay confirmations that were once quick, bipartisan and routine. In 2013, Democrats changed Senate rules for lower court judicial nominees to remove the 60-vote threshold for confirmations as Republicans blocked President Barack Obama's judicial nominations. In 2017, Republicans did the same for Supreme Court nominees as Democrats tried to block Trump's nomination of Justice Neil Gorsuch. Still, Thune says, the Democrats' current delays are a 'historic level of obstruction.' In his first year as leader, Thune has worked with Trump to quickly confirm his Cabinet and navigated complicated internal party dynamics to pass the tax and spending cuts package, which Trump sees as his signature policy achievement. Yet the president is applying increasing pressure on Thune and his conference, trying to control the Senate's schedule and calling out three Republican senators in social media posts this week — including Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, the senior-most Senate Republican who worked closely with Trump to confirm his picks for Supreme Court in his first term. Trump criticized Grassley for keeping with Senate tradition and working with home state Democrats on some judicial confirmations, saying that he got Grassley re-elected 'when he was down, by a lot.' Opening a committee hearing on Thursday, Grassley defended the practice and added that he was 'offended by what the president said, and I'm disappointed that it would result in personal insults.' Trump also criticized Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley for working with Democrats on a stock trading ban for lawmakers. And in a post late Thursday, he counseled Republicans to 'vote the exact opposite' of Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Susan Collins, a moderate who has worked with Democrats on spending bills this year and frequently opposes Trump.
an hour ago
Switzerland, the land of luxury brands, could see prices skyrocket from Trump's 39% tariffs
Prices for the eponymous Swiss watches, Swiss chocolate and Swiss cheese could skyrocket in a week as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war. Switzerland, home to some the world's most recognizable luxury brands, now faces an upcoming 39% tariff from the U.S. Industry groups on Friday warned that both Swiss companies and American consumers could pay the price. Trump signed an executive order Thursday placing tariffs on many U.S. trade partners — the next step in his trade agenda that will test the global economy and alliances — that's set to take effect next Thursday. The order applies to 66 countries, the European Union, Taiwan and the Falkland Islands. In Switzerland, officials failed to reach a final agreement with the U.S. after Trump initially threatened a 31% tariff in April. Swiss companies will now have one of the steepest export duties — only Laos, Myanmar and Syria had higher figures, at 40-41%. The 27-member EU bloc and Britain, meanwhile, negotiated 15% and 10% tariffs, respectively. The Swiss government spent Friday — the country's National Day — reeling from the news. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter said that the 39% figure was a surprise, because negotiators had hashed out a deal last month with the Trump administration that apparently wasn't approved by the American leader himself. 'We will now analyze the situation and try to find a solution," Keller-Sutter told reporters. 'I can't say what the outcome will be, but it will certainly damage the economy.' The U.S. goods trade deficit with Switzerland was $38.5 billion last year, a 56.9% increase over 2023, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. Keller-Sutter said that she believes Trump ultimately chose the 39% tariff, because the figure rounded up from the $38.5 billion goods trade deficit. 'It was clear that the president was focused on the trade deficit and only this issue,' she said. For Swiss watch companies, whose products already come with price tags in the tens of thousands — if not the hundreds of thousands — of euros, a timepiece for an arm could cost a leg, too, come next week. The 39% figure was especially galling to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, because Switzerland in 2024 got rid of import tariffs on all industrial goods. 'As Switzerland has eliminated all custom duties on imported industrial products, there is no problem with reciprocity between Switzerland and the U.S.,' the federation said in a statement. 'The tariffs constitute a severe problem for our bilateral relations.' Swiss watch exports were already facing a prolonged slowdown, with significant declines in the United States, Japan and Hong Kong, according to the federation's June figures, the most recent available. Swatch and Rolex declined to comment Friday. Representatives for Patek Philippe, IWC and Breitling didn't respond to requests for comment. Multinational chocolatiers Nestlé and Lindt & Sprüngli said they have production lines in the U.S. for American customers. But small- and medium-sized Swiss companies are predicted to suffer under the tariffs. Roger Wehrli, chief executive of the Association of Swiss Chocolate Manufacturers. also known as Chocosuisse, said Switzerland exports 7% of its chocolate production to the U.S. It's not just the 39% tariff that's the issue. Once the manufacturers factor in the exchange rate between U.S. dollars and Swiss francs ($1 to 1.23 francs on Friday), Wehrli said, it's close to a 50% increase in costs for the Swiss companies. And that's a big number to pass on to American consumers, if the already-slim margins aren't further reduced. 'I expect that our industry will lose customers in the United States, and that sales volumes will decrease heavily,' he told The Associated Press. Wehrli said that he wants Swiss chocolatiers to sell to other markets around the globe to make up the difference. Still, he hopes American customers remember that Swiss quality beats cheaper quantity. 'I think even if prices for Swiss chocolate increase due to the very high tariffs, I think it's worth (it) to buy Swiss chocolate," he said. 'It's worth (it) to really eat it consciously and to really enjoy it instead of eating a lot.' Swiss pharmaceuticals powerhouse Roche says that it's working to ensure its patients and customers worldwide have access to their medications and diagnostics amid the Trump tariff war. 'While we believe pharmaceuticals and diagnostics should be exempt from tariffs to protect patient access, supply chains and ultimately future innovation, we are prepared for potential tariffs being implemented and confident in managing any impacts,' the statement said. The company in April Meanwhile, Novartis, another major Swiss pharmaceutical firm, said in a statement that it was reviewing Trump's executive order.
