New expectations for a ceasefire in Gaza - World - Al-Ahram Weekly

Al-Ahram Weekly

a day ago

The chances of an upcoming Gaza ceasefire are slim, observers say, as are those of an imminent nuclear deal between Washington and Tehran
Early next week, US Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff is expected to arrive in the region for a tour that will include stops in the capitals of the two regional mediators for a Gaza ceasefire, Cairo and Doha. Witkoff's regional tour will also include Israel and maybe two other Arab capitals.
Witkoff's visit comes against the backdrop of new hype for a Gaza ceasefire that US President Donald Trump has produced with statements suggesting that an end to the Israeli war on Gaza that has been going on unabated since 7 October 2023 could be just around the corner.
The Witkoff visit, if it happens, is important because it reflects a US commitment to engage all the parties concerned to end the war on Gaza, said an informed Egyptian source.
However, he added that the visit in itself does not promise that a deal is in the making.
According to the Israeli press, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to arrive in Washington on 7 July for talks with Trump.
Prior to the announcement of the date of the visit, Trump called on both Hamas and Israel to 'make the deal in Gaza' and demanded the immediate return of the hostages in a post published on Truth Social.
It was not immediately clear, according to the sources who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly, whether Trump is likely to put pressure on Netanyahu to move forward with a deal to end the war on Gaza in order to fulfil the expectations of the US president.
The sources, including Egyptian and Cairo-based foreign diplomats, said that the intensified Israeli strikes on Gaza during the past few days indicate that Netanyahu is probably making it difficult for Hamas leaders to pressure them into accepting 'a total surrender' deal that they have been declining for the past few months.
The new Israeli wave of military escalation also includes evacuation orders. Thousands of Palestinians fled eastern Gaza city after the Israeli army warned of a broad and imminent offensive in the area. Warnings posted on social media announced that the military operations would escalate and advance westward towards Gaza city's centre.
Residents in several densely populated neighbourhoods were instructed to evacuate to Al-Mawasi, a congested coastal suburb in southern Gaza already overwhelmed by overcrowding and a severe lack of basic services.
According to three Cairo-based foreign diplomats, from the perspective of Netanyahu, it could well be that a deal will start with the hand-over of the remaining Israeli hostages that were taken on 7 October 2023 during the resistance operation against Israel and then move to the eviction of a few hundred Hamas leaders from Gaza, the handover of Hamas arms, and the lumping of the entire Gaza population in less than one third of the Strip and eventually their eviction, possibly through Egypt.
In an interview with the TV talk show Kalema Akhira (The Last Word) this week, the Egyptian foreign minister reaffirmed Cairo's categorical objection to the displacement of the Gazan population. Instead, he suggested a two-month truce that could allow for the release of the hostages and the improvement of the disastrous humanitarian situation in Gaza.
A source close to Hamas said that in their talks with Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish mediators, the leaders of the Islamic Resistance Movement had declined any deal that does not lead to the end of war, even if through a phased process of withdrawals, without any conditions on the displacement of the Gazans or any demands of Hamas to either disintegrate or disarm.
The Egyptian source said that during the days leading up to his scheduled visit to Washington, Netanyahu is likely to 'continue to impose a new reality on the ground, whereby the vast majority of Palestinians would be lumped together in a narrow segment of Gaza in anticipation of the 'you either stay and suffer or exit and live' scenario.'
It is not clear whether this visit is more about Iran than about Gaza, given the ongoing scepticism in some diplomatic quarters in the region over the sustainability of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel that was concluded late last week at the end of the 12-day war initiated by Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear and military installations.
However, a source informed on the back channels of the US-Iran talks said that Trump is serious about getting a new nuclear deal with Iran 'in weeks not months'. He said that whatever the expectations for a possible resumption of the missile exchange between Iran and Israel, it was highly unlikely that Washington would allow it to develop into a consequential confrontation, at least in the short term.
According to the same source, a deal might prove to be difficult to strike in view of the 'zero enrichment' conditions that Trump added towards the end of the negotiations process that was ongoing prior to the Israeli strikes against Iran on 13 June.
The Iranians are keen to avoid the resumption of the war, but they will not agree to Trump's condition. As a result, it is a question of how far the mediators can go in reconciling the positions of the Iranians and those of Washington that are highly influenced by Netanyahu's objectives, the source said.
On a parallel track, a regional diplomatic source said that speculation that the Netanyahu-Trump talks in Washington will pave the way for new normalisation deals between Syria and Lebanon, on the one hand, and Israel, on the other, are 'premature'.
'I am not saying that it is not going to happen, but I can certainly say that the ground is not fully paved,' he stated.
According to this source, any normalisation deal in the full sense of the word with Syria and Lebanon would require the mutual recognition of clear borders. He argued that it is hard to see how this could happen without a proper demarcation process on the border between Syria and Lebanon.
'This is not at all a straightforward issue, and the new regime in Damascus has been very slow in accommodating pressing Lebanese demands to start a process there,' he stated.
The same source said that the new regime in Damascus might agree to a deal that does not entail the full regaining of Syrian control of the occupied Golan Heights up to the border point of 4 June 1967 prior to the Israeli occupation.
However, he added, there is a limitation to the territorial compromise that Syria's Interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa could accept, given the desire for the re-integration of Syria.
On Monday, Trump signed an order to remove the sanctions imposed on Syria. According to the regional diplomat, this is a sign that 'a process of sorts will get started between Syria and Israel, but not a sign that a comprehensive peace deal will be signed shortly.'
According to some sources, there is an American proposal for a joint Israeli-Syrian presence in the Golan Heights that Trump and Netanyahu will discuss in their Washington talks.
And according to the regional source, there are 'already several channels for direct talks open between Israel and Syria.' He added that there are also some indirect channels between Lebanon and Israel, 'where Israel isn't showing any flexibility' with regard to Lebanese demands for a full Israeli withdrawal from the five villages it occupied during its confrontation with Hizbullah last year.
Overall, the sources agree that the region is not yet ready for the kind of 'mega-deal' that Trump is trying to promote, and that the chances of conflicts continuing are high.
Reported by Dina Ezzat, Siham Shamalakh, and Nermine Said
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