Poll: Just 22% of Americans believe Trump's claim that U.S. strikes have 'completely and totally obliterated' Iran's nuclear program

Yahoo

2 days ago

Just 22% of Americans believe President Trump's claim that the recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran have 'completely and totally obliterated' that country's 'key nuclear facilities,' according to a new Yahoo/YouGov poll.
And just 31% of Americans believe the U.S. attacks will ultimately do 'more good than harm' — while far more say the opposite (49%).
The survey of 1,597 U.S. adults, which was conducted from June 26 to 30, shows serious public skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump's decision last month to drop more than a dozen bunker-buster bombs on Iran's Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites. (A third site, Isfahan, was struck by Tomahawk missiles.)
Since then, the president and his allies have repeatedly insisted that the mission accomplished its objective: 'the destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and a stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror," as Trump put it on June 22.
But other reports have suggested that the Iranians might have moved their stash of enriched uranium before the strikes — and that the U.S. bombings left at least some of Tehran's nuclear program intact.
Because Trump ran as a 'candidate of peace' who would keep the U.S. out of costly foreign wars, the aftermath of preemptively attacking Iran — whether the regime redoubles or reduces its nuclear efforts; whether it negotiates or lashes out — will determine whether Americans ultimately see Trump's unprecedented decision as a success or a failure.
For now, the public is divided over the strikes themselves, with 41% of Americans saying they approve and 42% saying they disapprove. Approval is higher among Republicans (79%) than disapproval is among Democrats (71%) — but independents disapprove (50%) rather than approve (35%) by a 15-point margin.
Likewise, 43% of Americans say Trump has "gone too far" in bombing Iranian nuclear sites, while 35% say his actions were about right, and 8% say he did not go far enough. Those numbers essentially match the approval-disapproval numbers above.
At the same time, however, only 37% of Americans approve of the president's handling of 'the war between Israel and Iran,' while a full 54% disapprove.
Why such a big gap? The new Yahoo/YouGov poll suggests that whatever Americans might think of the attacks themselves, they have questions about how we got here — and worries about what comes next.
For starters, far more Americans say they approve (47%) than disapprove (25%) of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that 'dismantled much of its nuclear program and opened its facilities to more extensive international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars' worth of sanctions relief.' And far more disapprove (54%) than approve (20%) of the U.S. withdrawing from that deal during Trump's first term — after which Iran 'resumed its nuclear activities.'
Meanwhile, only 39% of Americans believe the claim by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that launched the war: that Iran was on track to build a nuclear device "within months and certainly less than a year.' The rest are either not sure (35%) or do not believe Netanyahu (26%). And just 36% approve of Israel's own decision to attack 'key Iranian nuclear facilities' and assassinate 'several top Iranian nuclear scientists.'
In other words, more Americans than not suspect that striking Iran might have been avoidable.
Then there's the aftermath to contend with. Asked whether they think Iran is more or less likely to pursue a nuclear weapon now, after the U.S. airstrikes, just 12% of Americans say less likely. A far greater share say that pursuit is now more likely (44%) or about the same (30%).
Similarly, just 17% of Americans say Iran is now more likely to agree to a new nuclear deal (which the Trump administration had been pushing); again, a far greater share say a new deal is either less likely (37%) or about the same (23%).
As a result, a mere 19% of Americans say the strikes have made the U.S. safer, while more than twice as many think they've made the U.S. less safe (47%). Another quarter or so (22%) think the attacks have made no difference at all.
Aside from questions about whether Trump's Iran strike was worth the risk, Americans seem to harbor doubts about whether it even did as much damage as he claims.
On June 24, Reuters and other outlets reported on a preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment that determined the strikes had sealed off the entrances to two of Iran's key nuclear facilities but had not collapsed their underground buildings — an outcome that would set back Iran's nuclear program by only 'a few months.'
The Trump administration has disputed this assessment, but when asked, Americans are more inclined to say they believe it (36%) than not (25%). Many (38%) remain unsure.
Overall, just 30% of Americans think the strikes achieved Trump's stated objective of destroying Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and stopping Iran's nuclear threat — and even among those respondents, far more say the effect will be temporary (21%) rather than permanent (5%).
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The Yahoo survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,597 U.S. adults interviewed online from June 26 to 30, 2025. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 election turnout and presidential vote, party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Party identification is weighted to the estimated distribution at the time of the election (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov's opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 3.2%.