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Hans India
2 days ago
- Business
- Hans India
Earnings season, trade talks to drive indices
Underthe shadow of mixed global cues and the impending US tariff deadline; renewed selling from FIIs and profit booking at higher levels led to modest decline in the benchmark indices. For the week ended, the Sensex shed 626.01 points or 0.74 per cent to close at 83,432.89, and the Nifty fell 176.8 points or 0.68 per cent to end at 25,461. Broader markets were mildly better with the BSE Mid-cap Index adding 0.6 per cent and the BSE Small-cap index rising 1 per cent. Investors were seen adopting a wait-and-watch approach. FIIs sold equities worth Rs 6,604.56 crore. On the other hand, DIIs continued their buying in 11th consecutive week with purchases worth Rs 7,609.42 crore. FIIs have turned cautious amid elevated market valuations and mixed global cues. However, DII fund managers say India's market momentum is 'structural, not cyclical,' driven by long-term factors such as political stability, rising domestic consumption, favorable demographics, and stable inflation. The Indian rupee extended the gains for the second week ending marginally higher at 85.39 per dollar. OPEC which produces about half of the world's oil, has reversed its earlier stance this year by agreeing to increase output and expand its market share. The additional production is expected to prevent any sharp spike in oil prices. The trajectory of crude oil prices remains critical to the global inflation outlook and for large importers like India. SEBI order barring US-based Jane Street Group from participating in the Indian stock market and ordering it to disgorge unlawful gains of Rs4,843 crore for allegedly manipulating stock indices through derivative positions; likely to have repercussions on the way F&O markets operate in coming days. manipulating index levels in the stock market to earn illegal profits, primarily through the highly liquid Bank Nifty and Nifty index options segments. According to securities lawyers, Sebi's interim order has all characteristics of a final order as it came after detailed investigations. On whether Jane Street's strategies constituted market manipulation, some observers say taking large positions in cash and option segments is merely a strategy and could not be termed as manipulative. People with deeper pockets will always be in a position to manipulate. Such orders intervene with the free spirit of the market in a disclosure-based regime like India. The discretion to trade after disclosure should be left with the individual investor. In the near term, direction of the market will be dictated by the outcome from the US-India trade negotiations and Q1 results. With no word still on India-US trade deal and the US President Donald Trump stating that he is not considering an extension and saying that US has begun process of sending letters regarding reciprocal tariffs to 12 countries has added 'suspense' to trading environment for coming days. With Union Commerce Minister stating that India will negotiate from a position of strength and not under deadlines; observers feel that the interim deal will involve only goods and a decision on services and labor issues will be taken later. Investors in trade-sensitive sectors such as IT, pharma, and Auto need to closely track developments as the deadline for the pause on Trump-era tariffs ends on Wednesday, July 9. The Q1 earnings season kicks off this week with 42 BSE-listed companies set to announce their April–June quarter results. IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Avenue Supermarts (DMart), Anand Rathi Wealth, and Tata Elxsi are among the key names to watch in coming week. If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting. FUTURES & OPTIONS / SECTOR WATCH Derivative market remained cautious due to uncertainty around the India–US trade deal and the SEBI order on Jane Street. Largely range-bound, stock specific moves were observed. Both the Nifty and the Bank Nifty ended the week with small losses of about 0.70 per cent. In the options market, prominent Call open interest for the Nifty was seen at the 25,500 and 25,700 strike, while the notable Put open interest was at the 25,000 and 25,400 strike. For the Bank Nifty, the prominent Call open interest was seen at the 57,000 and 57,500 strikes, whereas notable Put open interest was at the 56,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 11.67 per cent, while Put options concluded at 12.27 per cent. The India VIX, a key market volatility indicator, closed the week at 12.39 per cent. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) for the week was 1.19. Techies identify 25,300 as key support for the Nifty. As long as the index remains above this level, bullish sentiment is expected to persist, with the potential for a swift rebound. On the higher side, the index could advance towards 25,800–26,100 in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 25,500, and a breakout above this level could further strengthen the upward momentum. If the Nifty slips below 25,300 that, it could head toward 24,800. As long as the indices stay above these levels, the market is likely to remain in a 'buy on dips' mode. Nifty futures saw rollover around 25,200–25,300, while for the Bank Nifty, it was in the 56,600–56,700 range. With the start of the Q1 earnings season, focus will be on stock specific action. Track the management commentary of TCS because it will be the first 'biggie' to announce results and give an inkling on the ongoing tariff turmoil. Stocks looking good are Aurobindo Pharma, Biocon, BDL, Hero Motocorp, HAL, JSW Steel, JIO Financial and Fortis Health. Stocks looking weak are Cholamandalam Finance, CG Power Jindal Steel, Nykaa, RVNL, TI India and PFC. (The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice-chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)
Hans India
23-06-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Middle East flares may weigh down markets
Pumped up by US President Trump's statement about decision of US direct involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict in next two weeks, the strong rally on Friday helped market erase previous few sessions losses to close on optimism. For the week, the BSE Sensex index added 1,289.57 points or 1.58 per cent to finish at 82,408.17, and on the NSE, the Nifty gained 393.8 points or 1.59 per cent to end at 25,112.40. Broader markets underperformed benchmark indices, the BSE Mid-cap Index was down 0.4 per cent and the BSE Small-cap index shed nearly 2 per cent. Sector wise, Nifty Private Bank index rose 1.6 per cent, Nifty Auto index added 1.5 per cent, Nifty Information Technology index rose 1.3 per cent. However, Nifty Media index shed 3 per cent and Nifty Pharma index fell 1.7 per cent, Nifty Metal and PSU Bank indices shed 1.3 per cent each. FIIs snapped four week selling with purchases of equities worth Rs 8,709.60 crore in current week. DIIs continued their buying for ninth straight week with purchases of equities worth Rs 12,635.58 crore. Domestic factors such as a decline in India's wholesale inflation and the RBI's relaxation of lending norms supported the market's upward momentum amid Middle East concerns. The rupee witnessed a sharp fall last week. The fall to 86.60 on the Indian rupee (86.59) has happened much faster than expected. Rise in crude oil prices on the back of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is weighing on the domestic currency. The US Federal Reserve meeting last week largely turned out to be a non-event for the markets. The Fed kept the rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5 per cent. It also retained its forecast for another 50-basis points rate cuts for the rest of the year. However, the central bank had revised its inflation forecast higher. The higher revision has been attributed to the uncertainty prevailing over the impacts of higher tariffs. Weekend factors like US B-2 Bombers making incursions into Iran and with Israel and Iran continuing to exchange missile strikes will cast shadow on markets when markets open in the coming week. Looking ahead, traders may brace for heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Iran has launched a retaliatory wave of missiles toward Israel, hours after U.S. airstrikes targeted its nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan; and Iran's foreign minister stated that Tehran is willing to consider diplomacy only once Israel halts its aggression. Watch carefully the developments because of its impact on international crude oil prices. IPO Corner: After a long time, the primary market is going to see some intense action in a 'energetic week' with 13 (IPOs) hitting the D-Street. The companies will be raising nearly Rs 16,000 crore during the week, with five mainboard public issues up for grabs. The positive broader picture of the equity market, despite near-term concerns led by the Middle East and tariff-driven volatility, appears to be the reason for strong primary market action. Mumbai-based real estate developer Kalpataru is slated to raise Rs 1,590 crore via IPO. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 387 to Rs 414. New Delhi-headquartered EPC company Globe Civil Projects plans to garner Rs 119 crore through IPO. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 67 to Rs 71. Industrial gases provider Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases plans to mop up Rs 852.53 crore via the public issue. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 380 to Rs 400. Electric resistance welded steel pipes and structural tubes maker Sambhv Steel Tubes plans to raise up to Rs 540 crore. However, the biggest public issue of the current year will be from HDB Financial Services with a size of Rs 12,500 crore. The IPO price band has been set at Rs 700 to Rs 740. This remains the most anticipated issue among the pack. The SME segment will also see top action with 7 IPOs opening for subscription. Reports indicate that Tata Capital is closing in on a blockbuster Rs 17,200 crore IPO, after receiving regulatory clearance for its confidential draft prospectus. Expect some shift in fund flows from both retail investors and institutions from secondary market to IPO segment. The fresh wave of equity supply via initial public offerings (IPOs) can be a key risk to Indian stock market. If you think investing is gambling, you're doing it wrong. The work involved requires planning and patience. However, the gains you see over time are indeed exciting. FUTURES & OPTIONS / SECTOR WATCH With the broader indices Nifty and Bank Nifty locked in a tight range, derivative segment witnessed mild bouts of alternate buying and selling in stock futures. Despite ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, indices ended the week on a positive note. In the options market, prominent Call open interest for Nifty was seen at the 25,500 and 25,300 strike, while the notable Put open interest was at the 25,000 and 24,800 strike. For Bank Nifty, the prominent Call open interest was seen at the 57,000 and 56,500 strikes, whereas notable Put open interest was at the 56,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 13.51%, while Put options concluded at 14.06%. The India VIX, a key market volatility indicator, closed the week at 14.26%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) for the week was 1.06. Nifty is currently trading near its resistance level of 25,200. A breakout above this level could lead to a further move towards 25,500. On the downside, immediate support is placed at the psychological level of 25,000, followed by strong support at 24,800. As long as Nifty holds above 24,800, the market can be considered a buy-on-dips. Watch out for breakout attempts near resistance and potential reversal signs around the key levels. As always, manage risk with discipline and stay anchored to price confirmation. Stocks looking good are Ashok Leyland, BEL, Bharti Airtel, Indus Towers, Trent, Kaynes and Wipro. Stocks looking weak are ATGL, Bluestar, RVNL, Shree Cements, Tata Chemicals, Unominda and Voltas. (The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice- chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)
Hans India
09-06-2025
- Business
- Hans India
RBI repo cut sparks rally; Benchmarks eye new highs
C Kutumba RaoDespite global headwinds and renewed FII selling; supported by strong DIIs buying and positive domestic GDP data and RBI cut of the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.50% and CRR by 100bps to 3%; markets closed the week ended on optimistic note. For the week, the Sensex added 737.98 points or 0.9 per cent to finish at 82,188.99, and the Nifty jumped 252.35 points or 1.01 per cent to end at 25,003.05. Broader markets outperformed the benchmark indices with both the BSE Mid-cap Index and the BSE Small-cap rising over 2 per cent. FIIs remained net sellers in the third consecutive week as they sold equities worth Rs 3,565.88 crore. On the other hand, DIIs continued their buying in the seventh consecutive week with purchases worth Rs 25,513.43 crore. The Indian rupee ended marginally lower against the US dollar as domestic currency finished at 85.63 per dollar. A dovish RBI surprised markets with a 50-basis point (bp) cut to the repo rate and a 100-bp reduction in the cash reserve ratio (CRR). This follows earlier repo rate cuts of 25 bps each in February and April. Bolstered by supportive macro indicators such as strong Q4 GDP, GST collection, and a favourable monsoon, market forecasters expect benchmark indices to cross historic highs well before Diwali. DIIs buying was focused on domestically oriented and interest-sensitive sectors such as Financials, Real Estate, Retail and FMCG. In the US markets, despite a mildly positive bias from strong US job data and expectations of easing US-China trade tensions; the big headline has been the spat or breakup between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. There are many things that could happen. Let us see how it pans out. Weakness in Tesla shares showcase vulnerability of 'politically tainted' stocks. With PM Modi accepting invite to attend the G7 Summit; and the summit expected to deliberate several key issues in the backdrop of Trump's tariff wars; it would be wise to track developments at G7 summit. Too many investors become obsessed with being right, even when the gains are small. Winning big and cutting your losses when you're wrong is more important than being right. FUTURES & OPTIONS / SECTOR WATCH Spurred by the RBI's 50 basis point rate cut, derivative segment witnessed spike in trading volumes. Nifty rose over 1%, while Bank Nifty outperformed with gains of around 1.5%. Among sectors, Realty, Capital Markets and NBFCs led the gains. In the Options segment, prominent Call open interest for the Nifty was seen at the 25,000 and 25,500 strikes, while the notable Put open interest was at the 25,000 and 24,800 strikes. For the Bank Nifty, the prominent Call open interest was seen at the 56,000 and 57,000 strikes, whereas notable Put open interest was at the 56,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 14.38%, while Put options concluded at 15.41%. The India VIX, a key market volatility indicator, closed the week at 15.08%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) for the week was 1.03. Nifty is currently positioned at the upper band of the consolidation range of 24,400–25,100. Chartists expect the Nifty to move above the upper band of the range and head higher towards the immediate resistances of 25,250 and then 25,500 in the coming weeks. Any dips should be viewed as a buying opportunity, with key short-term supports placed at 24,700 and 24,400. A Traders in stock futures would do well to track the flurry of corporate actions lined up this week, including record dates for dividends, stock splits, rights issues, and bonus shares. Close watch is warranted in the five Tata Group stocks and five Adani Group stocks that will trade ex-dividend this week. Stocks looking good are Fortis, HDFC AMC, Indian Bank, PNB Hsg, PPL Pharma, Shriram Finance, and Unominda. Stocks looking weak are Biocon, BDL, Colgate, KPIT Tech, Kaynes, Mankind and Tata Technologies. (The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice- chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)
Hans India
28-04-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Investors chary of next direction on rising uncertainty
Fuelled by hopes for a de-escalation in President Trump's tariff battle with China, plus his retreat from threats to oust Federal Reserve Chair JeromePowell, expectations of a positive outcome from US-India trade talks, persistent FII buying, mixed Q4 earnings and geopolitical tensions post-Pahalgam terror attack; the Indian equity market extended the gains for the second consecutive week. For the week, BSE Sensex index added 659.33points or 0.83 per cent to close at 79,212.53, and Nifty rose 187.7 points or 0.78 per cent to close at 24,039.35. Broader market continued to exhibit caution and both the BSE Mid-cap Index and the BSE Small-cap indexended with marginal gains during the week ended. It is pertinent to observe that in the month of April till now, both the main indices rose more than two per cent each. Among sectors, the Nifty Information Technology index rose 6.5 per cent, the Nifty Auto index added 3 per cent, Nifty Realty and Pharma indices rose 1.6 per cent each. The FIIs extended their buying in the second week with purchases worth Rs17,796.39 crore, while DIIs bought equities worth Rs1,131.81 crore. The Indian rupee ended marginally lower against the US dollar at 85.44 per dollar. Lower growth forecast by IMF was a dampener. The markets are expected to remain jittery in the coming week as the chorus on taking some deterrent action on Pakistan, grows. Therehave been calls for conducting a military strike in Pakistani territory, similarto the one done in 2019. Indian stock markets fell on last Friday as thetension weighed on the domestic stock markets. The nuclear-armed nationshave already unleashed a slew of measures against each other. Themarkets will also take cues from the earnings of Reliance Industries (RIL), which announced its Q4 results over the weekend. Gold has been on thebullish territory in the last six years gaining more than 150 per cent. Amongall asset classes, Gold has been in stellar form and is still up by nearly 24 per centthis year despite the previous week's fall. While gold is trading in anoverbought zone, Trump tariff news flow, the India-Pakistan geo politicalsituation and rupee weakness could keep the prices steady and on the up. Some of the big results expected during the coming week include TVS Motor, UltraTech Cement, Ambuja Cements, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance,Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Trent, Vedanta, Avenue Supermarts, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Power, Adani Green Energy, Adani Total Gas coming week is truncated, with Thursday being a trading holiday onaccount of Maharashtra Day. That is another testament to the fact that investing without education andresearch will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research ismuch more than just listening to popular opinion. F&O/ SECTOR WATCH Spooked by the rise in geopolitical tensions after the terror attack in Pahalgam, the Indian market faced pressure at higher levels and closedwith minor gains during the settlement week. Rollovers in Nifty futures were modestly higher at 79 per cent (last month 76%), in line with 3-month average of 80 per cent. In contrast, Bank Nifty rollovers stand at 75.05 per cent, down from 76.98 per cent last month and below the three-month average of 79.25 per cent, reflectingcomparatively weaker momentum. On other hand, market wide rolloversstood at 89 per cent (last month's market wide 90 per cent). Looking at Nifty's option data,the highest Call Open Interest was observed at the 24,500 and 24,200 strikes, while Put writers were active at the 24,000 and 23,800 strikes. Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty's Call options settled at 15.03 per cent, while Put options concluded at 15.94 per cent. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 16.25 per cent. The Put-Call Ratio of Open Interest(PCR OI) stood at 1.49 for the week. Nifty positions were mostly carried forward around the 24,200–24,250 futures range, while Bank Nifty rollovers were concentrated between 55,300–55,400. A breach of these levels may lead to downside pressure in both indices. Overall, the zone of 24,050-23,900 is a crucial support zone for Nifty. If the level of 23,900 is violated, it can lead to incremental weakness. Traders should closely monitor these key zones and Open Interest trends for further cues on market direction. Investors must keep fresh purchases in low-beta stocks that have strong relative strength. With sector rotation visible, a cautious outlook and stock-specific approach is advised. Stocks looking good are Crompton, CDSL, ICICI Lombard, MFSL, Mphasis and Ultratech. Stocks looking weak are Delhivery, IGL, Kalyan Jewellers, Hind Copper and Glenmark. Himadri Speciality Chemical Ltd Himadri Speciality Chemical Ltd is a global specialty chemicalcompany with a focus on research and development (R&D) andsustainability. The company develops raw materials of lithium-ion batteryvalue chain. It is primarily engaged in the manufacturing of carbon materials and chemicals. Its segments include carbon materials and chemicals, and power. Its diverse product portfolio includes specialty carbon black, coal tarpitch, refined naphthalene, advance materials, sulphonated naphthalene formaldehyde (SNF), specialty oils, power and others catering to variousindustries such as lithium-ion batteries, paints, plastics, tires, aluminum, graphite electrodes, agrochemicals, defence and construction chemicals. Itsproduct offerings include anode materials, silicon-based anode materials,cathode materials, graphene, hybrid polycarboxylate ether, and COLORX. Itoperates in both domestic and international markets, exporting toapproximately 54 countries across the globe. Accumulate at current levels for medium-term target of Rs700. (The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice- chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)
