The great Bitcoin power shift has large holders dumping 5,00,000 coins
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A silent transfer of control is reshaping the $2.1 trillion Bitcoin market.A steady stream of sales by long-time whales — miners, offshore funds and anonymous wallets — is being met almost one-for-one by demand from institutional players like ETFs, corporates and asset managers. The result: Bitcoin is struggling to break out of its record high around $110,000, volatility is evaporating, and its place in the investment landscape is being reshaped.Despite a flurry of bullish headlines — from corporate treasuries embracing Bitcoin to the Trump administration's full-throated crypto endorsement — the largest digital currency has remained stuck in its trading range for months. Underneath the surface, long-dormant whales have been trimming positions just as institutions ramp up their buying. And this switchover is gradually recasting Bitcoin's identity from a high-octane trade to a slow-burn allocation.Over the past year, large holders, or Bitcoin whales, have offloaded more than 500,000 Bitcoin — worth over $50 billion at current prices — according to data compiled by 10x Research. That's roughly equal to the net inflows into the wildly successful US exchange-traded funds since their approval. And it's not far off from the $65 billion amassed over the past five years by crypto treasury pioneer Michael Saylor and his firm, now known as Strategy.Many of these whales trace back to Bitcoin's earliest cycles, when it traded far below current levels. In some cases, whales aren't simply selling, they're swapping tokens for deals tied to the stock market, bypassing the open market.'What we're seeing is a churning in the base,' said Edward Chin, co-founder of Parataxis Capital. 'A less covered driver and potential reason for the churn and increasing network activity seems to be driven by whales converting their BTC into equity exposure through in-kind contributions of BTC into financing transactions tied to the public markets.'Institutions — from ETFs and Saylor's Strategy to dozens of corporate imitators — now control about a quarter of all Bitcoin in circulation. Back in 2020, researcher Flipside Crypto estimated that about 2% of the anonymous ownership accounts that can be tracked on the cryptocurrency's blockchain controlled 95% of the digital asset. The power dynamic is shifting fast.'Crypto is becoming less of an outlier and more established as a legitimate asset class,' said Rob Strebel, head of relationship management at the trading firm DRW, which includes crypto-focused arm Cumberland. Alongside that shift, 'we expect to see a compression in volatility.'That appears to be already taking place, dampening one of the most alluring aspects of Bitcoin to many traders. A closely watched measure of price swings has declined to the lowest level in about two years, according to Deribit's BTC Volatility Index. The gauge monitors the 30-day forward-looking annualized expectations of volatility.While the whales cut exposure, ETFs, treasury companies and other institutions combined have absorbed nearly 900,000 coins in the past year, according to 10x Research. These players now hold about 4.8 million coins, out of about 20 million Bitcoin in circulation.But even as institutions bring stability and legitimacy to the asset class, some observers warn they're also providing the long-awaited exit ramp for whales, raising the risk that it's retail and retirement investors left holding the bag if crypto sentiment falters.'The goal for a long time has always been to make Bitcoin a palatable asset for institutional investors to provide exit liquidity in volume so the whales could cash out,' said Hilary Allen, a law professor at American University's Washington College of Law, a long-time crypto skeptic.After two straight years in which the price more than doubled, Bitcoin is still hovering around levels reached at the start of the year, despite President Donald Trump's pro-crypto agenda.Some analysts now expect Bitcoin's appreciation to be capped at 10% to 20% a year. That's a far cry from 2017's almost 1,400% surge that pushed the token into the mainstream.'Bitcoin is probably more like boring dividend stock over time,' said Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca. 'On average it goes higher every year, but by less and less amount. It becomes more of an attractive retirement asset.'Still, the picture is incomplete. Not all whale activity is visible, and Bitcoin could prove ever-volatile soon enough, especially if a new market catalyst emerges.Regardless, one big risk right now is imbalance: If Bitcoin whales resume selling at scale while institutional flows plateau, the market could tip into steep declines. Outflows of just 2% in 2018 and 9% in 2022 triggered Bitcoin price drops of 74% and 64%, respectively, according to 10x Research.'We are nearing a point where the market is hitting its peak,' said Fred Thiel, chief executive officer of Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings Inc., which has yet to sell any of its Bitcoin holdings. 'My personal belief, however, is we are in a very different market dynamic today.'All told, the shift from anonymous whales to institutional allocators may help sustain the current market dynamic for an extended period.'This can go on for a long time — years,' said Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research. 'It's more of a slow grind, where Bitcoin becomes more of a 10%-20% asset. The nature of Bitcoin really changes.'
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Business Standard
20 minutes ago
- Business Standard
US tariffs on European goods likely to disrupt world's largest trade ties
America's largest trade partner, the European Union, is among the entities awaiting word Monday on whether US President Donald Trump will impose punishing tariffs on their goods, a move economists have warned would have repercussions for companies and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic. Trump imposed a 20 per cent import tax on all EU-made products in early April as part of a set of tariffs targeting countries with which the United States has a trade imbalance. Hours after the nation-specific duties took effect, he put them on hold until July 9 at a standard rate of 10 per cent to quiet financial markets and allow time for negotiations. Expressing displeasure the EU's stance in trade talks, however, the president said he would jack up the tariff rate for European exports to 50per cent. A rate that high could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals much more expensive in the US. The EU, whose 27 member nations operate as a single economic bloc, said its leaders hoped to strike a deal with the Trump administration. Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes. Here are important things to know about trade between the United States and the European Union. US-EU trade is enormous A lot of money is at stake in the trade talks. The EU's executive commission describes the trade between the US and the EU as "the most important commercial relationship in the world. The value of EU-US trade in goods and services amounted to 1.7 trillion euros ($2 trillion) in 2024, or an average of 4.6 billion euros a day, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat. The biggest US export to Europe is crude oil, followed by pharmaceuticals, aircraft, automobiles, and medical and diagnostic equipment. Europe's biggest exports to the US are pharmaceuticals, cars, aircraft, chemicals, medical instruments, and wine and spirits. EU sells more to the US than vice versa Trump has complained about the EU's 198 billion-euro ($233 billion) trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more stuff from European businesses than the other way around. However, American companies fill some of the gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings, and legal and financial services. The US services surplus took the nation's trade deficit with the EU down to 50 billion euros ($59 billion), which represents less than 3per cent of overall US-EU trade. What are the issues dividing the two sides? Before Trump returned to office, the U.S. and the EU maintained a generally cooperative trade relationship and low tariff levels on both sides. The U.S. rate averaged 1.47 per cent for European goods, while the EU's averaged 1.35 per cent for American products. But the White House has taken a much less friendly posture toward the longstanding US ally since February. Along with the fluctuating tariff rate on European goods Trump has floated, the EU has been subject to his administration's 50 per cent tariff on steel and aluminum and a 25per cent tax on imported automobiles and parts. Trump administration officials have raised a slew of issues they want to see addressed, including agricultural barriers such as EU health regulations that include bans on chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef. Trump has also criticized Europe's value-added taxes, which EU countries levy at the point of sale this year at rates of 17 per cent to 27 per cent. But many economists see VAT as trade-neutral since they apply to domestic goods and services as well as imported ones. Because national governments set the taxes through legislation, the EU has said they aren't on the table during trade negotiations. On the thorny issues of regulations, consumer standards and taxes, the EU and its member states cannot give much ground, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Germany's Berenberg bank, said. They cannot change the way they run the EU's vast internal market according to U.S. demands, which are often rooted in a faulty understanding of how the EU works. What are potential impacts of higher tariffs? Economists and companies say higher tariffs will mean higher prices for US consumers on imported goods. Importers must decide how much of the extra tax costs to absorb through lower profits and how much to pass on to customers. Mercedes-Benz dealers in the US. have said they are holding the line on 2025 model year prices until further notice. The German automaker has a partial tariff shield because it makes 35 per cent of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the U.S. in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said it expects prices to undergo significant increases in coming years. Simon Hunt, CEO of Italian wine and spirits producer Campari Group, told investment analysts that prices could increase for some products or stay the same depending what rival companies do. If competitors raise prices, the company might decide to hold its prices on Skyy vodka or Aperol aperitif to gain market share, Hunt said. Trump has argued that making it more difficult for foreign companies to sell in the US is a way to stimulate a revival of American manufacturing. Many companies have dismissed the idea or said it would take years to yield positive economic benefits. However, some corporations have proved willing to shift some production stateside. France-based luxury group LVMH, whose brands include Tiffany &Co, Luis Vuitton, Christian Dior and Moet & Chandon, could move some production to the United States, billionaire CEO Bernaud Arnault said at the company's annual meeting in April. Arnault, who attended Trump's inauguration, has urged Europe to reach a deal based on reciprocal concessions. If we end up with high tariffs, ... we will be forced to increase our US-based production to avoid tariffs, Arnault said. And if Europe fails to negotiate intelligently, that will be the consequence for many companies. ... It will be the fault of Brussels, if it comes to that. Many expect Trump to drop his most drastic demands Some forecasts indicate the US economy would be more at risk if the negotiations fail. Without a deal, the EU would lose 0.3per cent of its gross domestic product and US GDP would fall 0.7per cent, if Trump slaps imported goods from Europe with tariffs of 10per cent to 25per cent, according to a research review by Bruegel, a think tank in Brussels. Given the complexity of some of the issues, the two sides may arrive only at a framework deal before Wednesday's deadline. That would likely leave a 10per cent base tariff, as well as the auto, steel and aluminum tariffs in place until details of a formal trade agreement are ironed out. The most likely outcome of the trade talks is that the US will agree to deals in which it takes back its worst threats of retaliatory' tariffs well beyond 10per cent, Schmieding said. However, the road to get there could be rocky. The US offering exemptions for some goods might smooth the path to a deal. The EU could offer to ease some regulations that the White House views as trade barriers. While Trump might be able to sell such an outcome as a win' for him, the ultimate victims of his protectionism would, of course, be mostly the US consumers, Schmieding said. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)
The Hindu
22 minutes ago
- The Hindu
U.S. tariffs on European goods threaten to shake up world's largest two-way trade relationship
America's largest trade partner, the European Union, is among the entities awaiting word on Monday (July 7, 2025) on whether U.S. President Donald Trump will impose punishing tariffs on their goods, a move economists have warned would have repercussions for companies and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic. Mr. Trump imposed a 20% import tax on all EU-made products in early April as part of a set of tariffs targeting countries with which the United States has a trade imbalance. Hours after the nation-specific duties took effect, he put them on hold until July 9 at a standard rate of 10% to quiet financial markets and allow time for negotiations. Expressing displeasure the EU's stance in trade talks, however, the President said he would jack up the tariff rate for European exports to 50%. A rate that high could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals much more expensive in the U.S. The EU, whose 27 member nations operate as a single economic bloc, said its leaders hoped to strike a deal with the Trump administration. Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes. Here are important things to know about trade between the United States and the European Union. US-EU trade is enormous A lot of money is at stake in the trade talks. The EU's executive commission describes the trade between the U.S. and the EU as "the most important commercial relationship in the world.' The value of EU-US trade in goods and services amounted to 1.7 trillion euros ($2 trillion) in 2024, or an average of 4.6 billion euros a day, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat. The biggest U.S. export to Europe is crude oil, followed by pharmaceuticals, aircraft, automobiles, and medical and diagnostic equipment. Europe's biggest exports to the US are pharmaceuticals, cars, aircraft, chemicals, medical instruments, and wine and spirits. EU sells more to the US than vice versa Mr. Trump has complained about the EU's 198 billion-euro ($233 billion) trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more stuff from European businesses than the other way around. However, American companies fill some of the gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings, and legal and financial services. The US services surplus took the nation's trade deficit with the EU down to 50 billion euros ($59 billion), which represents less than 3% of overall US-EU trade. What are the issues dividing the two sides? Before Mr. Trump returned to office, the U.S. and the EU maintained a generally cooperative trade relationship and low tariff levels on both sides. The U.S. rate averaged 1.47% for European goods, while the EU's averaged 1.35% for American products. But the White House has taken a much less friendly posture toward the longstanding U.S. ally since February. Along with the fluctuating tariff rate on European goods Trump has floated, the EU has been subject to his administration's 50% tariff on steel and aluminium and a 25% tax on imported automobiles and parts. Trump administration officials have raised a slew of issues they want to see addressed, including agricultural barriers such as EU health regulations that include bans on chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef. Mr. Trump has also criticized Europe's value-added taxes, which EU countries levy at the point of sale this year at rates of 17% to 27%. But many economists see VAT as trade-neutral since they apply to domestic goods and services as well as imported ones. Because national governments set the taxes through legislation, the EU has said they aren't on the table during trade negotiations. 'On the thorny issues of regulations, consumer standards and taxes, the EU and its member states cannot give much ground,' Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Germany's Berenberg bank, said. 'They cannot change the way they run the EU's vast internal market according to U.S. demands, which are often rooted in a faulty understanding of how the EU works.' What are potential impacts of higher tariffs? Economists and companies say higher tariffs will mean higher prices for US consumers on imported goods. Importers must decide how much of the extra tax costs to absorb through lower profits and how much to pass on to customers. Mercedes-Benz dealers in the US. have said they are holding the line on 2025 model year prices 'until further notice.' The German automaker has a partial tariff shield because it makes 35% of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the U.S. in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said it expects prices to undergo 'significant increases' in coming years. Simon Hunt, CEO of Italian wine and spirits producer Campari Group, told investment analysts that prices could increase for some products or stay the same depending what rival companies do. If competitors raise prices, the company might decide to hold its prices on Skyy vodka or Aperol aperitif to gain market share, Hunt said. Trump has argued that making it more difficult for foreign companies to sell in the US is a way to stimulate a revival of American manufacturing. Many companies have dismissed the idea or said it would take years to yield positive economic benefits. However, some corporations have proved willing to shift some production stateside. France-based luxury group LVMH, whose brands include Tiffany &Co, Luis Vuitton, Christian Dior and Moet & Chandon, could move some production to the United States, billionaire CEO Bernaud Arnault said at the company's annual meeting in April. Arnault, who attended Trump's inauguration, has urged Europe to reach a deal based on reciprocal concessions. 'If we end up with high tariffs, ... we will be forced to increase our US.=-based production to avoid tariffs,' Arnault said. 'And if Europe fails to negotiate intelligently, that will be the consequence for many companies. ... It will be the fault of Brussels, if it comes to that.' Many expect Trump to drop his most drastic demands Some forecasts indicate the US economy would be more at risk if the negotiations fail. Without a deal, the EU would lose 0.3% of its gross domestic product and US GDP would fall 0.7%, if Trump slaps imported goods from Europe with tariffs of 10% to 25%, according to a research review by Bruegel, a think tank in Brussels. Given the complexity of some of the issues, the two sides may arrive only at a framework deal before Wednesday's deadline. That would likely leave a 10% base tariff, as well as the auto, steel and aluminum tariffs in place until details of a formal trade agreement are ironed out. The most likely outcome of the trade talks is that 'the US will agree to deals in which it takes back its worst threats of retaliatory' tariffs well beyond 10%,' Schmieding said. 'However, the road to get there could be rocky.' The US offering exemptions for some goods might smooth the path to a deal. The EU could offer to ease some regulations that the White House views as trade barriers. 'While Trump might be able to sell such an outcome as a win' for him, the ultimate victims of his protectionism would, of course, be mostly the US consumers,' Schmieding said.
Mint
22 minutes ago
- Mint
US tariffs on European goods threaten to shake up worlds largest 2-way trade relationship
Frankfurt (Germany), Jul 6 (AP) America's largest trade partner, the European Union, is among the entities awaiting word Monday on whether US President Donald Trump will impose punishing tariffs on their goods, a move economists have warned would have repercussions for companies and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic. Trump imposed a 20% import tax on all EU-made products in early April as part of a set of tariffs targeting countries with which the United States has a trade imbalance. Hours after the nation-specific duties took effect, he put them on hold until July 9 at a standard rate of 10% to quiet financial markets and allow time for negotiations. Expressing displeasure the EU's stance in trade talks, however, the president said he would jack up the tariff rate for European exports to 50%. A rate that high could make everything from French cheese and Italian leather goods to German electronics and Spanish pharmaceuticals much more expensive in the US. The EU, whose 27 member nations operate as a single economic bloc, said its leaders hoped to strike a deal with the Trump administration. Without one, the EU said it was prepared to retaliate with tariffs on hundreds of American products, ranging from beef and auto parts to beer and Boeing airplanes. Here are important things to know about trade between the United States and the European Union. A lot of money is at stake in the trade talks. The EU's executive commission describes the trade between the US and the EU as "the most important commercial relationship in the world.' The value of EU-US trade in goods and services amounted to 1.7 trillion euros ($2 trillion) in 2024, or an average of 4.6 billion euros a day, according to EU statistics agency Eurostat. The biggest US export to Europe is crude oil, followed by pharmaceuticals, aircraft, automobiles, and medical and diagnostic equipment. Europe's biggest exports to the US are pharmaceuticals, cars, aircraft, chemicals, medical instruments, and wine and spirits. EU sells more to the US than vice versa Trump has complained about the EU's 198 billion-euro ($233 billion) trade surplus in goods, which shows Americans buy more stuff from European businesses than the other way around. However, American companies fill some of the gap by outselling the EU when it comes to services such as cloud computing, travel bookings, and legal and financial services. The US services surplus took the nation's trade deficit with the EU down to 50 billion euros ($59 billion), which represents less than 3% of overall US-EU trade. What are the issues dividing the two sides? Before Trump returned to office, the U.S. and the EU maintained a generally cooperative trade relationship and low tariff levels on both sides. The U.S. rate averaged 1.47% for European goods, while the EU's averaged 1.35% for American products. But the White House has taken a much less friendly posture toward the longstanding US ally since February. Along with the fluctuating tariff rate on European goods Trump has floated, the EU has been subject to his administration's 50% tariff on steel and aluminum and a 25% tax on imported automobiles and parts. Trump administration officials have raised a slew of issues they want to see addressed, including agricultural barriers such as EU health regulations that include bans on chlorine-washed chicken and hormone-treated beef. Trump has also criticized Europe's value-added taxes, which EU countries levy at the point of sale this year at rates of 17% to 27%. But many economists see VAT as trade-neutral since they apply to domestic goods and services as well as imported ones. Because national governments set the taxes through legislation, the EU has said they aren't on the table during trade negotiations. 'On the thorny issues of regulations, consumer standards and taxes, the EU and its member states cannot give much ground,' Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Germany's Berenberg bank, said. 'They cannot change the way they run the EU's vast internal market according to U.S. demands, which are often rooted in a faulty understanding of how the EU works.' What are potential impacts of higher tariffs? Economists and companies say higher tariffs will mean higher prices for US consumers on imported goods. Importers must decide how much of the extra tax costs to absorb through lower profits and how much to pass on to customers. Mercedes-Benz dealers in the US. have said they are holding the line on 2025 model year prices 'until further notice.' The German automaker has a partial tariff shield because it makes 35% of the Mercedes-Benz vehicles sold in the U.S. in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, but the company said it expects prices to undergo 'significant increases' in coming years. Simon Hunt, CEO of Italian wine and spirits producer Campari Group, told investment analysts that prices could increase for some products or stay the same depending what rival companies do. If competitors raise prices, the company might decide to hold its prices on Skyy vodka or Aperol aperitif to gain market share, Hunt said. Trump has argued that making it more difficult for foreign companies to sell in the US is a way to stimulate a revival of American manufacturing. Many companies have dismissed the idea or said it would take years to yield positive economic benefits. However, some corporations have proved willing to shift some production stateside. France-based luxury group LVMH, whose brands include Tiffany &Co, Luis Vuitton, Christian Dior and Moet & Chandon, could move some production to the United States, billionaire CEO Bernaud Arnault said at the company's annual meeting in April. Arnault, who attended Trump's inauguration, has urged Europe to reach a deal based on reciprocal concessions. 'If we end up with high tariffs, ... we will be forced to increase our US.=-based production to avoid tariffs,' Arnault said. 'And if Europe fails to negotiate intelligently, that will be the consequence for many companies. ... It will be the fault of Brussels, if it comes to that.' Many expect Trump to drop his most drastic demands Some forecasts indicate the US economy would be more at risk if the negotiations fail. Without a deal, the EU would lose 0.3% of its gross domestic product and US GDP would fall 0.7%, if Trump slaps imported goods from Europe with tariffs of 10% to 25%, according to a research review by Bruegel, a think tank in Brussels. Given the complexity of some of the issues, the two sides may arrive only at a framework deal before Wednesday's deadline. That would likely leave a 10% base tariff, as well as the auto, steel and aluminum tariffs in place until details of a formal trade agreement are ironed out. The most likely outcome of the trade talks is that 'the US will agree to deals in which it takes back its worst threats of retaliatory' tariffs well beyond 10%,' Schmieding said. 'However, the road to get there could be rocky.' The US offering exemptions for some goods might smooth the path to a deal. The EU could offer to ease some regulations that the White House views as trade barriers. 'While Trump might be able to sell such an outcome as a win' for him, the ultimate victims of his protectionism would, of course, be mostly the US consumers,' Schmieding said. (AP)
