Heat waves are only going to get WORSE, warn scientists - and some cities could experience an extra MONTH of oppressive heat per year

Daily Mail​

2 days ago

European countries have been forced to issue wildfire and health warnings as a punishing heatwave grips the continent.
Temperatures have exceeded 40°C (104°F) throughout much of southern Europe, melting roads in Italy and igniting raging wildfires in Greece.
But scientists say that this year's extreme heat is only the start, with climate change set to make heatwaves more frequent, longer, and even more deadly.
Professor Richard Allan, of the University of Reading, told MailOnline: 'Rising greenhouse gas levels due to human activities are making it more difficult for Earth to lose excess heat to space, and the warmer, thirstier atmosphere is more effective at drying soils, meaning heatwaves are intensifying.'
That means conditions which would have once created 'moderate' events are now leading to heatwaves which scientists classify as 'extreme'.
If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, studies suggest that Europe will be 3.1°C (5.6°F) warmer than before the Industrial Revolution.
In that scenario, European cities might face month-long heatwaves with temperatures above 40°C (104°F) becoming commonplace.
Some cities like Madrid and Seville could face an extra month of temperatures above 35°C (95°F) each year.
PORTUGAL: A man sunbathes near the Tagus River in Lisbon as a heat bomb hits Europe on Sunday
ENGLAND: A sunbather keeps his head in the shade with the help of a stack of deck chairs in Green Park, London on Monday
How hot could Europe become?
As climate change traps more heat in the Earth's atmosphere, heatwaves are becoming more common and more extreme.
Temperatures of 46.6°C (115.9°F) are now 'plausible' in the UK, while days above 40°C (104°F) are 20 times likelier than in 1960.
By 2100, Europe could be 3.1°C (5.6°F).
That would mean cities across Southern and Eastern Europe experience an average increase of 10 days per year with temperatures above 35°C (95°F).
Madrid, the worst-affected city, could face 77 days above 35°C (95°F) each year.
Meanwhile, heatwaves lasting for an entire month could become common throughout Europe.
If humanity does not reduce the amount of greenhouse gases being put into the environment each year, extreme events will only become more common and more severe, experts have warned.
Heatwaves which were once one-in-50-year events now occur every five years as increasing levels of carbon dioxide trap more heat in Earth's system.
Summertime temperatures in Western Europe have already risen by 2.6°C (4.7°F) on average in the past 50 years and will only continue to increase in the future if nothing is done, scientists say.
At 3°C (5.4°F) of warming, cities across Southern and Eastern Europe could experience an average increase of 10 days per year with temperatures above 35°C (95°F), according to a study.
The worst-affected cities, such as Madrid, could face up to 77 days a year above 35°C by 2100 if nothing is done to curb climate change.
Dr Jamie Dyke, an Earth systems scientists from the University of Exeter, told MailOnline: 'If we do not quickly end the burning of fossil fuels then by the middle of this century the heatwave that is currently subjecting millions of people across Europe to crippling heat and humidity could be happening every other year.'
Dr Dyke adds that conditions are now so dire that Europe faces 'the prospects of mass mortality events along with collapse of farming systems.'
Likewise, research conducted by the Met Office found that heatwaves above 40°C (104°F) will soon become the norm in the UK.
The study, published in the journal Weather, shows that there is now a 50/50 chance of the UK hitting 40°C again in the next 12 years - 20 times more likely than it was during the 1960s.
Worryingly, the researchers warn that even hotter temperatures are possible, with a maximum of 46.6°C (115.9°F) now 'plausible' in today's climate.
Professor John Marsham, an atmospheric scientist from the University of Leeds, told MailOnline: 'Climate change has already made UK summers warmer, and heatwaves more likely and more intense.
'Heatwaves will continue to get worse until we essentially phase out fossil fuels and reach net-zero.'
Our buildings, transport and farming are simply not set up for the extremes we increasingly experience.'
The inevitable consequence of these increasingly hot summers is that more people will die every year.
Extreme temperatures place significant stress on our bodies, as our respiratory system fights to reduce the core body temperature.
This places a strain on the heart, kidneys, and digestive organs, which can lead to serious complications over time.
ENGLAND: Sunbathers flocked to the packed beach at the seaside resort of Lyme Regis on Monday
These conditions increase the risk of heart and organ failure, especially among children, the elderly, and those with underlying health conditions.
Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, an expert on extreme weather-related mortality from Imperial College London, told MailOnline: 'The evidence is unequivocal: unless strong mitigation and adaptation measures are implemented, most European cities will face rising heat-related mortality.'
A heatwave in 2022 killed 61,000 people in Europe, with over half of those of those deaths only occurring because of climate change's impact.
That 2022 heatwave was 'strikingly comparable' to this year's extreme heat, but the ultimate health toll won't be clear until after the end of summer.
However, the four days of heatwave between June 19 and 22 were estimated to have killed 570 people in England and Wales alone, according to a study by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London.
Dr Konstantinoudis believes that the true number of deaths may well be higher.
'Heatwaves are silent killers. Unlike floods or storms, their impact can be invisible: people who die during extreme heat usually have pre-existing health conditions, and heat is rarely recorded as a contributing cause of death, says Dr Konstantinoudis.
What is clear is that if temperatures in Europe continue to rise on current trends, the number of people killed will increase.
SPAIN: Emergency medical staff in Spain readied to deal with an unexpected surge in heatstroke cases. Pictured: Medical dispatchers wait for calls to Madrid's SUMMA emergency medical services number at the main emergency call centre for the whole Madrid region, in Valdebebas, on the outskirts of Madrid, on June 26
SPAIN: Tourists cool off under a cloud of mist at the Plaza de la Reina during a heat wave in Valencia on Sunday
DORSET: Brightly coloured parasols were a mainstay on beaches across the UK today as sunworshippers looked for some time in the shade on Monday
TYNEMOUTH: People attempted to cool off in the North Sea at King Edwards Bay on Monday
A recent report by the UK Climate Change Commission has estimated that heat-related deaths could rise to over 10,000 in an average year by 2050 if ongoing fossil fuel burning causes warming to reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Likewise, in a 3°C warming scenario, forecasts by the EU Joint Research Centre show heat-related mortality in Europe could triple with respect to today.
Professor Hugh Montgomery, a professor of Intensive Care Medicine at University College London, says: 'These impacts will worsen as heatwaves do.
'As a doctor working with the critically ill, I know that delaying action when severe symptoms appear can be fatal. We must likewise take action on Climate Change now, not just treating those symptoms, but their cause.'
Europe is currently experiencing an extreme heatwave amidst what is already anticipated to be one of the hottest Junes on record.
Temperatures in Spain could rise to a hellish high of 47°C (116°F) while the UK faces 36°C (96.8°F) highs and a 'rise in deaths' this weekend.
The current extreme weather in Europe is caused by a 'heat dome' which has created stable, cloud-free conditions which allow heat to build up.
Although heat domes are natural events, it is an undeniable fact that human-caused climate change has made this spell of hot weather even warmer.
Modelling shows that the four days of heatwave between June 19 and 22 killed an estimated 570 people in England and Wales alone
Dr Michael Byrne, a climate scientist at the University of St Andrews, told MailOnline: 'Heat domes are nothing new – they have always occurred and will continue to do so.
'What is new is that when a heat dome strikes, temperatures get higher because Europe is more than 2°Cs warmer than in pre-industrial times.
'So climate change is not necessarily driving more heat domes, but when they happen, they lead to more intense heatwaves.'
There has not yet been what scientists call an 'attribution study', a piece of research to work out how much of the excess heat is caused by human activity, for the coming weekend's weather.
This will have to come in the days and weeks following the event once scientists have more data to work with.
However, the evidence is already extremely clear that this extreme event has been made worse by climate change.
Dr Friederike Otto, a leading climate scientist from Imperial College London and founder of World Weather Attribution, says: 'We absolutely do not need to do an attribution study to know that this heatwave is hotter than it would have been without our continued burning of oil, coal and gas.
'Countless studies have shown that climate change is an absolute game-changer when it comes to heat in Europe, making heatwaves much more frequent, especially the hottest ones, and more intense.'
THE PARIS AGREEMENT: A GLOBAL ACCORD TO LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISES THROUGH CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION TARGETS
The Paris Agreement, which was first signed in 2015, is an international agreement to control and limit climate change.
It hopes to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C (3.6°F) 'and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C (2.7°F)'.
It seems the more ambitious goal of restricting global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) may be more important than ever, according to previous research which claims 25 per cent of the world could see a significant increase in drier conditions.
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has four main goals with regards to reducing emissions:
1) A long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels
2) To aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change
3) Governments agreed on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognising that this will take longer for developing countries