The Indus under siege

Business Recorder

14-06-2025

The Egyptian and Indus Valley civilizations, though separated by the chasm of time and geography, are linked by the remarkable parallels in their histories. These ancient societies flourished under the lifeblood of their respective rivers—the Nile in Egypt and the Indus in South Asia—both of which nurtured their existence and fueled their development. The Nile and the Indus were not merely rivers; they were the arteries of thriving civilizations, ensuring agricultural success, enabling trade, and forming the bedrock of their prosperity.
For ancient Egyptians, the Nile was indispensable. It enriched their lands with fertile soil, sustained complex irrigation systems, and provided reliable transportation. However, the Nile's importance extended beyond the practical — it became the spiritual essence of their civilization.
The Egyptians revered the river as a divine gift, integral to their identity and central to their beliefs and rituals. As historians from institutions such as the Carnegie Museum of Natural History have noted, the Nile influenced every aspect of Egyptian life, making it not just a source of sustenance but also a spiritual anchor.
Even today, Egyptians honor the river's origins at Lake Victoria and Lake Tana, often referred to as the 'mothers of the Nile.' Visiting these lakes has become a cultural tradition, a testament to the unbroken bond between the people and their cherished river.
The Indus River (Sindhu) held an equally pivotal role in shaping the Indus Valley Civilization and, later, the culture of Sindh, now a province of Pakistan. Like the Nile, the Indus provided the foundation for advanced agricultural practices, the development of bustling urban centers, and robust trade networks.
The very name 'Sindh' derives from the ancient Sanskrit word Sindhu, meaning 'river,' underscoring how deeply the region's identity is tied to this waterway. The Indus originates from the sacred Lake Mansarovar in Tibet, yet unlike Egyptians, who honour the Nile's sources, Sindhis have not developed cultural or spiritual traditions around the origins of their river. Nevertheless, Sindhis have consistently demonstrated their devotion to protecting the Indus.
A vivid example of this commitment was witnessed during the relentless protests and unwavering resolve to seek agreed water share in accordance with the 1991 Water Accord. The protests proved determination to safeguard the health and flow of the river. This unity and dedication are a powerful reminder of how deeply the Indus is intertwined with their cultural and economic survival.
However, in a tragic and alarming turn of events, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on April 24, 2025, escalating tensions over water rights. The treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has long been a cornerstone of water-sharing agreements between India and Pakistan, governing the use of the Indus and its tributaries.
Yet, the geography of the Indus poses a complex challenge: the river flows for approximately 500 kilometers through the Ladakh region, which is under Indian control. According to the IWT, India is permitted to store up to 0.25 million acre-feet (MAF) of water for general and power storage in the Ladakh region, but recent developments indicate plans far exceeding these limits.
Over the years, India has constructed several hydropower projects on the Indus in Ladakh, including Nimoo Bazgo and Chutak, with capacities of 45 MW and 44 MW, respectively. Now, India has unveiled plans for 10 new mega hydropower projects in Ladakh, including Achinthang-Sanjak, Parfila, Sunit (Batalik), and Khalsti. These projects not only exceed the storage capacities allowed under the treaty but also raise significant concerns about the diversion and reduction of water flow into Pakistan.
Perhaps even more troubling is India's development of a 45-kilometer inland water transport route on the Indus in Ladakh, stretching from Upshi village to Shey village (NW-46). This project involves constructing barrages to maintain water levels, with one weir already completed at Ugu village. While these initiatives are framed as efforts to improve transportation and energy production, their strategic implications cannot be overlooked.
The question that arises is whether Ladakh truly needs such projects. Ladakh is one of the most sparsely populated regions in India, with a thinly distributed population that experiences high energy losses during transmission. During winter, the Indus often freezes, rendering hydropower projects ineffective. On the other hand, Ladakh is uniquely positioned to harness solar energy, receiving over 300 sunny days annually.
Leh, the capital of Ladakh, enjoys more than 320 clear, sunny days each year, making the region an ideal location for solar energy generation. With an average output of 5.29 kWh/kWp daily, Ladakh has the potential to generate significantly more solar energy than areas like Delhi, which average 4.0 kWh/kWp. Yet, despite this abundant solar wealth, India's focus on hydropower and water transport projects on the Indus appears to serve a different agenda.
This agenda became starkly evident in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech on May 12, 2025, in which he declared that 'water and blood cannot flow together,' vowing to reduce the Indus River's flow into Pakistan to zero. This chilling statement, combined with the expansion of hydropower and inland water transport projects, signals an intent to weaponize the river as part of an economic and strategic campaign against Pakistan. If fully implemented, these plans could reduce the Indus's flow by over 23 MAF, a catastrophic blow to Pakistan's agriculture, economy, and water security. Such an outcome would have consequences far graver than the Six Canal issue, threatening the very survival of millions in Sindh and Pakistan as a whole.
In the face of this looming crisis, the question is whether the Sindhi people, who have so valiantly defended the Indus in the past, can extend their resistance beyond their borders. Can they take their protests beyond the Sukkur Barrage all the way to Frano, the last Pakistani village where the Indus crosses into Pakistan from India? Can they draw inspiration from the Egyptians, who have guarded the Nile all the way to Lake Victoria, and take similar action to protect the Indus up to Lake Mansarovar-China?
This is not merely a battle for water; it is a battle for survival, sovereignty, and the preservation of a civilization's heritage. The Sindhis must now rise with the same unity and determination they showed during protests over the just and fair water distribution as agreed per Water Accord 1991. The Indus has been their cradle of civilization, the source of their culture, and the foundation of their identity. To safeguard its flow is to safeguard their future.
The Indus River has sustained life and nurtured civilizations for millennia. Now, it is calling on the Sindhis to defend it once more—not just for themselves but for future generations of Pakistan who will depend on its life-giving waters. Let this be a rallying cry for action, for resilience, and for the enduring spirit of a people who have always stood by their river.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025