Trade turns turbulent; here's how India is tracking the winds

Mint

2 days ago

India is building a global trade data intelligence system that will offer real-time insights and early warnings of emerging stress points, two people aware of the matter said. The commerce ministry initiative called Global Trade Watch is modelled on similar efforts in the US, EU and China, and part of a drive to fortify export strategy amid escalating trade volatility.
The initiative will integrate inputs from various ministries and agencies to track sector-specific performance across goods and services. It will be accessible on the ministry's website and also published as a monthly physical booklet every month.
Commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal confirmed that the initiative will be rolled out next month, but did not offer details. A ministry spokesperson didn't respond to emailed queries.
Proactive decision-making
'This marks a clear shift toward proactive and intelligent trade policymaking," one of the two people cited earlier said. 'The feature is built to enhance inter-ministerial coordination and provide policymakers with timely, actionable insights tailored to their respective sectors," the person added.
India's model draws from global best practices such as the US International Trade Commission's sectoral monitoring system, China's AI-driven demand tracking, and the EU's expansive trade surveillance framework.
Initially, it will be available only for policymakers, but will open to the wider public later. The system will flag sectors with flat or declining exports, monitor global trade policy shifts, and identify early signs of disruption or opportunity.
'Timely move'
Global Trade Watch is designed to support timely, data-driven policy responses to changing trade winds. The rollout comes at a time of geopolitical tensions, tariff realignments, and shifting supply chains.
The plan is timely and welcome, said Ajay Sahai, director general, Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO). "In an era of dynamic shifts in global trade, having a credible, data-driven platform to track developments, trends, and policies will be invaluable for exporters, policymakers, and analysts alike. This initiative promises to bring greater transparency, foster informed decision-making and strengthen India's integration with global markets," he said.
The platform will issue general and sector-specific alerts, including notifications on policy changes in key markets, developments related to free trade agreements, commodity-specific shifts, and geography-based risks.
Staying informed
'Unlike static dashboards, Global Trade Watch will deliver sharper, policy-relevant signals that go beyond surface-level data," the person mentioned earlier said. Initially, access will be restricted to line ministries and government departments, with wider access for exporters, investors, and industry associations expected thereafter.
'It will enable ministries to track trade policy shifts across countries, monitor changes affecting specific products, and assess their strategic implications, whether by region, commodity, or trade bloc," the person said. It will also monitor global supply chain disruptions, such as export restrictions on critical minerals, and assess their implications for India.
"This will enable ministries involved in policy-making to stay informed about developments relevant to their sectors, be it in terms of geography, product categories, or areas of strategic interest," the person mentioned above added.
Emerging opportunities
Global Trade Watch will also highlight emerging opportunities arising from changes in free trade agreements (FTAs), trade restrictions, tariff surges, or shifts in geopolitical alignments. Line ministries will receive alerts relevant to their respective import councils, allowing them to assess risks and take corrective steps.
It will also track policy shifts and decisions at the World Trade Organization (WTO), enabling a comprehensive understanding of evolving multilateral trade rules, the second person mentioned above said.
'Given the growing uncertainty in global tariffs, particularly due to US policy moves, Global Trade Watch will keep stakeholders informed on how such changes affect India and its trading partners," said the person mentioned above. 'Since the commerce ministry leads most of the bilateral and multilateral negotiations, the insights will be presented in a simplified, digestible format to help policymakers across sectors act swiftly and with clarity," the person added.
Market trends
Exporters welcomed the initiative. Vipul Shah, former chairman of the Gems & Jewellery Export Promotion Council and managing director of Asian Star Co., said the upcoming feature could improve strategic planning. 'Global Trade Watch will help in understanding evolving market trends, especially in key export destinations," Shah said.
'With timely and structured data, exporters will be better equipped to assess demand patterns, identify emerging opportunities, and plan their export strategies more effectively," he added.
However, some trade experts remain cautious.
Pankaj Chadha, chairman of Engineering Export Promotion Council and managing director of Jyoti Steel Industries said while the feature is a good initiative, the accuracy of the data will be a critical factor. "If the data isn't reliable, then we are all basing our strategies on something that may not reflect the real picture. However, if the data is accurate, I think it will be a very valuable tool for the industry," Chadha added.