African Giant Nigeria in Trouble as Humanitarian Crisis Looms
Image: AFP
Kim Heller
The 'Giant of Africa' is in bad shape.
In a massive humanitarian emergency, over 30 million Nigerians are facing hunger in the worst food shortage in the country's history. This crisis not only places Nigeria in peril but also poses a threat to regional stability, according to David Stevenson, the Nigerian Country Director for the World Food Programme.
Nigeria is a hotbed of instability. The danger of Jihadist insurgency is ever-present, the economy continues to decline, and the hazardous level of political corruption and attrition is eroding trust in the government.
The current administration's response to these interlinked crises will have significant consequences for the people of Nigeria, the well-being of West Africa, and the legacy of President Bola Tinubu. Under his leadership, GDP has fallen, and measures to revive the economy have faltered. He has failed to arrest country instability, the agricultural sector is under threat, and now the nation faces a food security emergency.
Trust in government has fallen. Resentment is growing.
According to a survey by the African Development Bank, released earlier this year, two-thirds of Nigerians believe their economic well-being is deteriorating. Previous surveys have shown growing frustrations about job shortages and dissatisfaction with the current administration of President Bola Tinubu.
Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) continue to wreak havoc in Nigeria, particularly in its north-eastern states, where state control has been derailed. Rural farming communities are devastated as insurgents destroy crops and kill livestock, placing farmland and families in jeopardy. Agricultural production has been severely compromised, and flooding has exacerbated the crisis.
It is estimated that over 2.5 million people have been displaced as a direct result of insurgency attacks and insurgency-related violence. In addition to the food security crisis, funding cuts from international donors are placing those caught in the violence of insurgency vulnerable and unprotected.
In the first half of 2025, 652 children have died from malnutrition in the Nigerian state of Katsina, according to Doctors Without Borders. Nigerian citizens are feeling powerless in the dread and violence of the never-ending insurgency.
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In a study by the World Bank conducted in 2024, over 70% of Nigerians confessed to feeling unsafe due to the lingering danger from armed groups.The economy is failing the people of Nigeria. The unemployment rate is rising and now stands at over 33%, according to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. Youth unemployment exceeds 45%, which is explosive given that close to two-thirds of Nigerians are under 35 years old.
The withdrawal of the 2023 fuel subsidy led to inflation reaching a 30-year high. The 2023 Pew Research Centre study found that only one in three Nigerians trusts the government to act in the country's best interest.
Well-known Nigerian activist and journalist David Hundeyin has written that under the Presidency of Goodluck Jonathan, the Nigerian economy more than doubled between 2007 and 2015, from $278 billion to $568 billion. He contrasts this with the poor performance under incumbent President Bola Tinubu.
Within a decade under this administration, the GDP dropped from over US$560 billion to just US$258 billion. Food inflation has risen by over 200% in the last year. The stark reality for millions of Nigerians is that food and other basic goods have become luxuries rather than everyday purchases. An estimated 3.6 million children are at risk of malnutrition.
Although economic reforms, including revised tax laws, the liberalisation of foreign exchange and the removal of the fuel subsidy, appear to have upped investor confidence, these measures have not brought relief to ordinary citizens. Living costs have risen substantially. The economy is contracting. Caught in a debilitating web of economic downturn, rising inflation, and ever-increasing job scarcity, citizen disillusionment is on the rise.
To stabilise Nigeria, urgent national intervention in the food sovereignty crisis is vital. The destiny of Nigeria rests on the government's capacity to halt and reverse the nation's economic decline, adopt a zero-tolerance approach to the never-ending cycle of insurgency, and revive its agricultural sector.
Farmlands should be treated as national key points. Farmers ought to be treated as VIP citizens, shielded and supported. Patrols of farmland must be permanent features on the agricultural landscape to ensure that insurgency is permanently eradicated. Foreign food aid is no remedy.
A full-scale resurgence of the agriculture sector needs to be the business of the day in Nigeria. The agricultural sector has been placed second fiddle to oil, with the Nigerian economy pivoting its economy around oil exports. This dependency on oil threatens both longer-term economic development and food security. The reliance on foreign loans and IMF aid has created a mountain of debt and a burden of dependency that continues to rob the nation of its economic sovereignty.
It is a painful paradox that Nigeria, the Giant of Africa, is battling to feed its people. Hundeyin has written of government neglect of the agricultural sector.
"Half of all the food produced in Nigeria every year does not make it off the farm.' Hundeyin claims that this is due to "simple issues like lack of rural roads for quick evacuation, and lack of storage and refrigeration equipment".
An emergency rejuvenation plan for agriculture is needed. Once the pride of Nigeria, the agricultural sector now lies in ruins, not only due to insurgency but also through government neglect. The revival of Nigeria is inseparable from the recovery and revitalisation of the agricultural sector. Nigeria has over 70 million hectares of arable land. That Nigeria cannot feed its population is a massive betrayal.
The Giant of Africa is no more.
* Kim Heller is a political analyst and author of No White Lies: Black Politics and White Power in South Africa.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.
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