Latest news with #NationalHurricaneCenter
Reuters
8 hours ago
- Climate
- Reuters
NHC sees 40% chance of cyclone for system over Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche
June 28 (Reuters) - A low pressure area over the southwestern Yucatan Peninsula has a 40% chance of developing into a cyclone and is emerging over the Bay of Campeche, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Saturday. "By Monday, this system should move inland over eastern Mexico, ending its chances of development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few days," according to the NHC's latest advisory.
Daily Mail
16 hours ago
- Climate
- Daily Mail
60m Americans at risk as major safety system is cut ahead of hurricane season
Millions of Americans now face greater danger this hurricane season after the Pentagon abruptly shut down a key program that delivers crucial storm data. As of June 30, the federal government will no longer process or share data from three weather satellites that predict hurricanes 10 to 12 hours before forming. Experts are concerned that the loss of satellite data could impact every storm approaching the US East Coast and Gulf Coast regions, where more than 60 million Americans live and rely on accurate, timely hurricane forecasts. The loss could lead to delayed storm warnings, less accurate hurricane models, and reduced evacuation time for people. James Franklin, retired National Hurricane Center branch chief, told NewsNation: 'There are going to be cases this year when certain warnings are delayed because of this. 'It might mean that evacuations get delayed because of this, and you could lose lives because of this.' In May, officials released a forecast for 2025, predicting a 70 percent chance of an above-average hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms. Of those, six to 10 could become hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher. Last year, around 400 people died during the hurricane season, the deadliest since 2005, according to the National Hurricane Center. Meteorologists at AccuWeather expect as many as six major storms could make direct landfall in the US this summer. That would be the same number of storms that caused the damage of $500 million last year, when Hurricanes Helene and Milton were the most destructive. The satellites provided microwave data that allowed scientists to see inside storms and monitor wind and rain patterns, even through clouds and darkness. Without it, forecasters could miss six to ten hours of early warning. Experts say without the satellite data, forecasters may not detect signs that a storm is rapidly strengthening until it's too late, a risk meteorologists call a 'sunrise surprise.' These storms appear mild at night but suddenly become stronger and more dangerous by morning. 'This is a major setback,' said Marc Alessi, a hurricane expert with the Union of Concerned Scientists. 'We will no longer be able to say, OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that.' The data stream was officially terminated on June 27, typically before the beginning of peak hurricane activity in July, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A NOAA spokesperson said the agency is using other satellites and tools to continue forecasting storms, calling it a 'routine process of data rotation and replacement.' But former officials say the move was unusually abrupt and poorly communicated. 'I've never seen anything like this,' said Rick Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator. 'It's shocking.' The shutdown raises deeper concerns about the Pentagon's commitment to weather forecasting and climate science. The White House has proposed a nearly 40 percent cut to NOAA's 2026 budget, cutting more than $2 million in funding. The Trump administration's second term has also moved to reduce staff and eliminate contracts related to disaster preparedness and climate research. In 2024, NOAA produced some of its accurate forecasts ever for hurricanes Milton and Helene, predicting rapid intensification and landfall with almost perfect precision. Scientists say the level of accuracy depended on having fully funded satellites and data systems that have now been dismantled. 'This is alarmingly bad news,' said University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy.
Scientific American
17 hours ago
- Climate
- Scientific American
Hurricane Forecasters Lose Crucial Satellite Data, with Serious Implications
On television broadcasts and forecast maps, hurricanes appear as two-dimensional swirling vortices, belying their extremely complex three-dimensional structure. Being able to peer past the tops of clouds to see what's happening inside a storm is critical for forecasting—particularly for catching one that is about to rapidly intensify into something more dangerous. But a key source of data that provide an x-ray-like view of that structure will shut down by June 30, just before hurricane season tends to kick into high gear. 'It's certainly one of the more important data sources that we have because it provides a unique dataset,' says James Franklin, former chief of the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) Hurricane Specialist Unit. 'It's the only way really to see through clouds and get a sense of the organizational structure of the core of a developing cyclone.' Having that information can alert forecasters to rapid intensification or other major changes hours before they become apparent in other data—providing crucial time to warn people in harm's way. This view into storm structure comes from sensors onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. Those data will no longer be taken up, processed and sent out to the National Hurricane Center or other non-Department of Defense users. The exact reasons for the shutoff are unclear but appear to be related to security concerns. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. 'The timing [of the shutdown] could not be worse as far as hurricane season is concerned,' and it comes along with other recent cuts and limitations to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says Kim Wood, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Arizona. What do microwave data tell us about hurricanes? Satellites orbiting the Earth gather data in multiple wavelengths of light: visible, infrared, microwave, and so on. Each provides different kinds of information. Most people typically see images of hurricanes in the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum, but the storms also emit microwaves. 'Everything is emitting microwaves,' Wood says. 'We're currently emitting microwaves sitting here. And it's because our temperatures are above absolute zero.' Microwaves are useful in monitoring hurricanes, Wood says, 'because the waves are so long they get through the tops of the clouds.' This lets forecasters see a storm's inner workings—particularly changes to its eye and eye wall (the circle of clouds that surround the eye and make up the strongest part of the storm). Such changes can indicate if a hurricane is strengthening or weakening. This is a particularly useful tool for monitoring storms at night, when visible satellite imagery is unavailable. Though infrared data are available at night, microwave data have 16 times their resolution, Wood says. Being able to watch a storm overnight can help avoid what Franklin calls a 'sunrise surprise'—when forecasters get the first visible imagery at daylight and find that the storm has become much stronger or better organized than they had expected. Microwave imagery is particularly useful for catching rapid intensification—defined as when a storm's winds jump by at least 35 miles per hour in 24 hours. Forecasters using microwave data can catch the process and warn people faster than they could otherwise. This was the case with Hurricane Otis in 2023, which was the first known Category 5 Pacific hurricane ever to make landfall and caused significant devastation. Microwave 'satellite imagery clued us in to the potential for this system to be really strong,' Wood says. Microwave data are also extremely useful in locating the center of weaker storms. These storms tend to lack a central eye and eye wall, and clouds higher in the atmosphere can obscure where those located lower down are circulating in visible imagery. Knowing where the center of the storm lies is important information to feed into hurricane models that forecast where the storm will go. Feeding microwave data into models can improve the accuracy with which they determine the position of the center of a storm by about 60 miles, Franklin says—noting that an incorrect position is 'going to cascade or leak into your track forecast.' This means that meteorologists who lack microwave imagery may not be able to forecast where a storm will make landfall as accurately as those who have it. Where do microwave data come from, and why were they cut? Because the microwaves emitted from Earth's surface and atmosphere are very weak, they can only be detected by satellites in very low-Earth orbit, Wood says. (The geostationary satellites that provide visible imagery orbit farther out. To have a sensor big enough to detect microwaves from their position, they would need to be the size of the Death Star, Wood says.) But because those microwave-detecting satellites orbit so close to Earth, they see less of it at any given time than geostationary satellites do—so more of them are needed to adequately monitor the planet. And there are longer time gaps between when a microwave-detecting satellite 'revisits' the same spot. That means microwave data are already limited. There are currently six satellites providing that information for U.S. weather forecasting purposes, and they are only useful for hurricanes if they serendipitously pass overhead at the right time. But now three of them are about to be turned off. 'That's a big drop in the availability of this tool,' Franklin says. The data that are about to be lost come from what are called Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) sensors onboard three DMSP satellites. The exact reason for the shutoff is unclear, though some reports have cited security concerns. It does not appear that the concerns are with sharing the data themselves or with funding the collection and dissemination of that information. In an e-mail to Scientific American, a spokesperson for the U.S. Space Force wrote that 'DMSP satellites and instruments are still functional' and that DOD users will continue to receive the data. They referred further questions about the decision to the U.S. Navy, which had not replied to requests for comment by press time. In an e-mail to Scientific American, Maria Torres, a spokesperson for the NHC, wrote that "the DMSP is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.' She cited other satellites, ocean buoys and the Hurricane Hunter flights, among other tools. 'NOAA's data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve,' Torres wrote. There are other satellites that could theoretically provide microwave data—including a recently launched DOD satellite—but there has been no discussion of making those data broadly accessible, Wood says. And because forecasting models and other systems are geared toward the existing data, it is not simple to use a new data source as a substitute. 'It's one thing for a satellite to exist,' Woods say. 'It's another thing for us to be able to access it.' What we can expect this hurricane season The loss of these data is most concerning when it comes to storms that are relatively far out in the ocean (beyond the range of Hurricane Hunter aircraft) and to storms in the Pacific Ocean, where fewer such missions are flown. There are typically more monitoring flights for storms that are a threat to the U.S., particularly as they get close to land. But two thirds of all hurricane advisories are issued based solely on satellite data, Franklin says. The loss of these data alone would be extremely concerning for forecast accuracy this hurricane season—but it comes on top of the broader cuts that have already been made to the National Weather Service and NOAA. For example, there may be fewer launches of the weather balloons that help illuminate how the larger atmospheric environment will steer a storm. And it is unclear if Hurricane Hunter flights might be affected. 'Losing this data is worse than it might have been a year ago,' Wood says. 'It's pretty much guaranteed that there will be some forecast this year where significant intensification, most likely of a tropical storm [to a hurricane], is missed by six to 12 hours because these data weren't available,' Franklin says. If it is a Pacific Coast storm, this could be devastating for communities in the way. And even if it is out at sea, it is a big concern for mariners. 'Ships go down in hurricanes,' Franklin says. All in all, 'there are a lot of things that are working against forecasting' this year, he says.
Yahoo
18 hours ago
- Climate
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center monitors multiple systems ahead of possible tropical increase
A tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean popped up Thursday night and is showing a low chance for development over the next few days. Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location There's been only one named storm in the Atlantic basin so far this season but forecasters are keeping an eye on areas close to the U.S. showing some potential for development as we get close to the Fourth of July weekend. The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Barry. Keep an umbrella handy today. Showers and thunderstorms are predicted across most of Florida Friday, June 27, according to the National Weather Service. Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m., June 27. A broad area of low pressure has formed over the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. Some additional development is possible over the next few days when the system moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. By early next week this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of additional development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. Formation chance through 48 hours: 20 percent. Formation chance through seven days: 30 percent. Tropical waves Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 15N southward, and moving west around 11 mph. Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward, and moving west around 11 mph. Tropical wave 3: A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 16N southward across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving west at 11 mph. Tropical wave 4: Another tropical wave is along 90W from the northern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Guatemala and El Salvador into the East Pacific. It is moving west at around 6 mph. The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. There's no tropical system threatening Florida at this time. However, AccuWeather forecasters are warning there is a potential for tropical development in the Gulf or off the southeast coast of the U.S. in early July, the holiday weekend. 'The potential is definitely there off the Southeast Coast or in the Gulf," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email. "The water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development in that area and the wind shear looks to be fairly low overall in that area.' 'We're forecasting a low chance that anything develops at this point, but this time of the year, this is where we would typically see tropical activity spin up in late June and early July, If anything develops over the next two weeks, it will happen close to home. "There's nothing unusual here. We would typically look close to home for possible tropical development early in the season. If anything develops, it's likely that rainfall would be the primary concern. 'A cold front during the first couple of days of July will come off the southeast coast and stall. The tail of the front will essentially extend across Florida and into the Gulf. If that frontal boundary stalls for a couple of days and we see any convection, that's how we could end up with tropical development next week." 'We expect tropical activity to pick up later on in the hurricane season. This very well could be a back-half loaded season," DaSilva said. Right now, dry air and wind shear are helping keep tropical storms from developing, which isn't unusual for early in the hurricane season, which started June 1. "The second named storm in the Atlantic basin typically doesn't develop until mid to late July. We are on pace with the historical average. Records show that the first hurricane of the season typically doesn't develop until Aug. 11," DaSilva said. Predictions issued by NOAA, AccuWeather and Colorado State University all forecast an above-normal hurricane season. "We're forecasting a wet pattern across the Southeast in early July, regardless of any tropical development," DaSilva said. 'Much of Florida and the Southeast will see plenty of showers and thunderstorms during early July, and that could impact outdoor plans for the Fourth of July. 'Northern Florida and the Panhandle will see more rainfall than South Florida in early July.' 'There is a big plume of dust coming across the Atlantic right now. We expect more Saharan dust to reach portions of the southern U.S. from South Florida to Texas. 'We could have some Saharan dust high in the sky for the Fourth of July, especially across South Florida.' 'We could see some dirty rain across Florida that can make a mess on your car and other surfaces outside, thanks to the Saharan dust.' Florida weather forecast for June 27, 2025 Pensacola, western Panhandle: Early start to the morning with showers and storms already firing up along the coastline and out over the Gulf this morning. High near 87. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Showers and thunderstorms likely today, with high near 92. Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Thunderstorm chances Increasing this afternoon and few severe storms are possible. Expect storms to develop along the sea breezes and northward from central Florida during the afternoon hours. The main threat with storms will be strong wind gusts. High near 91. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Plenty of thunderstorms expected this afternoon-evening from increasing moisture and a sea breeze collision near the Orlando metro area. Strong storms are possible and there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the state. Temperatures expected to range from 88 in Daytona Beach to 87 in Stuart. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Quiet across South Florida this morning with the exception of a thunderstorm with plenty of lightning just offshore of Naples. Scattered storms and showers pick up in coverage this afternoon. Naples high near 90; West Palm Beach high near 84. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Interior portions of the forecast area are under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today with a threat of damaging wind gusts, hail 1inches in diameter or greater and locally heavy rainfall. Fort Myers high near 92 with heat index as high as 99; Sarasota high near 87. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add a gallery and new information. This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: National Hurricane Center monitors multiple systems ahead of possible tropical increase
Al Arabiya
20 hours ago
- Science
- Al Arabiya
The government cuts key data used in hurricane forecasting, and experts sound an alarm
Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cutoff of key data from US Department of Defense satellites–the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it would discontinue the ingest, processing, and distribution of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department. The data is used by scientists, researchers, and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center. It wasn't immediately clear why the government planned to cut off the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's microwave data by Monday. The Defense Department referred questions to the Air Force, which referred them to the Navy, which did not immediately provide comment. NOAA did not immediately respond to a message. Unlike traditional weather satellites, the microwave data helps peer under a regular image of a hurricane or a tropical cyclone to see what is going on inside the storm, and it is especially helpful at night. The news is especially noteworthy during the ongoing hurricane season and as lesser storms have become more frequent, deadly, and costly as climate change is worsened by the burning of fossil fuels. Microwave imagery allows researchers and forecasters to see the center of the storm. Experts say that can help in detecting the rapid intensification of storms and in more accurately plotting the likely path of dangerous weather. 'If a hurricane, let's say, is approaching the Gulf Coast, it's a day away from making landfall, it's nighttime,' said Union of Concerned Scientists science fellow Marc Alessi. 'We will no longer be able to say, 'OK, this storm is definitely undergoing rapid intensification, we need to update our forecasts to reflect that.' Other microwave data will be available, but only roughly fifty percent as much, hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said in a blog post. He said that greatly increases the odds that forecasters will miss rapid intensification, underestimate intensity, or misplace the storm. 'That will severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond, affecting tens of millions of Americans who live along its hurricane-prone shorelines,' he said. University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy called the loss of data 'alarmingly bad news' in a post on Bluesky. 'Microwave data are already relatively sparse, so any loss–even gradual as satellites or instruments fail–is a big deal, but to abruptly end three active, functioning satellites is insanity.' NOAA and its National Weather Service office have been the target of several cuts and changes in President Donald Trump's second term. The Department of Government Efficiency gutted the agency's workforce, local field offices, and funding. Already, hurricane forecasts were anticipated to be less accurate this year because weather balloon launches have been curtailed because of the lack of staffing. 'What happened this week is another attempt by the Trump administration to sabotage our weather and climate infrastructure,' Alessi said.
