Rivers stable, but India could trigger floods
Pakistan may face potential flooding if India releases water into rivers flowing across the border, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) warned on Tuesday, amid forecasts of back-to-back monsoon spells and increased Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk this month.
PMD Director General Mahr Sahibzad Khan said that while most rivers in Pakistan remain stable, the Chenab River faces a possible flood threat. The Ravi River, he noted, is currently safe due to available storage in Indian dams.
"There's no flood threat in the Jhelum and Sutlej rivers at present, but the Chenab is at risk," Khan told The Express Tribune. "Flooding could occur if India releases excess water. However, our dams currently have sufficient capacity to manage inflows."
Khan added that the ongoing monsoon spell would continue until Friday, July 25, followed by another wet spell at the end of the month. He warned that persistent rainfall, especially in northern areas, could heighten flood risks.
"The rainfall is improving dam levels, but the threat remains. Another weather system is expected later this month, which may bring more intense rain," he cautioned.
Despite its minimal contribution to global carbon emissions, Pakistan remains one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change. Khan attributed increasing weather unpredictability, cloudbursts, and glacial melt to global climate shifts.
"Pakistan's contribution to air pollution is negligible, yet we are among the hardest hit by climate change," he said. "Extreme rainfall and rapid glacier melt are creating hazardous conditions."
Addressing recent flooding in Islamabad's Saidpur Village and Chakwal, Khan clarified that these were not cloudburst events.
"A cloudburst is defined by over 100mm of rainfall in one hour. In Saidpur, it was prolonged heavy rain over 24 hours," he explained. "The flooding was aggravated by illegal constructions blocking natural drainage channels."
"Pakistan's contribution to air pollution is negligible, yet we are among the hardest hit by climate change," he said. "Extreme rainfall and rapid glacier melt are creating hazardous conditions."
GLOF Alert
The Met Office has issued a high-alert warning for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), where rapid glacier melt and heavy rains threaten to trigger flash floods.
"Glacial melt combined with intense rain may cause sudden river surges and flooding in low-lying areas," the Met Department stated in its daily report. It advised all relevant disaster management authorities to remain on high alert.
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