Can the GOP megabill hold together?

Politico

9 hours ago

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With help from Eli Okun, Bethany Irvine and Ali Bianco
Good afternoon. It's Zack Stanton in your Sunday inbox. Get in touch.
DISPATCH FROM ASPEN: My Playbook colleagues Jack Blanchard and Dasha Burns are out in Aspen this weekend along with POLITICO's own Jonathan Martin for the annual Aspen Ideas Festival, where they're moderating panels on everything from diplomacy — with Australian Ambassador Kevin Rudd — to the future of warfare and Ukraine. Jack's conversation last night with social media influencers and content creators Dean Withers, Brad Polumbo and Jayme Franklin focused on how TikTok and Gen Z are changing the political landscape — and it was standing-room only for the full hour. Watch it back here
The vibe: Jack is blinking in wonder on his first trip to the Rockies. JMart is holding court, because of course he is. And Dasha is feeling the whiplash, flying in straight off a whirlwind week at the NATO summit. Do tune in to tomorrow's Playbook Podcast, which Jack and Dasha will be recording live from the beautiful Rocky Mountains.
DRIVING THE DAY
RECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: The Republican megabill that forms the crux of President Donald Trump's legislative agenda is inching closer to passage. Last night, 51 Senate Republicans voted to clear a procedural hurdle and allow consideration of the bill to move forward.
Right now, the chamber floor is mostly empty, save for the clerks, who are roughly 13 hours into a marathon session reading aloud the 940-page bill. They're likely to finish some time before 4 p.m. today. Then, the Senate will start voting on amendments to the package as Majority Leader John Thune eyes a Monday passage for the megabill.
Welcome to the vote-a-rama: 'Democrats are expected to try and put Republicans on the record on issues that could resonate in the midterms, including tax cuts for the wealthy, Medicaid cuts, and changes to food assistance for the poor, or SNAP,' as POLITICO's Katherine Tully-McManus and Nicholas Wu write. In doing so, 'Democrats could try to break the all-time record of 44 amendments set in 2008.'
'But Democrats aren't the only ones who could squeeze Republicans,' they continue. 'Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who has vocally opposed the Medicaid cuts, plans to offer amendments, including to raise income taxes on the wealthiest Americans to pre-2017 levels.'
At this 11th hour, the megabill is effectively duct-taped together. And the compromises and homestate concessions — the 2025 version of the 'Cornhusker Kickback' could perhaps be called the 'Blubber Bonus,' seeing as it benefits Alaskan whaling captains — leadership made to get to this point also risk the whole thing falling apart.
Some of the key things we're watching …
Will Republicans gut a key part of Obamacare? GOP leaders spent the bulk of yesterday trying to win over holdouts in the Senate. One of those conservatives, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), 'said they won a promise of an amendment vote related to the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act,' POLITICO's Jordain Carney reports. 'Their proposal would end the 90 percent federal cost-share for new enrollees under that arrangement, Johnson said — gutting a key feature of the law known as Obamacare.'
Will Trump go along with that? 'Thune declined to comment on the concessions, but Johnson suggested Thune and Trump will support the amendment,' Jordain writes. Republican moderates are not keen on the idea, and if it somehow makes it through the Senate, its inclusion could imperil its chances of passage in the House.
The cost of the tax cuts has ballooned: 'The cost of Senate Republicans' tax cuts has grown to $4.45 trillion, congressional forecasters said Saturday night,' POLITICO's Brian Faler reports — that's a $200 billion increase from their earlier draft of the plan. 'The growing price tag could be a problem for some Republicans, especially in the House where many lawmakers have been adamant that their tax cuts cost no more than $4 trillion, unless they find more spending cuts.'
The Senate bill drastically increases the deficits: You're going to hear a lot of spin over the next 24 hours that the Senate bill will reduce budget deficits by $500 billion. That's true, according to a Congressional Budget Office report released last night — 'but only if you first assume that all the expiring tax cuts are extended permanently and have no cost,' as WSJ's Richard Rubin and colleagues write. 'On an apples-to-apples basis with the House bill, the Senate bill would likely increase deficits by about $3.3 trillion, up from $2.4 billion for the House version.' That could be a bridge too far for the House Freedom Caucus.
So, where are the savings? In the red tape, as NYT's Margot Sanger-Katz and Emily Badger report: 'Instead of explicitly reducing benefits, Republicans would make them harder to get and to keep. The effect, analysts say, is the same, with millions fewer Americans receiving assistance. By including dozens of changes to dates, deadlines, document requirements and rules, Republicans have turned paperwork into one of the bill's crucial policy-making tools, yielding hundreds of billions of dollars in savings to help offset their signature tax cuts.'
The megabill now taxes solar and wind projects: 'Senate Republicans stepped up their attacks on U.S. solar and wind energy projects by quietly adding a provision to their megabill that would penalize future developments with a new tax,' POLITICO's Kelsey Tamborino and colleagues write. 'The new excise tax is another blow to the fastest-growing sources of power production in the United States, and would be a massive setback to the wind and solar energy industries since it would apply even to projects not receiving any credits.'
Among those angry about it: Elon Musk. 'The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!' he tweeted last night in regards to the renewable energy changes. 'Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.' He later added that the 'bill is political suicide for the Republican Party.'
But Trump wants this bill to pass. Yesterday, he met senators at his golf club in northern Virginia, and followed that up by lobbying senators over the phone late into the night, Playbook is reliably told.
Will he get it on his desk by this Friday? 'I mean I can't tell you that,' Trump said this morning on Fox News' 'Sunday Morning Futures.' 'I'd like to say yes, but the problem is if we're two days late or five days late, everybody says, 'oh, you had a tremendous failure.' Whatever it is, as long as we have it. It's very important.'
One key question: Presuming this gets through the Senate, will Trump's support for it be enough to get House Republicans to swallow a bill that many of them are trashing in private?
There are some real doubts. Yesterday, House Republicans held a 15-minute call during which a 'frustrated' Speaker Mike Johnson 'urged his members to keep their powder dry and refrain from weighing in publicly on the Senate's version of the bill, as so much of it is in flux — which means no posts on X,' CNN's Sarah Ferris and colleagues report. 'At least one Republican, Rep. David Valadao of California, posted publicly that he opposed the Senate bill because of changes to Medicaid. And another Republican who is closely watching the Medicaid provisions, Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, told CNN: 'I don't like it. We had hit a sweet spot with our bill.''
The view from the Senate Democrats: 'This bill is a real piece of shit it and it would be excellent if that's all anyone talked about for the next few days,' posted Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii). 'Super interested in your think piece about the NYC mayor's race but let's get to that after we try to stop the biggest wealth transfer in American history.'
Speaking of … The smartest 30,000-foot analysis we've read on Zohran Mamdani's victory over Andrew Cuomo in NYC's Democratic mayoral primary comes from this insightful conversation between NYT's Ezra Klein and MSNBC's Chris Hayes on how the attention economy has fundamentally changed our politics in a way many longtime pols and Washington operators don't fully appreciate. (And which, frankly, can make it hard for nuanced policy discussion to take place.)
Someone who does get it: Alex Bruesewitz. He's the media adviser behind Trump's campaign-season podcast blitz and MAGA world's constant online trolling as a way to steamroll through the news cycle. In this morning's episode of 'The Conversation,' Bruesewitz talks about that strategy with Playbook's Dasha Burns. More on YouTube … Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify
SUNDAY BEST …
— President Donald Trump spoke with Maria Bartiromo on Fox News' 'Sunday Morning Futures.'
On finding the leakers of the initial intel assessment of the Iran strikes: 'They could find out if they wanted. They could find out easily. You go up and tell the reporter, national security — who gave it? You have to do that. I suspect we'll be doing things like that.'
On a replacement for Jerome Powell: '[R]eporters ask me, do you have other names? Yeah, I do. Anybody but Powell. He's a bad person.'
On who should be subpoenaed to testify on former President Joe Biden: 'I would say [former deputy Attorney General] Lisa [Monaco] … who was a big supporter of Andrew Weissmann.'
On extending the July 9 tariff deadline: 'I don't think I'll need to.'
On TikTok: 'We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way. I think I'll need probably China approval. I think President Xi [Jinping] will probably do it …. I'll tell you [the buyer] in about two weeks.'
— Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for NYC mayor whom Jeffries said he has not endorsed, on ABC's 'This Week': 'We don't really know each other well. Our districts don't overlap. I have never had a substantive conversation with him. And so that's the next step in terms of this process, to be able to sit down, which we agreed to do, in central Brooklyn … 'Globalizing the Intifada,' by way of example, is not an acceptable phrasing. He's going to have to clarify his position on that as he moves forward.'
— Zohran Mamdani's response on 'globalize the intifada' on NBC's 'Meet the Press': 'That's not language that I used. The language that I used and the language that I will continue to use to lead the city is that which speaks clearly to my intent, which is an intent grounded in a belief in universal human rights. … What I think I need to show is the ability to not only talk about something but to tackle it and to make clear that there's no room for antisemitism in this city.'
— Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, on the damages from U.S. strikes and Iran's capacity to rebuild, on CBS' 'Face the Nation': 'The capacities they have are there. They can have, you know, in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or less than that. … So if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again.'
TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week's must-read opinion pieces.
9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
1. LOOMING CUTS: The mood for federal workers at the State Department is grim as we round the corner to Secretary of State Marco Rubio's July 1 timetable for thousands of layoffs — but they've still been clocking overtime helping Americans fleeing conflict in the Middle East, WaPo's Adam Taylor and colleagues report. More from Rubio on 'The Conversation with Dasha Burns'
Next on the chopping block: the nation's only federal after-school program, which the White House budget proposal would ax as it consolidates funding for the Department of Education, WaPo's Terell Wright writes.
Real-world impact: Community centers serving LGBTQ+ seniors at risk of poverty are running on empty as Trump's funding cuts have cost the centers millions of dollars, with organizers from one center telling NYT's Liam Stack that 'it feels like the dominoes could fall.' … After DOGE cut — and then restarted — contracts with a nonprofit that supplies food for starving children worldwide, 200,000 boxes of food are still sitting in Rhode Island due to the backlog, per the Boston Globe's Tal Kopan. … In Sudan, 'disease and famine are spreading unchecked' after cuts to USAID, WaPo's Katharine Houreld writes.
2. IMMIGRATION FILES: 'The Trump administration has agreed to release from prison a three-time felon and spare him from deportation in exchange for his cooperation in the federal prosecution of Kilmar Abrego García,' WaPo's Maria Sacchetti scooped. 'Jose Ramon Hernandez Reyes, 38, has been convicted of smuggling migrants and illegally reentering the United States after having been deported. He also pleaded guilty to 'deadly conduct' in the Texas incident, and is now the government's star witness in its case against Abrego.'
More immigration reads: DHS and DOGE are building a searchable nationwide citizenship database, designed to be used by state and local officials to ensure only citizens are voting, NPR's Jude Joffe-Block and Miles Parks scooped. … Meanwhile, more advocates are sounding the alarm on conditions in detention centers, with NYT's Miriam Jordan and Jazmine Ulloa reporting how immigrants are sleeping on floors as ICE is in overcapacity.
3. ABOUT LAST NIGHT: James Walkinshaw, the former chief of staff to the late Rep. Gerry Connolly, won the Democratic nomination in yesterday's special election to fill Connolly's seat in northern Virginia, NBC's Dylan Ebs reports. Walkinshaw, who carried 59 percent of the vote, will face off in September against Republican nominee Stewart Whitson as a clear favorite to win in the deep-blue district.
4. ON THE DOCKET: Chief Justice John Roberts gave a rare public interview yesterday and didn't talk about Friday's blockbuster rulings — but he did denounce the growing threats against judges, calling it 'totally unacceptable,' NYT's Abbie VanSickle reports. He warned against political rhetoric that implies that 'a judge who's doing his or her job is part of the problem.'
SCOTUS watch: SCOTUS' ruling on students opting out of LGBTQ+ material in schools is the latest win for the parental rights crowd. WSJ's Matt Barnum reports on how the movement has put parents at the forefront of legal challenges to public education. … Despite fielding insults for months being insufficiently supportive of Trump's agenda, Justice Amy Coney Barrett is back in MAGA's good graces for the time being after writing the opinion on nationwide injunctions that will boost Trump's agenda, per NBC's Lawrence Hurley. … Next up for consideration are a handful of cases on trans athletes in sports, CNN's Devan Cole and John Fritze write. The high court could set oral arguments for next term or punt back down to the lower courts as soon as tomorrow.
5. LIVE FROM NEW YORK: Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani headed to Harlem this weekend to make his case to Black voters, as he works to make headway after a stark reality was revealed in Tuesday's primary: '[Andrew] Cuomo dominated in precincts where at least 70 percent of residents were Black, more than doubling Mr. Mamdani's support, 59 percent to 26 percent,' NYT's Benjamin Oreskes reports.
How Cuomo collapsed: CNN's Edward-Isaac Dovere has the inside story on how Cuomo's campaign flopped. Among its failures was an inability to get the former governor to 'apologize for Covid-19 nursing home deaths or the accusations that he harassed women while governor.' Among his aides, some 'blame themselves for not confronting him to do more to make amends. [Longtime aide longtime aide Melissa] DeRosa, who most people involved thought was best positioned to reach Cuomo, does not. In fact, she told CNN, before asking to speak off the record, 'I didn't really work on the campaign.'' (POLITICO's Sally Goldenberg notes on X: 'She was repeatedly described to [Nick Reisman] and me as the de facto campaign manager.')
The role of TikTok: 'How Social Media Videos Fueled Zohran Mamdani's Success,' by NYT's Dodai Stewart: 'As a millennial politician, Zohran Mamdani is a digital native … He is also the son of an Oscar-nominated filmmaker, with a sharp eye for aesthetics and moving images. … Before long, Mr. Mamdani, a 33-year-old assemblyman, was not just a politician. He was a vibe. He was a meme.'
6. CRUNCH TIME FOR TRADE DEALS: Trade talks with India and Taiwan are moving forward ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. Taiwan has made 'constructive progress' in its second round of talks, per Bloomberg, and India's trade team stayed an extra day in D.C. to negotiate an interim deal, Bloomberg's Shruti Srivastava reports. As the deadline approaches, some experts and analysts see the global economy at a 'pivotal moment' of uncertainty, per Reuters' Marc Jones.
Coming attractions: On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on a panel at the European Central Bank's annual retreat in Portugal, where he'll be joined by economic leaders from the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK. Front and center will be the whiplash from Trump's tariffs and fluctuating oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East, Bloomberg's Craig Stirling reports.
7. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Overnight, Trump took to Truth Social calling yet again for a deal to end the Israel-Hamas war. But this morning, Israel ordered evacuations in northern Gaza, urging Palestinian residents to move south as military operations prepare to escalate, Reuters' Nidal Al-Mughrabi reports. … Earlier yesterday, Trump raged against Israel's prosecution of PM Benjamin Netanyahu and threatened U.S. aid if the trial isn't canceled. 'This is an unprecedented threat in the U.S.-Israeli relations,' Axios' Barak Ravid wrote.
Meanwhile, Iran is throwing cold water on the idea that the Trump-brokered ceasefire with Israel will hold, with armed forces chief of staff Abdolrahim Mousavi saying today that they have 'serious doubts about the enemy's commitment to its obligations' and that they're prepared to strike back if 'aggression is repeated,' per Bloomberg's Arsalan Shahla.
8. BIG LAW VS. TRUMP: 'Inside the fallout at Paul, Weiss after the firm's deal with Trump,' by POLITICO's Daniel Barnes: 'After [Brad] Karp made a deal with Trump, at least 10 partners in the litigation department have resigned from the firm … A group of the departing partners have joined together to start their own firm where they will continue to represent tech giants like Meta and Google … Being the first firm to fold meant Paul, Weiss secured a better deal than those who came later, but it also turned the firm into a lightning rod for anger at Big Law's failure to stand up to Trump.'
9. HUSH HUSH: 'The first rule in Trump's Washington: Don't write anything down,' by WaPo's Hannah Natanson: 'A creeping culture of secrecy is overtaking personnel and budget decisions, casual social interactions, and everything in between, according to interviews with more than 40 employees across two dozen agencies … No one wants to put anything in writing anymore, federal workers said … Trump's own political appointees are also resistant to writing things down, worried that their agency's deliberations will appear in news coverage and inspire a hunt for leakers.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
Dan Abrams is preparing to launch a new restaurant in NYC called 'Danny's.'
PLAYBOOK METRO — Every bus route in D.C. looks a bit different as of today, as WMATA's sweeping bus route redesign takes effect after two years of development. The routes are all being renamed, some of the routes are different and some stops have been retired, per Washingtonian's handy guide by Katie Doran. Here's DC's new bus map
IN MEMORIAM — 'Longtime State Department spokesman, diplomat Richard Boucher, dies at 73,' by AP's Matthew Lee: 'Boucher had been the face of U.S. foreign policy at the State Department podium across administrations throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, beginning in the George H.W. Bush presidency and continuing through Bill Clinton's and George W. Bush's terms in office. Boucher served as the spokesman for secretaries of state James Baker, Madeleine Albright, Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice.'
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — James Braid, director of legislative affairs for the White House, and Melissa Braid, director of public affairs at the Federal Highway Administration and an alum of Senate Commerce, DHS and Interior, recently welcomed Victoria Rose Braid. She joins big brother Derek.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook's own Garrett Ross … Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) … Hanna Trudo … Ropes & Gray's Amish Shah … Laura Rozen … White House's Robin Colwell and Marie Policastro … Josh Meyer … CNN's Evan Pérez … Carl Forti … former Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) … Ben Jarrett … Hal Brewster of Freshfields … Christina Pearson … Don Verrilli of Munger, Tolles & Olson … Max Virkus … Christian Marrone of Standard Industries … Jordan Davis … Roku's Kaya Singleton … Katie Zirkelbach … Vijay Menon of Sen. Josh Hawley's (R-Mo.) office … Owen Kilmer … Kia's Christopher Wenk … Emily Spain … MSNBC's Kenny Reilly … Tony Salters … POLITICO's Caitlin Bugas
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