Trump's megabill is creating a budget nightmare for states

Politico

13 hours ago

'While the legislation is terrible, it is good ammo for governors in battleground states,' said Matt Grodsky, a Democratic consultant in Arizona. 'In Arizona we know this will increase costs on families, utility rates will go up, for some families taxes will go up, and even if you're not on Medicaid chances are your older relatives are.'
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a frequent Trump critic, will focus his campaign messaging on the president. 'It's the federal government and MAGA Republicans that are at fault for your food assistance, your rural hospitals closing or you getting kicked off Medicaid,' said a person close to Pritzker's reelection campaign, hinting at the Democratic governor's strategy for maneuvering around state budget concerns.
Last week, Pritzker featured the owner of Billie's coffee shop in Chicago talking about the local business affect of the president's trade policies, as a way to localize Trump's actions and influence swing voters. 'Packaging bags, the costs have increased,' the owner Gina says in the video. 'Those are things that I feel like President Trump has created. We have cut as much as we can at this point. We need some stability, and that's not what we've seen so far.'
Republicans are confident they can beat back the attacks by claiming they are effectively combating waste, fraud and abuse in welfare programs, while pointing to the bill's popular provisions like eliminating taxes on tips or overtime.
Yet House Speaker Mike Johnson has privately conceded that the deeper Medicaid cuts pushed by the Senate will force House Republicans to lose their slim majority next year. Publicly, Johnson has struck a more optimistic tone, repeatedly telling reporters that he has 'no concerns' about the bill costing Republicans' seats.
Republicans know the megabill could end up hurting them. That's particularly relevant in Arizona, where Hobbs might face a challenge from Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, who voted for the legislation. 'I can imagine voters will be reminded on an hourly basis that any cuts will be laid at the feet of Congress and President Trump,' GOP strategist Barrett Marson said.
Should Hobbs — facing one of the most competitive gubernatorial races next year — successfully channel backlash to the megabill to help her win reelection, she will have other problems to deal with.
An estimated 360,000 Arizonans stand to lose their Medicaid coverage. And experts have identified five rural hospitals on the brink of closure due to reduced revenue from Medicaid patients. The federal government shifting Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program administration costs onto states could mean that Arizona will strain to continue feeding the 1 in 8 residents who rely on it to buy groceries.