Middle East flares may weigh down markets
For the week, the BSE Sensex index added 1,289.57 points or 1.58 per cent to finish at 82,408.17, and on the NSE, the Nifty gained 393.8 points or 1.59 per cent to end at 25,112.40. Broader markets underperformed benchmark indices, the BSE Mid-cap Index was down 0.4 per cent and the BSE Small-cap index shed nearly 2 per cent. Sector wise, Nifty Private Bank index rose 1.6 per cent, Nifty Auto index added 1.5 per cent, Nifty Information Technology index rose 1.3 per cent. However, Nifty Media index shed 3 per cent and Nifty Pharma index fell 1.7 per cent, Nifty Metal and PSU Bank indices shed 1.3 per cent each.
FIIs snapped four week selling with purchases of equities worth Rs 8,709.60 crore in current week. DIIs continued their buying for ninth straight week with purchases of equities worth Rs 12,635.58 crore. Domestic factors such as a decline in India's wholesale inflation and the RBI's relaxation of lending norms supported the market's upward momentum amid Middle East concerns. The rupee witnessed a sharp fall last week. The fall to 86.60 on the Indian rupee (86.59) has happened much faster than expected. Rise in crude oil prices on the back of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is weighing on the domestic currency.
The US Federal Reserve meeting last week largely turned out to be a non-event for the markets. The Fed kept the rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5 per cent. It also retained its forecast for another 50-basis points rate cuts for the rest of the year. However, the central bank had revised its inflation forecast higher. The higher revision has been attributed to the uncertainty prevailing over the impacts of higher tariffs. Weekend factors like US B-2 Bombers making incursions into Iran and with Israel and Iran continuing to exchange missile strikes will cast shadow on markets when markets open in the coming week.
Looking ahead, traders may brace for heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Iran has launched a retaliatory wave of missiles toward Israel, hours after U.S. airstrikes targeted its nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan; and Iran's foreign minister stated that Tehran is willing to consider diplomacy only once Israel halts its aggression. Watch carefully the developments because of its impact on international crude oil prices.
IPO Corner: After a long time, the primary market is going to see some intense action in a 'energetic week' with 13 (IPOs) hitting the D-Street. The companies will be raising nearly Rs 16,000 crore during the week, with five mainboard public issues up for grabs. The positive broader picture of the equity market, despite near-term concerns led by the Middle East and tariff-driven volatility, appears to be the reason for strong primary market action.
Mumbai-based real estate developer Kalpataru is slated to raise Rs 1,590 crore via IPO. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 387 to Rs 414.
New Delhi-headquartered EPC company Globe Civil Projects plans to garner Rs 119 crore through IPO. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 67 to Rs 71.
Industrial gases provider Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases plans to mop up Rs 852.53 crore via the public issue. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 380 to Rs 400.
Electric resistance welded steel pipes and structural tubes maker Sambhv Steel Tubes plans to raise up to Rs 540 crore. However, the biggest public issue of the current year will be from HDB Financial Services with a size of Rs 12,500 crore. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 700 to Rs 740. This remains the most anticipated issue among the pack.
The SME segment will also see top action with 7 IPOs opening for subscription. Reports indicate that Tata Capital is closing in on a blockbuster Rs 17,200 crore IPO, after receiving regulatory clearance for its confidential draft prospectus. Expect some shift in fund flows from both retail investors and institutions from secondary market to IPO segment. The fresh wave of equity supply via initial public offerings (IPOs) can be a key risk to Indian stock market.
If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting.
FUTURES & OPTIONS / SECTOR WATCH
With the broader indices Nifty and Bank Nifty locked in a tight range, derivative segment witnessed mild bouts of alternate buying and selling in stock futures. Despite ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, indices ended the week on a positive note. In the options market, prominent Call open interest for Nifty was seen at the 25,500 and 25,300 strike, while the notable Put open interest was at the 25,000 and 24,800 strike. For Bank Nifty, the prominent Call open interest was seen at the 57,000 and 56,500 strikes, whereas notable Put open interest was at the 56,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 13.51%, while Put options concluded at 14.06%. The India VIX, a key market volatility indicator, closed the week at 14.26%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) for the week was 1.06. Nifty is currently trading near its resistance level of 25,200. A breakout above this level could lead to a further move towards 25,500. On the downside, immediate support is placed at the psychological level of 25,000, followed by strong support at 24,800. As long as Nifty holds above 24,800, the market can be considered a buy-on-dips. Watch out for breakout attempts near resistance and potential reversal signs around the key levels. As always, manage risk with discipline and stay anchored to price confirmation. Stocks looking good are Ashok Leyland, BEL, Bharti Airtel, Indus Towers, Trent, Kaynes and Wipro. Stocks looking weak are ATGL, Bluestar, RVNL, Shree Cements, Tata Chemicals, Unominda and Voltas.
(The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice- chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
29 minutes ago
- Time of India
Textiles exporters face fresh trade uncertainty amid Trump's latest announcements
NEW DELHI: US President 's latest tariff announcements have resulted in fresh uncertainty, with buyers expected to go slow on new orders. While textiles exporters seem to have got an advantage over Bangladesh, which has been slapped with 35% duty by Trump, industry is keeping close tabs on India's bilateral trade deal with the US as the American president has claimed the agreement with Vietnam allows him to impose a 20% tariff, although there may be product-specific concessions. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now In any case, the final word is not out on where tariffs settle in the coming weeks, with countries, including Bangladesh, once again rushing to Washington to rebalance the equations. "We need to watch how tariffs move. Buyers are a little confused at the moment," said V Elangovan, managing director of Tirupur-based SNQS International. What is adding to the complications is China. "Retailers have to fill their shelves. Last week, our merchandisers were in Shanghai, we could not compete because the Chinese were quoting better prices this year than last year. It is not clear how they can do so when the tariff for them is higher. We need more hand-holding from govt," he added. Govt and industry has been pushing for zero duty for garments and home textiles, where Indian products are competitive, although it is unlikely even if a trade deal is worked out as the Trump administration has refused to remove the 10% baseline tariff applicable on all countries. At 10%, Indian exporters are seen to be better off than rivals, provided subsidies are not doled out to Chinese manufacturers. In natural garments, where India has traditional strength, the cost disadvantage is relatively small, 3-4%. However, in synthetic garments, the gap widens to 10-11% due to higher production costs, Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC) said. "India, even with the existing reciprocal tariff rate (26% announced in April), will gain in export competitiveness vis-a-vis major garment exporting competing countries. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now Besides, we are quite hopeful of India striking a favourable trade deal which will further improve the competitiveness of India's apparel exports in all important US market... even a moderate reduction in the reciprocal tariff to around 15% could significantly improve our competitiveness across both natural and synthetic garment categories, thereby opening infinite export possibilities for India amid shifting global sourcing trends," said AEPC CEO Mithileshwar Thakur. With current tariff levels - India at 26%, Vietnam at 20%, and Bangladesh at 35% - India is seen to be competitive against Bangladesh in natural garments but faces pressure in the synthetics segment. "It is looking good for us and a trade deal will help," said K M Subramani, president of Tirupur Exporters' Association. The big question is the ability of Indian garment makers to manufacture on a scale, especially given their reluctance to invest in capacity addition.
&w=3840&q=100)
India.com
32 minutes ago
- India.com
Dollar Dominance, Trade Risks & Delhi's Balancing Act – Why Trump's BRICS Threats Matter For India
New Delhi: At a time when India inches closer to finalising a trade deal with the United States, a thunderclap from Washington has cast shadows over the celebration. US President Donald Trump's blunt message, posted publicly this week, warned that any country aligning with what he described as BRICS' 'anti-American policies' would face an additional 10% tariff without exceptions. As one of the founding members of BRICS, India finds itself at the centre of this growing storm. The recently concluded Rio de Janeiro summit of the bloc had laid out an ambitious declaration. There was no mention of the United States, but it still sent ripples through Washington. The BRICS statement challenged unilateral economic measures, defended multilateralism, voiced concern over tariffs that disrupt global trade and pushed for changes to global governance. These words appear to have stung. What followed was Trump's retaliation. On his Truth Social platform, he wrote that siding with BRICS' economic vision would come at a cost. The timing could not have been more crucial. He is expected to begin announcing trade deals from Monday, and India is among the countries on the list. In Delhi, this new tension is being watched with a mix of caution and calculation. Trade experts in the capital believe the core of Trump's anger lies deeper within the BRICS push for currency alternatives. For years, Russia and China have spoken of a new financial system to bypass the dollar. In 2022, Russia even floated a proposal for a BRICS reserve currency. Many Indian analysts suspect this is what triggered Trump's fury. The dollar remains Washington's most powerful economic weapon. The United States used it in 2012 to isolate Iran and again in 2022 against Russia. Any attempt to weaken its grip invites blowback. Despite its lack of political cohesion, BRICS still threatens that power by raising the idea of currency diversification. Indian economists see the bigger picture. The call for a common BRICS currency faces hurdles. Political will is scattered. China's dominance in the bloc sparks unease among other members. But the conversations alone unsettle Washington. That is why even vague references to multilateral financial systems draw fire. Meanwhile, India, experts are of the view, must walk a fine line. It is preparing for what is being described as a 'mini trade deal' with the United States. Reports suggest Delhi has already agreed to a baseline 10% tariff, but higher rates – up to 26% – remain on the table. Agriculture and dairy continue to be sticking points. At the same time, India cannot ignore its standing in BRICS. It shares that space with strategic rivals like China but also long-standing defence and energy partners like Russia. The bloc includes emerging economies looking for new trade paths. Turning away completely would be costly. Domestic industry lobbies in India are growing nervous. Sectors like textiles, pharma and information technology could suffer if Trump hikes tariffs further. Executives fear the fallout of a new wave of American protectionism. What adds to the anxiety is the unpredictability. Trump has changed course before. His sudden termination of a long-standing free trade pact with Vietnam has become a cautionary tale. Despite the tensions, some foreign policy voices in Delhi urge calm. They argue that BRICS has always been an idea more than an institution. Its members rarely share political agendas or geographical interests. But that has not stopped it from becoming a target. Others believe Trump's aggressive approach may backfire. His posture could push India to double down on groups such as BRICS and the Global South. But that path brings its own dilemmas, especially with China pulling the strings in many of these platforms. At the heart of it all, the challenge remains the same – can India navigate between its old allies and emerging coalitions without inviting punishment from either? With Trump's new tariffs looming, the question is no longer hypothetical. The countdown has begun.
Deccan Herald
33 minutes ago
- Deccan Herald
Lorry owners withdraw stir after Karnataka govt promises payment
Of the Rs 244.1 crore that the government has decided to disburse, Rs 180.63 crore will be allocated from general category quota, while Rs 43.93 crore will be sourced from Scheduled Caste Sub-Plan (SCSP), and Rs 19.52 crore from Scheduled Tribe Sub-Plan (STSP).
