What does France's decision to recognise Palestine mean?
The French president said in a letter to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and posted on X that he will formalise the decision at the UN General Assembly in September. 'France will rally in favour of the implementation of the two-state solution, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security,' Macron wrote.
'This solution is the only path forward which allows us to respond to the legitimate aspirations of Israelis as well as Palestinians,' he added.
But what does recognising Palestine mean? Why does it matter? And what is likely to happen?
What does it mean?
France is the most powerful country in Europe to have said it would recognise a Palestinian state, soon joining 147 states that have already done so.
It will also join the 11 European countries that officially recognise Palestinian statehood, including Spain, Ireland, Sweden, Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria.
For many of these countries, the act of recognition means acknowledging the sovereignty and independence of Palestine within its pre-1967 borders (ie, in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem) and establishing full diplomatic relations with the country. France would then join the countries that already host a full-fledged Palestinian embassy.
Why it (somewhat) matters?
France has Europe's largest Jewish population, as well as the largest Muslim population in Western Europe. As one of the founding fathers of the European Union, its voice carries significant weight not only in Europe but also around the world.
Its decision to recognise Palestine is likely to put additional pressure on Israel at a time when the word genocide is used by a growing number of historians and legal experts to designate Tel Aviv's war in the Gaza Strip.
Earlier this week, more than 100 leading organisations including Doctors Without Borders, Amnesty International and Oxfam said that famine is widespread across Gaza. Yet, the humanitarian situation on the ground is unlikely to improve. US-sponsored ceasefire talks in Doha failed after Washington withdrew, saying Hamas was not acting 'in good faith.'
'France's recognition of Palestine sends a signal to Israel that it is paying a political price among its allies for its actions in Gaza,' said Martin Konecny, who runs the European Middle East Project in Brussels. 'It also counters the Israeli effort to erase the possibility of a Palestinian state.'
It is also unlikely that such a move would have any legal knock-on effect, including on trade relations with Palestine. But Konecny said it could be used in court procedures in the future, at the International Criminal Court or national courts 'where this argument could play a role.'
Observers point out that Macron is hoping to pressure his European allies, including the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy, to take a stance and revive the long-defunct two-state solution, whereby a Palestinian state would be created alongside Israel in the West Bank and Gaza, with East Jerusalem as its capital. This arrangement had been the basis of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations since the 1993 Oslo peace accord.
Macron's recognition makes the two-state solution 'even more urgent than before,' Konecny said, but 'additional measures on Israel' will be needed in order to end the war in Gaza as well as the settlement expansion in the West Bank.
While the Palestinian Authority still advocates for two states, Israel no longer supports this solution to the conflict, nor does its US ally. In fact, settlement activity on the West Bank has further expanded in the past years, rendering the creation of a contiguous Palestinian state impossible.
Add to that, US President Donald Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital in 2017, prompting the US embassy to move there from Tel Aviv. The two-state solution advocated by Macron seems highly symbolic and unfeasible as things stand on the ground.
On Friday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also slammed Macron's move to recognise a Palestinian state, calling it a 'reckless decision' that 'only serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace.'
By contrast, many EU governments already support a two-state solution but argue that official recognition of Palestine should go hand in hand with a long-term solution to the conflict in the Middle East.
'We can no longer accept massacres and famine,' Italy's Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told state news agency ANSA on Friday. 'Italy is favourable to the solution of two people and two states but the recognition of a new state of Palestine should be done at the same time as the recognition of a state of Israel by the Palestinians.' While the Palestinian Authority does recognise Israel, Hamas does not.
'What interests us is peace, not the victory of one over the other,' Tajani said.
Pressure for the recognition of Palestine has intensified in the UK, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer scheduled to hold an emergency call with Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz later on Friday.
What is next?
But many political analysts also say Macron's move is a largely symbolic foreign policy tool that would boost the French president's profile but is unlikely to result in any changes to the situation on the ground.
The once self-described, all-mighty 'Jupiterian' president has focused his last possible term on foreign policy, leaving his embattled prime minister dealing with France's mammoth budget deficit and controversial retirement reform.
'It is important for France's foreign policy but not for the Palestinians,' said Maria Luisa Frantappié, who heads the Mediterranean, Middle East and Africa Programme at Italian Instituto Affari Internazionali think tank. 'It will mainly boost France's credibility,' she said, especially among the global South actors.
'The danger is that a lot of diplomatic energy will focus on something that is totally inadequate in the face of what we are seeing in the ground,' Konecny said.
Both analysts agreed that a much more consequential action would be for Europe, which has been historically sidelined in attempting to mediate a political solution to the conflict, to review its trade ties with Israel through the EU-Israel association agreement.
But the EU is far too divided on the issue. Earlier this month, the EU's foreign affairs ministers decided to delay agreeing on a list of 10 options to respond to Israel's action in Gaza during a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council. They also agreed to 'keep a close watch' on Israel's compliance with a recent agreement to improve humanitarian aid access into Gaza.
Last but not least, a shift in position would need to come from Germany, a country that has so far been governed by the so-called 'Staatsraison,' a sense of responsibility towards Israel which comes from the legacy of the Nazi Holocaust.
So far, Germany has no plans to follow in Macron's footsteps in the short term. On Friday, government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius told German media that Germany continues to regard the recognition of Palestine as "one of the final steps on the path to achieving a two-state solution."
At the same time, the German government is also "prepared to increase the pressure" if no progress is made in resolving the conflict, Kornelius said.
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