Putin's new ally has nukes — and nothing to lose

AllAfrica

18-07-2025

North Korea is now supplying critical artillery shells and ballistic missiles to Russian forces in Ukraine, with North Korean personnel reportedly helping maintain these systems on the battlefield.
This unlikely partnership reveals a troubling reality: the isolated nation has become one of Moscow's most reliable military suppliers — not because of its technological prowess, but because its nuclear arsenal shields it from meaningful Western retaliation.
The implications go beyond the battlefield. This marks a significant expansion of Russia's support network — one that complements, rather than replaces, its relationship with Iran.
While Iran continues to provide Moscow with sophisticated drones and regional disruption capabilities, its utility as a wartime partner is increasingly constrained. Domestic unrest has drawn Tehran's focus inward, while US and Israeli operations have made its leadership cautious about exposing critical military assets.
Most importantly, Iran's decision to remain a nuclear threshold state — a move calculated to preserve leverage without inviting full-scale war — leaves it vulnerable to foreign intervention. Iran must weigh each escalatory step, constantly calibrating risk. North Korea does not.
Despite its isolation and economic hardship, Pyongyang operates with impunity. Its nuclear arsenal, though crude, grants absolute protection from regime-change scenarios. This allows Kim Jong Un to act boldly — supplying weapons, personnel and support without hesitation or fear of reprisal. When Russia needs ammunition, North Korea doesn't hesitate. When Moscow seeks unconditional loyalty, Pyongyang obliges.
The economic angle is equally revealing. North Korea's continued arms exports, despite global sanctions, expose the limits of Western financial pressure against nuclear-armed states. These deals likely rely on barter, sanctioned intermediaries or alternative currencies, bypassing the Western-dominated financial system entirely.
This emerging 'division of labor' serves all parties. Iran maintains plausible deniability while pursuing regional goals. North Korea monetizes its military stockpiles and showcases its strategic relevance. Russia receives diverse forms of support tailored to each partner's risk tolerance.
What's forming is not a formal alliance but an ecosystem — one defined by transactional partnerships, hardened regimes and nuclear immunity.
For Washington, this presents a sobering dilemma. The standard toolkit — sanctions, isolation, limited military threats — loses its effectiveness when adversaries are nuclear-armed, deeply sanctioned and increasingly interconnected.
The more these states cooperate, the harder they become to isolate or deter. North Korea doesn't need to be strong. It only needs to be useful — and untouchable. That's the new model. And it's not theoretical anymore.
When nuclear weapons become a passport to participation in global conflicts — rather than just a deterrent against invasion — rogue states don't just survive – they thrive. That's not just a challenge for American strategy. It's a fundamental rewriting of the rules of power.
Kurt Davis Jr is a Millennium Fellow at the Atlantic Council and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He advises private, public, and state-owned companies and creditors globally on cross-border transactions.