Latest news with #AbhilashPagaria
India Today
27-06-2025
- Business
- India Today
Will Sensex and Nifty hit record highs in July? Here's all you need to know
Benchmark indices are moving closer to record highs, and the momentum looks set to continue into July, powered by resilient domestic flows, macroeconomic tailwinds, and solid performances from frontline stocks like Reliance Industries and top Nifty 50 has risen 2.9% in the June derivatives series, while small- and mid-cap indices posted gains of 5.1% and 3.1%, respectively, reported Reuters. And this rally has taken both the Nifty and Sensex within 3% of their all-time highs touched in late September last RECORD HIGHS IN SIGHTWhat's interesting to note here is that foreign istitutional investors are not fuelling this rally. Domestic institutional investors and steady SIP inflows have provided a strong liquidity base, even as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have remained cautious. Analysts now say the market's resilience is hard to ignore. 'Markets have grown increasingly resilient to external noise, from geopolitical tensions to US presidential tweets. There is little doubt that the bullish momentum is here to stay,' Abhilash Pagaria, Head of Alternative and Quantitative Research at Nuvama, told July derivatives series, which runs from June 27 to July 31, has begun with lighter FII short positions compared to the previous month, signalling a slight shift in sentiment. Retail and high net-worth investors are taking a more selective approach, scaling back on index-wide bets while leaning into specific to Sriram Velayudhan, Senior Vice President at IIFL Capital Services, the sustained strength in blue-chip names such as Reliance and major banks could create a path for the Nifty to reclaim all-time high the broader sentiment remains positive, some caution remains around key upcoming events. These include the July 9 deadline for US reciprocal tariffs, the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision, and the upcoming corporate earnings season—all of which could introduce short-term CONFIDENTStill, early signals suggest traders remain confident. Open interest at the start of the July series stood at 80% on the Nifty and 89% market-wide, indicating heightened participation and conviction in continued news agency also reported that long positions are building up in sectors like telecom, cement, IT, banking, metals, and chemicals. Meanwhile, autos are seeing some short-covering, and FMCG remains the only segment showing a marginal rise in short combination of macro stability, strong domestic liquidity, and stock-specific conviction appears to be setting the stage for a bullish July. Whether the Nifty breaks its previous record remains to be seen, but the wind, for now, is definitely at the market's back.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)- EndsMust Watch
Mint
20-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Friday fortune: Nifty, Sensex end 3-day slide but caution lingers
India's benchmark equity indices snapped a three-day losing streak to end more than 1% higher on Friday, lifted by short-covering ahead of next week's monthly derivatives expiry and US president Donald Trump deferring his decision to join Israel's attack on Iran. Adding to the new market momentum were two significant semi-annual index rebalances: the Sensex and London's FTSE, according to Abhilash Pagaria, head of Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Siemens Energy is set to be dropped from the MSCI Global Standard Index, which could spark an estimated $210 million outflow. Since it's also part of the Nifty 50, an additional $50 million in outflows is anticipated from that front. In contrast, Tata Group fashion retailer Trent Ltd and state-run Bharat Electronics Ltd are set to replace Nestle and IndusInd Bank on the Sensex, potentially drawing in fresh investments. Meanwhile, the FTSE reshuffle is expected to bring in around $150 million into India, primarily due to the inclusion of Vishal Mega Mart. 'The market is like a person whose average temperature is fine as one leg is in cold water and the other leg is in boiling water,' said Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra AMC. He said that stable domestic macros are currently outweighing geopolitical uncertainty. And, since the valuation of Indian equities is unlikely to be rated further up from here, Shah believes investor returns will come from earnings growth moving ahead. On Friday, both Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex closed 1.3% higher at 25,112.40 and82,408.17points, respectively. Gains in Nifty 50 were led by a surge in heavyweight stocks such as HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, and ICICI Bank. The Nifty 50 finally broke past the 25,000-mark on Friday, a level that had acted as a key resistance. With the index closing firmly above it, Kkunal Parar, vice-president at Choice Equity Broking, sees room for further gains, possibly up to 25,300 points. 'If momentum holds and the index surpasses that level', he believes Indian equities could be on track for a fresh high. Meanwhile, Nifty Smallcap 250 ended the day 0.6% higher and Nifty Midcap 100 surged 1.5%. A 2 June report from Morgan Stanley highlights the resilience of Indian markets, noting that 'market wants to go up, not down.' Since September 2024, the market has absorbed a wave of negative developments—from stretched valuations in small- and mid-caps and a broad-based correction, to concerns over slowing macro growth and earnings, US tariff-related volatility, and even a major terrorist attack followed by India's response. Yet, large-cap indices remain just about 5% below all-time highs, 'and almost negligible changes in implied volumes,' the report said. Israel and Iran continue to exchange fire after Israel launched strikes on Iran's military and nuclear sites on 13 June, drawing a retaliation from the Islamic nation and ratcheting up geopolitical tensions. Both Israel and the US want Iran to abandon its nuclear programme, and Trump has deferred his decision on attacking Iran by two weeks, opening a potential negotiating window. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers on Friday, picking up ₹ 7,940.70 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) booked profits with net sales of ₹ 3,049.88 crore, according to BSE provisional data. Over the past week, both FIIs and DIIs emerged as net buyers, with inflows of ₹ 1,209.57 crore and ₹ 18,726.90 crore, respectively, according to NSDL data. Overall cash levels of the mutual fund industry remain elevated, particularly concentrated within three asset management companies (AMCs), as per an Elara Capital report dated 17 June. 'It is important to understand that this is not a short-term tactical move but a strategic positioning reflecting caution on current market valuations—especially in the Mid and Smallcap segments.' The report highlighted that almost 25% of the total cash in the system is held by only 4 schemes and 50% by 18 schemes. And most of these schemes have maintained elevated cash level for more than a year. Rather than channeling funds into the secondary market, fund managers are increasingly turning to the primary market, where issuance activity has seen a notable resurgence since May 2025, the report pointed out. Still, some amount of caution continues to linger among investors, considering the ongoing conflict in West Asia. market experts said. A flare-up in tensions could drive up crude oil prices and heighten volatility, quickly souring the overall investor sentiment.
News18
19-06-2025
- Business
- News18
Vishal Mega Mart To Join FTSE Global Mid Cap Index On June 20
Vishal Mega Mart is set to be included in the FTSE Global Mid Cap Index on June 20, following a significant promoter stake sale Vishal Mega Mart Vishal Mega Mart is set to be included in the FTSE Global Mid Cap Index on June 20, following a significant promoter stake sale earlier this week. According to estimates by Nuvama Alternative, the index inclusion could lead to passive inflows of around \$115 million. The company is also seen as a strong contender for inclusion in the MSCI Index during its upcoming August 2025 review. Nuvama projects that such a move could attract additional inflows of approximately \$225 million, with the official MSCI announcement expected on August 8. 'Following the 20% promoter stake sale, MSCI is expected to revise Vishal Mega Mart's free float upwards, increasing the likelihood of its inclusion in the August review," said Abhilash Pagaria, Head of Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Currently, Vishal Mega Mart is already part of the FTSE Russell Universe. Earlier this week, promoter entity Samayat Services LLP offloaded shares worth Rs 10,220.4 crore through a bulk deal on the NSE. The sale involved 90 crore shares at Rs 113.6 per share, representing a 19.6% stake. As of March 31, Samayat Services held a 74.6% stake in the company. Following the deal, Vishal Mega Mart shares fell 3.2% on Wednesday to close at Rs 122.7. Stake sales by promoters typically increase a stock's free float, thereby enhancing its eligibility for inclusion or weight increase in global indices like MSCI and FTSE. Once a stock is added to such indices, passive investment vehicles such as ETFs that track the benchmarks are obligated to buy the stock accordingly. First Published: June 19, 2025, 07:36 IST
Time of India
19-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Vishal Mega Mart set to join FTSE Global Mid Cap Index on June 20
Mumbai: Vishal Mega Mart is set to be included in the FTSE Global Mid Cap Index on June 20, following the stake sale by promoters earlier this week. The inclusion could lead to inflows of around $115 million, according to Nuvama Alternative estimates. Nuvama expects Vishal Mega to be a strong contender for inclusion in the MSCI Index in August, which could lead to inflows of around $225 million. The announcement is expected on August 8. Agencies "Following the 20% promoter stake sale , MSCI is expected to revise the free float upwards, increasing the likelihood of the stock's inclusion in the MSCI August 2025 review," said Abhilash Pagaria, head of Nuvama Alternative. Currently, Vishal Mega is a part of the FTSE Russell Universe. Samayat Services sold shares of Vishal Mega Mart worth ₹10,220.4 crore in a bulk deal on NSE on Tuesday. The promoter group entity sold 90 crore shares at ₹113.6 apiece, representing 19.6% of the company's total equity. As of March 31, Samayat Services LLP owned a 74.6% stake in the company. The stock fell 3.2% on Wednesday to close at ₹122.7. Promoter stake sales increase a stock's free float, making it eligible for inclusion or a higher weight in global indices like MSCI and FTSE. When a stock is brought into global indices, passive funds like ETFs, whose portfolios mimic these benchmarks, must purchase the shares in line with the revamp. Live Events In the last month, Vishal Mega Mart shares shed 2.4% while the Nifty Midcap 100 Index gained 1.8% in the same period.
Time of India
05-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Why are more promoters pledging their shares in Nifty 500 companies?
In the March quarter, shares of several companies, which saw a rise in promoter pledges, had fallen 30-50%. During January-March, promoter stake pledges increased for 27 Nifty 500 companies, including Aadhar Housing Finance and Max Financial Services. While pledging isn't inherently alarming, it raises concerns when a company's fundamentals are weak, potentially amplifying negative impacts if business performance is already questionable. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Mumbai: Promoters' stake pledges went up for 27 companies out of the Nifty 500 companies during January-March, compared with 25 companies in the previous quarter, according to data from Primedatabase. Aadhar Housing Finance Max Financial Services and Raymond Lifestyles were among the companies that saw promoters pledging their holdings during the or shareholders, put up their shares as collateral for loans . While promoters placing their shares as collateral is not uncommon, sudden increases in such pledging catch the attention of the investor community."Pledging of shares in itself is not necessarily a concern and may be a means of leveraging the stake when markets are performing well," said Abhilash Pagaria, head of Alternative and Quantitative Research, Nuvama. "However, if a company's fundamentals are not sound, then it can be a sign of caution.""If a company's business fundamentals are already under the scanner and there is pledging of shares, then it can amplify the negative impact and result in the shares declining," he fall in stock prices could also lead to an increase in share pledges by promoters as lenders seek fresh shares to make up for the drop in value of the collateral. In the March quarter, shares of several companies, which saw a rise in promoter pledges, had fallen 30-50%."When promoter pledges increase, it can indicate the genuine need for capital and tend to move up due to a decline in markets as witnessed in the March quarter," said Manish Bhandari, CEO, Vallum are wary of companies with consistently high pledging of stakes by promoters, as in the past, there have been some instances of these founders defaulting on the loan, forcing the lenders to sell the pledged shares in the open market to make up for the non-payment. "A higher amount of shares can be pledged if the share price falls, as part of margin call; however, this is not a concern unless the increase is substantial of around 30-40%," said Bhandari.
