There Is a High Price to Pay for Mistreating Allies

Yomiuri Shimbun

27-06-2025

The 'Trump shocks' have continued to come one after another. There is also the possibility that a seismic event will ripple out from an epicenter in Beijing. How will the world change after that, and how should we respond?
In Ukraine, the future of the war is uncertain. U.S. President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin in February, and they agreed to begin negotiations on a ceasefire in Ukraine. On the same day, the United States made it clear at an international conference on support for Ukraine that Europe should do more on its own to ensure the region's security and that it should provide 'security guarantees' to Ukraine.
The U.S. and Russia held high-level talks in Saudi Arabia to prepare for a possible in-person summit between Trump and Putin — though representatives from Ukraine were not invited.Despite the Trump administration's moves to reconcile with Russia, ceasefire negotiations have not gone well so far.
In the other direction, Ukraine and the United States have signed an agreement on natural resources development, which is focused on jointly exploring mineral and energy resources.
For its part, Germany has decided to increase its defense spending. European leaders aim to agree on a defense spending goal of 5% of their gross domestic product at a summit meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that will take place later in June. Trump, who has been pressing Washington's allies to shoulder a greater share of the defense burden, is probably thinking, 'I have a deal.'
However, there will be a steep price to pay. Alliances cannot survive and be stable long-term without mutual trust among member countries. The Trump administration has greatly undermined this trust. It appears that NATO's European member countries have already concluded that they should improve their strategic autonomy in the fields of diplomacy and security.
The situation may not be as serious yet in the Indo-Pacific. In their summit in February, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Trump reaffirmed that the Japan-U.S. alliance 'remains the cornerstone of peace, security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.' They stressed 'the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait' and reiterated their strong opposition to Beijing's unlawful maritime claims, militarization of reclaimed land and threatening and provocative activities in the South China Sea.
In May, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the Indo-Pacific 'our priority theater' when touching on the Trump administration's strategy for the region in his speech during the Asia Security Summit in Singapore. He warned that 'any attempt' by China to reunify with Taiwan through force 'would result in devastating consequences.' He emphasized that the United States would strengthen alliances and multilateral partnerships 'to deter Chinese aggression.'
Peace through strength?
Though Trump has advocated 'peace through strength,' what he likely wants is 'We do it without fighting.' It is not clear how Trump would respond to 'Chinese aggression' or attempts by China to change the status quo in the South China Sea by force.
Trump has also caused a major shock to the economy.
His administration imposed a 10% baseline tariff on goods imported from all countries and regions, which was quickly followed by the announcement of additional tariffs, varying by country. The administration has also raised tariffs on specific items such as automobiles, steel and aluminum.
Trump's 'reciprocal tariffs' appear to be aimed at reviving domestic manufacturing, rectifying trade imbalances and securing fiscal resources to pay for tax cuts, among other goals. Even if the manufacturing industry does come back, it will take time. The United States will not be able to rid itself of trade deficits until it remedies its overconsumption. Tax cuts will likely further balloon the government's debt.
What is more, these reciprocal tariffs have targeted allies, like Japan, and friendly nations. This is like using one hand to shake hands with someone while slapping them with the other hand.
Nevertheless, it is still possible to know, to a certain extent, what is going on in the Trump administration.
By contrast, it is unclear what is happening in China. However, there is a high possibility that significant changes are occurring in the highest echelon of the Chinese Communist Party.
Chinese President Xi Jinping issued an important directive this spring that stressed the need for 'scientific, democratic and law-based decision-making' in formulating China's 15th Five-year Plan (2026-2030) for economic and social development. Xi's wording matches that of Hu Jintao, former president and general secretary of the Communist Party, in his report about the party's activities during its 2012 National Congress.
In China's armed forces, many of the pro-Xi generals have been purged. It seems clear that there have been deep disagreements in the Communist Party over how to tackle such issues as the slump in the economy, growing unemployment and isolation in the international community owing to its overproduction, excessive competition and dumping of products on foreign markets. Beijing's response to Trump's reciprocal tariffs must also have been debated. The CCP may change its basic policy. A Sino-U.S. grand bargain may be in the offing.
Fraying of the Pax Americana
One way to frame the situation would be as follows:
Since the end of the Cold War, the world has been kept stable by two maritime alliances — the U.S.-led NATO and the 'hubs and spokes' alliance system in the Asia-Pacific. Globalization evolved under the Pax Americana with the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant reserve currency. At the heart of globalization has been the principle of the free movement of capital and goods across borders.
The Pax Americana is fraying, however, due to Russia's aggression against Ukraine, China's attempts to change the status quo and Trump's disregard for U.S. allies. The American people are divided over how far they should go to maintain the Pax Americana. The same can be said about the trade system, which has been roiled by Trump's reciprocal tariffs — a violation of World Trade Organization agreements.
Considering that global imbalances have basically stemmed from China's overinvestment and overproduction and the United States' overconsumption, the global currency regime and financial system may face further turmoil, depending on what gets passed in a bill centered on large-scale tax cuts that is currently being debated in the U.S. Congress.
So, what should be done? Japan is not a superpower; it accounted for only 3.7% of the global economy in 2024. Nevertheless, it does occupy a strategic position both geopolitically and geoeconomically. And one of Japan's strengths is that it is trusted internationally at a time when the United States and China are both busy destroying their credibility.
The important thing for Japan is to increase its strategic autonomy and indispensability, while contributing to global and regional peace, stability and prosperity, with international trust as the key guiding principle. In connection with this, let me touch on three points.
First, Japan should help itself before it can expect help from other countries. Japan should reinforce its defenses as needed, and not fixate on the government's target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. While Japan's own security and the Japan-U.S. alliance, which is a cornerstone of the security of the Indo-Pacific region, should be maintained as a touchstone, Japan should seek to strengthen partnerships with like-minded countries and its quasi-allies — Australia, the Philippines and the United Kingdom.
Second, since Russia invaded Ukraine, the terms national security and economic security have become virtually synonymous.
The concept of 'manufacturing' has to be reinvented. What is needed now is 'new manufacturing,' which promotes AI- and data-driven innovation that is integrated with services, as the foundation of national strength. Emerging cutting-edge technologies and industries such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology and advanced semiconductors are crucial, but new manufacturing in steel, shipbuilding and machinery is of equal strategic importance.
Third, Japan should protect and foster rules-based, free and open markets. Free trade is the basis of prosperity for Japan and the world. Japan should work with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union, among other regional groupings, to expand the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Creating a 'global common market' should be the future goal.
Takashi Shiraishi
Takashi Shiraishi is a scholar of Asian studies and distinguished university professor at the Prefectural University of Kumamoto, where he served as chancellor until the end of March 2024. Prior to that, he was president of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies from 2011 to 2017, and president of the Institute of Developing Economies, part of the Japan External Trade Organization, from 2007 to 2018.The original article in Japanese appeared in the June 22 issue of The Yomiuri Shimbun.