Turns out the vibes were actually right this time
Why it matters: Call it a victory for vibes.
The big picture: For years, consumer surveys about the economy, and even some "soft" data indicators, failed to predict what's actually happening in the real economy. The so-called vibecession predicted a recession that never came.
But with this latest unemployment report, there's a sign that people are in touch with reality — at least when it comes to the job market.
Americans know a stinker when they're living with it.
Catch up fast: Job growth was anemic in July, worse than previously realized for the past few months, according to the closely watched Labor Department data released Friday. The numbers surprised the markets.
Only 106,000 jobs were added to the economy over the last three months — the lowest since 2020, when the pandemic cratered employment. The resilient labor market was a "mirage," as Axios' Courtenay Brown writes.
Zoom in: That would've been less of a shock if you'd been following the "anec-data," that is surveys and stories from the real world about the state of the job market.
Glassdoor, the jobs site, has been tracking declining " employee confidence" all year.
In May and June, it hit record lows — with a sinking share of workers reporting a positive business outlook for their employer.
By the numbers: In June, only 43% of workers reported an upbeat outlook, the lowest since Glassdoor began tracking in 2016. Mention of "uncertainty" in Glassdoor job reviews spiked this spring.
66% of consumers surveyed in March said they expected more unemployment over the next year — the highest level in a decade, per University of Michigan data analyzed by Bank of America Institute.
Unemployment, meanwhile, is still relatively low, but once you lose a job it's grown harder to find another. The share of Americans continuing to receive unemployment insurance has soared this year.
Zoom out: Reports of a white-collar recession, and tales of professionals' struggles to land jobs have been growing.
CEOs have been talking about workers being replaceable all year — a sign that they're not in desperate need of employees.
Workers' pay expectations have been diminishing, too. The lowest wage Americans would be willing to accept for a new job fell sharply this year to $74,236 from a record high $82,135 in 2024, per a survey from the New York Federal Reserve on the so-called "reservation wage."
Reality check: If you have a job, you're probably relatively OK — though it's become difficult to job hop. Layoffs are still relatively low.
" Companies are holding onto workers since it was hard to hire them and then train them in the first place," Rick Rieder, BlackRock's chief investment officer of global fixed income, said in a Friday note about the jobs report.
They still feel like things could improve, and will need staff going forward.
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Miami Herald
6 hours ago
- Miami Herald
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San Francisco Chronicle
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