Friday fortune: Nifty, Sensex end 3-day slide but caution lingers

Mint

20-06-2025

India's benchmark equity indices snapped a three-day losing streak to end more than 1% higher on Friday, lifted by short-covering ahead of next week's monthly derivatives expiry and US president Donald Trump deferring his decision to join Israel's attack on Iran.
Adding to the new market momentum were two significant semi-annual index rebalances: the Sensex and London's FTSE, according to Abhilash Pagaria, head of Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research.
Siemens Energy is set to be dropped from the MSCI Global Standard Index, which could spark an estimated $210 million outflow. Since it's also part of the Nifty 50, an additional $50 million in outflows is anticipated from that front. In contrast, Tata Group fashion retailer Trent Ltd and state-run Bharat Electronics Ltd are set to replace Nestle and IndusInd Bank on the Sensex, potentially drawing in fresh investments. Meanwhile, the FTSE reshuffle is expected to bring in around $150 million into India, primarily due to the inclusion of Vishal Mega Mart.
'The market is like a person whose average temperature is fine as one leg is in cold water and the other leg is in boiling water,' said Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra AMC.
He said that stable domestic macros are currently outweighing geopolitical uncertainty. And, since the valuation of Indian equities is unlikely to be rated further up from here, Shah believes investor returns will come from earnings growth moving ahead.
On Friday, both Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex closed 1.3% higher at 25,112.40 and82,408.17points, respectively. Gains in Nifty 50 were led by a surge in heavyweight stocks such as HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, and ICICI Bank.
The Nifty 50 finally broke past the 25,000-mark on Friday, a level that had acted as a key resistance. With the index closing firmly above it, Kkunal Parar, vice-president at Choice Equity Broking, sees room for further gains, possibly up to 25,300 points. 'If momentum holds and the index surpasses that level', he believes Indian equities could be on track for a fresh high.
Meanwhile, Nifty Smallcap 250 ended the day 0.6% higher and Nifty Midcap 100 surged 1.5%.
A 2 June report from Morgan Stanley highlights the resilience of Indian markets, noting that 'market wants to go up, not down.' Since September 2024, the market has absorbed a wave of negative developments—from stretched valuations in small- and mid-caps and a broad-based correction, to concerns over slowing macro growth and earnings, US tariff-related volatility, and even a major terrorist attack followed by India's response. Yet, large-cap indices remain just about 5% below all-time highs, 'and almost negligible changes in implied volumes,' the report said.
Israel and Iran continue to exchange fire after Israel launched strikes on Iran's military and nuclear sites on 13 June, drawing a retaliation from the Islamic nation and ratcheting up geopolitical tensions. Both Israel and the US want Iran to abandon its nuclear programme, and Trump has deferred his decision on attacking Iran by two weeks, opening a potential negotiating window.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers on Friday, picking up ₹ 7,940.70 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) booked profits with net sales of ₹ 3,049.88 crore, according to BSE provisional data.
Over the past week, both FIIs and DIIs emerged as net buyers, with inflows of ₹ 1,209.57 crore and ₹ 18,726.90 crore, respectively, according to NSDL data.
Overall cash levels of the mutual fund industry remain elevated, particularly concentrated within three asset management companies (AMCs), as per an Elara Capital report dated 17 June. 'It is important to understand that this is not a short-term tactical move but a strategic positioning reflecting caution on current market valuations—especially in the Mid and Smallcap segments.'
The report highlighted that almost 25% of the total cash in the system is held by only 4 schemes and 50% by 18 schemes. And most of these schemes have maintained elevated cash level for more than a year. Rather than channeling funds into the secondary market, fund managers are increasingly turning to the primary market, where issuance activity has seen a notable resurgence since May 2025, the report pointed out.
Still, some amount of caution continues to linger among investors, considering the ongoing conflict in West Asia. market experts said. A flare-up in tensions could drive up crude oil prices and heighten volatility, quickly souring the overall investor sentiment.