Israel and Hamas have different reasons for pursuing Gaza deal

Mint

2 days ago

If Israel and Hamas complete negotiations brokered by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt, they would pause the nearly two-year-old war in Gaza, free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and allow more humanitarian aid into the hunger-striken enclave.
Israel's military campaign against Iran last month has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a window to negotiate. The strikes on Iran followed more than a year in which Israel went on the offensive against Iran's allies, weakening Lebanon's Hezbollah movement and contributing to the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.
The Iran war, which set back Tehran's nuclear program and demonstrated Israel's military superiority over its main adversary in the region, could allow Netanyahu to push back on his right-wing coalition partners, who have threatened to abandon the government if he ends the war in Gaza.
In Gaza, Hamas is under pressure from Palestinians demanding a reprieve from the crisis after more than three months in which Israel has restricted food and other supplies allowed into the enclave. Israel has also killed a series of top Hamas leaders in recent months. The Islamist group is also facing a cash crunch that is making it harder for it to pay its rank and file.
The new proposal calls for a temporary, 60-day cease-fire that would buy time for mediators to attempt to broker a permanent end to the war, which could prove far more difficult than a temporary pause. Israel and Hamas have paused fighting twice before, in November 2023 and in January.
'It's not his preference, but Netanyahu has some interest in saying, OK I now have a new victory narrative after Iran," said Daniel Levy, a former Israeli official and negotiator. 'He can only begin to test the waters on whether that gives him a pronounced-enough political bounce if he goes into a temporary cease-fire."
Hamas on Friday accepted the framework of the proposed two-month cease-fire, saying it was ready to enter 'serious negotiations" toward implementing the proposal.
The current framework calls for a cease-fire that would trigger U.S.-backed negotiations to end the war. The proposal, put together by U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff along with mediators from Egypt and Qatar, includes the exchange of 10 living Israeli hostages for a larger number of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
That formula—similar to language used in the January cease-fire and in months of negotiations since—is designed to bridge the positions of Israel, which doesn't want to commit up front to a permanent end to the war, and Hamas, which has demanded a guaranteed end to the war.
Some questions would have to be resolved in a final round of indirect negotiations before a cease-fire could be declared. Among other issues, the manner and extent of Israeli military redeployments in Gaza and the quantities and delivery mechanism for humanitarian aid would have to be hammered out, according to officials and observers of the talks.
Pressure from the Trump administration will also play an important role. Netanyahu is set to meet President Trump in Washington on Monday. The Israeli security cabinet is expected to discuss the possible cease-fire agreement during a meeting on Saturday night.
Netanyahu has been under political pressure since Hamas's attack on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed some 1,200 people and seized another 250 hostages. Netanyahu has sought to increase his chances of remaining in power after a public outcry over the security and intelligence failures that led to the attack, political analysts say. Netanyahu has for years advocated for a hawkish policy on Iran including possible military action.
'He can't ignore the claim that he'd made for so long, which is, if you remove the Iranian threat, then a whole new vista opens up for what you can do in this region," Levy said.
To capitalize on the Israeli public's broad support for the attack on Iran, Netanyahu is considering calling snap elections, according to a person close to the Netanyahu family. But he's still facing an uphill battle. He was already a divisive figure in Israel when his popularity took a massive hit after the Hamas attack. Before the Iranian offensive, polls showed that his current coalition would lose power if an election was held now.
Also, families of the hostages have been taking to the streets for months, calling for an end to the war and a deal to bring home their relatives. The current proposal calls for Hamas to release 10 of the around 20 hostages Israel believes are still alive, along with bodies of some of the roughly 30 deceased hostages.
Israel is also facing diplomatic pressure from allies to end the fighting in Gaza and ease the humanitarian crisis there.
Israel's war against Hamas has reduced much of Gaza to rubble and killed more than 57,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, who don't say how many were combatants.
In Gaza, Hamas is under pressure to accept a cease-fire from Palestinians who have had enough of the hunger and ever-present threat of airstrikes from Israeli forces.
'The biggest pressure on Hamas for whatever is being put on offer, even just a momentary pause that can allow some aid in, is enough to potentially make them now sign on, if that can offer Gazans some reprieve," said Tahani Mustafa, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Israel has in recent months sidestepped aid operations led by the United Nations and instead backed a private aid-delivery system in which Israeli soldiers and armed American private contractors are protecting aid distribution hubs. The food has often run out quickly and there is often chaotic overcrowding at sites.
Israeli military spokesman Effie Defrin said Thursday the military would soon complete the current phase of its operation in Gaza. Hamas is in a weakened position in Gaza after the elimination of much of its leadership, Defrin said. The group is now on its third leader in eight months.
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