.png&w=3840&q=100)
Tropical system in the Atlantic likely has a short lifespan, forecasters say
As of Monday morning, forecasters held steady with a prediction of a 20% chance of strengthening in the next two to seven days. And, they added, those chances fall to basically zero by midweek as the system approaches an unfriendly patch of ocean.
Long-range computer models continue to show a short and unremarkable lifespan for the system, which would be named Dexter if it managed to make it to tropical storm status.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
USA Today
20 hours ago
- USA Today
Storm tracker: Disturbance east of Caribbean expected to weaken, forecasters say
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disorganized group of showers and thunderstorms east of the Caribbean, with odds of it forming into a tropical cyclone slightly decreasing on Monday, July 21. As of the center's July 21 midday report, there are showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure hundreds of miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, with a 10% chance it will form into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. The disturbance was set to move west at about 15 miles per hour, forecasters said, but conditions are expected to prevent further formation in the coming days. Chances of it strengthening into a cyclone within the next week are similarly low, forecasters say, also at about 10%. "Although the wave is still producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development during the next few days," the July 21 update said. The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. Atlantic hurricane season storm tracker How do hurricanes form? Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Prepare now for hurricanes Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Kathryn Palmer is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach her atkapalmer@ and on X @KathrynPlmr.
Miami Herald
a day ago
- Miami Herald
Saharan dust is helping limit Atlantic hurricane formation. It won't last much longer
A tropical wave rolled off the coast of Africa a few days ago and began its journey across the Atlantic. But unlike the start of many of the Atlantic basin's worst hurricane stories, this one is likely to have a short ending — thanks in part to a blast of dust from the Saharan desert. The tropical disturbance the National Hurricane Center is currently eyeing is hundreds of miles away from the Caribbean, in a stretch of ocean hurricane scientists call the main development region. In a very active hurricane season, this patch of sea can look more like a conveyor belt, turning newborn tropical disturbances into full-fledged tropical storms or hurricanes. But this system, which only had a 20% chance of strengthening on Monday morning, faces more challenging conditions. For one, there's a lot of hot, dry air that blew off the coast of Africa and surrounded the system. This is known as the Saharan Air Layer, or Saharan dust, and it is known to slow down storms from developing. 'The atmospheric conditions immediately ahead are reasonably conducive to tropical development. They would be very conducive if there weren't so much dry air nearby,' Bryan Norcross, a hurricane specialist at Fox Weather, wrote on his blog. On average, he said, Saharan dust becomes less common in late July. The peak of the hurricane season is August or September, and it's more rare to see a storm throttled by dry, dusty air. Ana Torres-Vazquez, a meteorologist at the Miami office of the National Weather Service, said Saharan dust is just one of multiple factors that can slow down a would-be storm. Sometimes, some of that dust can make it across the entire ocean and end up near Florida, where it can cause brilliant sunsets and aggravate people's lung conditions. Torres-Vazquez said current weather models show a smaller portion of that dust may reach South Florida by the end of the week or early weekend. 'If the weather conditions currently in place hold, some of the remnants of that dust could reach our area, maybe by the late work week,' she said. 'The entirety of that air mass wouldn't make it that far.'
Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center watching stormy area in Atlantic, Florida under heat advisory
The odds of an area of disorganized weather developing in the Atlantic increased slightly moving into July 21, but forecasters say environmental conditions will slow any further development by midweek. Floridians should probably worry more about the heat dome threatening to break heat records across the South. "Environmental conditions are marginally conducive, and any development should be slow to occur while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph." the National Hurricane Center said in their Tropical Weather Outlook, which currently gives the area a 20% chance of development over the next week. The NHC is also tracking two tropical waves in the Caribbean. ➤Florida flips from watching tropics to trying to stay cool. Heat advisory issued ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter. Historically, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives Aug. 15. The last two named storms of the season — Barry and Chantal — developed earlier than normal. Heat index alert: Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida Meanwhile the blazing heat continues in the Sunshine State, with an expanding heat dome spreading across the Deep South to the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, National Weather Service forecasters said. As of July 21, the entire state is under a heat advisory and roughly two-thirds of Florida from the Panhandle down into Central and Southwest regions may be facing major heat risks. There's a heat advisory for North Florida and the Panhandle (and parts of southeast Alabama and southern Georgia) running from 11 a.m. ET through 7 p.m. with heat index values up to 112 expected. Advisories for Central, Southwest and South Florida are scheduled for noon through 6 p.m., with heat index values up to 112 possible. Be careful going outside If you have to, and stay hydrated. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 21: NOAA Hurricane Center tracks tropical disturbance in Atlantic A tropical wave is located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure located about 900 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles have increased some during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are generally favorable for some additional development over the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By the middle of this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, 20 percent Formation chance through 7 days: Low, 20 percent What do the colored, hatched areas on the NOAA map mean? The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. Florida weather radar for July 21, 2025 National Weather Service Florida forecast for July 21 : A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 105. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 3 p.m. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Heat index values as high as 110. Northwest wind around 5 mph. : Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 107. West wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. : Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2 p m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 108. West wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. : A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Heat index values as high as 100. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. : A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 4 p.m and 5 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 108. Light and variable wind becoming west northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. ➤ How to set up emergency cellphone notifications for flash flood warnings and safety tips ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast What else is happening in the tropics? The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves. Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W from 05N to 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm w of the wave axis from 10N to 12N and within 150 nm east of the wave axis from 12N to 14N. Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 03N to 17N, part of the area of disturbance mentioned above. Environmental conditions are generally favorable for some additional development of this system over the next day or so while it moves west- northwestward, however, by the middle of this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. AccuWeather said there's also a potential for tropical development off the central coast of the U.S. July 22-25. 2025 hurricane season so far An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages: Tropical Storm Andrea: formed June 24. Average start date: June 20 Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17 Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3. Next up, Dexter: Average state date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11. Hurricane names for 2025 season Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea (June 24) Barry (June 29) Chantal (July 5) Dexter: DEHK-ster Erin: AIR-rin Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee When is the Atlantic hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. When is the peak of hurricane season? National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Why does NHC say 'tropical cyclone' on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm? Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Center increases chances storm development
