College Football Playoff Predictions: Which Team has the Clearest Path to the CFP?
Is this the year Steve Sarkisian and Texas finally get over the hump and reach the mountaintop? With a new quarterback under center and a pair of new coordinators in place, can Ohio State be the first program to repeat as national champions since Georgia did it in 2021 and 2022?
These are some of the top debates currently going on as kickoff is now less than 50 days away. But as media pundits across the nation begin to roll out their preseason polls and reveal their national championship picks, it's important to take a look at the path each team must take in order to make this year's CFP.
With that, we asked our college football writers the following question: Based on schedule, roster and playoff structure, which team is best positioned to make the CFP this year?
FOX Sports' Laken Litman, RJ Young and Michael Cohen debate the topic below:
Given the strength and depth of both the SEC and the Big Ten, two leagues whose members will pepper the preseason AP Poll when it is released later in the summer, the exercise of selecting a program with the clearest path to the College Football Playoff is largely about identifying the most talented team beyond those confines, a school immune to the rigors of such brutal scheduling. The 11 most difficult schedules in the country for 2025 will all be played by SEC schools, according to the strength-of-schedule metric compiled by ESPN, and 30 of the top 32 schedules overall belong to programs from either the SEC or the Big Ten. The only outliers are Syracuse at No. 17 and Florida State at No. 24, both of whom play in the ACC.
A bit further down the list, at No. 40 overall, is presumptive ACC favorite Clemson, a team that is both the defending conference champion and a trendy national championship pick given the addition of highly touted defensive coordinator Tom Allen (formerly of Penn State) and the return of star quarterback Cade Klubnik, who threw for 3,639 yards with 36 touchdowns and only six interceptions while leading the Tigers to the College Football Playoff last fall. An argument can be made that Klubnik, now a senior, is among the best returning starters in the country alongside Garrett Nussmeier of LSU and Drew Allar of Penn State. The season-opening showdown between Klubnik and Nussmeier on Aug. 30 at Clemson could go a long way toward shaping early-season Heisman Trophy discussion and NFL mock draft debates.
But aside from the undoubtedly tricky opener, Clemson has an extremely manageable schedule the rest of the way. The Tigers avoid perennial offseason winner Miami, which is chasing the first College Football Playoff appearance in school history, and host arguably their two toughest conference opponents at home in SMU on Oct. 19 and Florida State on Nov. 8. It's entirely possible that the stiffest tests of Clemson's season will come in bookend games against LSU in late August and the rivalry game with South Carolina — another trendy playoff pick behind emerging quarterback LaNorris Sellers — in late November. Anything less than another trip to the College Football Playoff would be a disappointment for head coach Dabo Swinney, considering how nicely the stars have aligned for his program in 2025.
Combine a sweetheart schedule with a program that has won 10 or more games in the Pac-12 and Big Ten across the last five full seasons, and you're likely to get more of the same.
The toughest team the Ducks have on their schedule is Penn State, a team it knows it can beat. The following week, the Ducks will host an Indiana team that has to cross two time zones. Yes, they've got a cross-country flight from Eugene to Piscataway, New Jersey, to play Rutgers, but you're not going to pick against the Ducks here. No one will.
The Ducks ought to be a pretty safe bet to finish 11-1 and squarely in the conversation to host a first-round playoff game.
Yes, Dante Moore has to show he's good enough to pilot the offense, and there will be new wideouts on the outside, with Evan Stewart sustaining a season-ending injury this offseason and Tez Johnson off to the NFL. But they got better in the secondary with the addition of Dillon Thieneman, who is the second-best safety in the sport behind Caleb Downs. Over the past two years, Thieneman has accounted for 210 tackles and six interceptions. If he didn't play at Purdue, you'd hear more people crow about it. This is also a defense that was adept at putting quarterbacks on the ground with 40 sacks last year. With Matayo Uiagalelei and Bear Alexander on the defensive line, they ought to come close to that number again.
There aren't many programs that have been as consistently good without winning a national title as Oregon has since the inception of the CFP. Add to this, the Ducks have won as many Big Ten titles in the past decade as Penn State, and it's just their second year in the league.
The Nittany Lions are a popular preseason pick to win the national championship this year. James Franklin's team is ranked No. 1 in several preseason polls and appears to have the roster and coaching staff to back it up.
After making a CFP semifinal run last year, this team wants to go further in 2025. Quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, which will be massive for this offense, especially if Allar can take another step in his development as a passer. He's already projected to be a first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft and has some new weapons to help him out with several notable wide receiver transfers. Defensively, coordinator Jim Knowles has joined the program from reigning national champion Ohio State, which immediately gives Penn State more clout on that side of the ball. Not for nothing, Knowles knows the Buckeyes inside and out and can provide insight on the matchup when those Big Ten rivals play in Columbus on Nov. 1. Penn State is 1-9 against Ohio State over the past 10 years and a win on the road would be season-defining.
The Nittany Lions have a winnable regular-season schedule, making their overall outlook positive. They host Oregon on Sept. 27, providing an early barometer of where this team actually is, and then have a pretty steady month of October before the showdown in Columbus. They'll host Indiana, which is coming off its best season in program history last year, but Penn State doesn't have to play Michigan or Illinois. Perhaps the selection committee will dock PSU in the end for not having a strong non-conference schedule – Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are the first three opponents, – but Franklin should have a strong enough team that realistically should win the conference for that not to matter in the long run.
Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him at @RJ_Young.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.
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