Risk of Severe Weather Looms Over Eastern Half of the U.S.

New York Times

16-05-2025

Large portions of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic are at significant risk of severe weather on Friday, as a multiday storm system moves slowly to the East. A bull's-eye centered over southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois and Indiana and central and western Kentucky highlighted an area at risk for some of the most severe thunderstorms.
These storms will be capable of unleashing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, possibly some strong ones.
'I'd be surprised if we didn't see some tornadoes in that corridor,' said Aaron Gleason, a meteorologist with the Storm Prediction Center.
Here are the key things to know:
The threat of thunderstorms on Friday generally stretches from eastern Texas into the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast and is concentrated over the middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley with varying degrees of risk.
'It's a fairly broad area for severe potential, and it looks like all hazards could be possible,' Mr. Gleason said.
The area of highest concerns includes the cities of Bloomington, Ind.; Evansville, Ind.; Louisville, Ky.; and St. Louis.
Those areas are at particular risk of supercells, highly organized, longer-lasting storms that produce even stronger winds and larger hail — in the case of Friday, bigger than baseballs — than typical thunderstorms.
'The same storms that produce very large hail are also the ones that we tend to be most concerned about from a tornado perspective,' Mr. Gleason said. 'There are probably going to be a lot of storms and a lot severe reports if things work out as forecast, unfortunately.'
The National Weather Service office in St. Louis warned of hail of nearly three inches, damaging winds and a 'low chance of a strong tornado.'
The clash between a cool air mass dropping down from the north and warm, moist air coming in from the Gulf will help create the sort of instability in the atmosphere on Friday that can fuel powerful thunderstorms. That moisture flow will also deliver some rain over the Ohio Valley into the mid-Mississippi Valley and the South on Friday.
'Parts of Kentucky particularly and southern Ohio will have the potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms and each producing heavy rain,' said Richard Bann, a meteorologist with the Weather Prediction Center.
The threat of thunderstorms comes to the Midwest in a week marked by unseasonably warm weather. The heat is expected to continue on Friday with many locations across the region forecast to record afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s. Lower temperatures are predicted to arrive this weekend as cooler drier air sweeps in from the northwest.
'It's an active period and nothing unusual for May,' Mr. Gleason said. 'This is typically when a lot of severe weather tends to occur across the country.'