How hot will the UK weather be for the rest of the summer holidays?

Yahoo

2 days ago

With the school summer holidays now in full swing, will there be a repeat of recent heatwaves?
Last month, we enjoyed - or endured - one of the hottest Junes on record, including two heatwaves.
The hot weather continued going into July, with a third heatwave of the year recorded.
It has recently given way to cooler and wetter weather, with sharp downpours in recent days.
But with the school summer holidays now in full swing, what can we expect from the following six weeks?
When will the next UK heatwave be?
The Met Office defines a heatwave as "when a location records a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding" a certain temperature threshold.
This threshold varies by area. For example, it is 28C in London, compared to 25C in the North East.
But the Met Office does not offer long-term predictions for heatwaves. In recent years, it has become increasingly vocal against media reports, citing questionable sources, predicting extreme weather events such as heatwaves or snow.
"At a long forecast length," it says in guidance, "we have to acknowledge that many outcomes remain possible, even though only one can eventually happen.
"Weather stories suggesting the 'exact date' a snowstorm or heatwave will hit, in the months ahead, should be treated with extreme caution and these stories risk undermining the credibility of meteorology.
"Inevitably, these stories can sometimes prove to be true, but it doesn't mean they can be counted on in any real sense. The only way to be sure is to trust the experts and follow their advice when the weather is uncertain."
How hot will it be for the rest of summer?
The Met Office provides forecasts looking up to 28 days ahead, with nothing in these currently hinting at anything out of the ordinary for this time of year.
Its forecast for 29 July to 7 August predicts rain and showers at the start of this period, especially in the north and west of the country.
Dry and sunny weather is more likely in southern and eastern parts of the country, with "temperatures generally near average though with some warmer spells likely".
The Met Office forecast for 8 August to 22 August predicts "prolonged dry and sunny weather, especially across the south of the country but potentially spreading to all areas at times. Temperatures will likely be near or above average overall.
"There is a chance of some very warm or hot spells, especially in the south and east."
Met Office records show the mean maximum temperature in August last year was 19.5C.
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