1 Analyst Thinks This Former Pandemic Winner Could Surge 500% This Year

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3 days ago

Moderna (MRNA), once an unknown biotech firm, quickly rose to the top of the global vaccine market during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its mRNA technology platform created one of the world's first and most widely used COVID-19 vaccines.
Investors who recognized its potential early saw a dramatic increase in share price, with MRNA stock rising by 1,226.9% between 2020 and 2022.
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Now, in this post-pandemic era, vaccine demand is no longer at its peak. The question is whether the company can move beyond its COVID-19 legacy and become a sustainable, diversified biotech company with long-term growth potential.
Moderna will report its second-quarter earnings on Aug. 1. The stock is down 22% year-to-date, underperforming the overall market. Let us see if the stock is a buy now on the dip.
A Deep and Ambitious Pipeline
Valued at $13.1 billion, Moderna is a biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA)-based medicines and vaccines. It uses synthetic mRNA to instruct human cells to produce proteins that can aid in disease prevention, treatment, and cure. Its primary areas of focus include infectious diseases, oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune diseases, and cardiovascular diseases.
Moderna's revenue increased dramatically during the peak pandemic years, owing primarily to sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. However, as global vaccination rates stabilized, the company's revenue began to decline. Total revenue fell by 35.3% in the first quarter of 2025 to $108 million, owing to lower net product sales. Spikevax sales totaled $84 million, versus $167 million in Q1 2024. This revenue decline has been difficult for investors accustomed to massive pandemic-era revenue.
The company's second commercial product is its standalone RSV vaccine, mRESVIA, which received FDA approval in mid-2024 for adults aged 60 and up. It generated $2 million in sales in the first quarter. Moderna is also testing a combined COVID-19/flu vaccine (mRNA-1083), which is currently in phase 3 trials. If approved, this combination has the potential to streamline millions of annual booster shots while also significantly reducing healthcare logistics and costs.
Beyond respiratory viruses, Moderna's oncology pipeline is a daring bet on personalized cancer vaccines. Its collaboration with Merck (MRK) has received significant attention, particularly for mRNA-4157, a personalized cancer vaccine for melanoma. Phase 3 trials are currently underway, and if successful, this approach could provide a new edge in immunotherapy. Further down the pipeline are vaccines for rare metabolic diseases like propionic acidemia and methylmalonic acidemia, as well as autoimmune conditions like multiple sclerosis. While these are early stage and speculative, they show the company's desire to become a multi-franchise biotech powerhouse.
Despite short-term revenue challenges, Moderna has been aggressively investing in research and development. As of 2025, the company has over 21 mRNA-based programs in development, including Zika, HIV, HSV, Influenza, and Lyme vaccines, among others. R&D spending totalled $856 million in Q1, with a target of $4.1 billion for the year, reflecting the cost of conducting numerous late-stage trials.
Moderna's business model is currently losing money due to a dramatic drop in revenue following the pandemic, as well as an increase in expenses. Its net loss stood at $2.52 per share, compared to $3.07 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company expects to return to profitability by 2026, assuming regulatory approvals and successful commercial launches for its next-generation vaccines. However, this may take time. Clinical setbacks, slower-than-expected market adoption, or pricing pressures may all cause a delay in returning to profitability.
Nonetheless, Moderna maintains a strong financial position. At the end of the first quarter, the company had more than $8.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents. This strong liquidity position allows for ongoing investment in clinical development, infrastructure expansion, and strategic acquisitions.
Analysts expect the company to report a loss of $3 per share in the second quarter, down from $3.33 the previous year. Revenue could fall by 53%, to $112.56 million. Analysts predict $2.07 billion in revenue for the year, which is consistent with management's forecast of $1.5 to $2.5 billion. However, revenue is expected to climb by 16.3% to $2.41 billion in 2026. Moderna has surpassed the earnings consensus four times in the last two years, with six revenue beats.
Is Moderna a Buy, Hold, or Sell on Wall Street?
The consensus on Moderna stock is an overall 'Hold.' Of the 26 analysts covering the stock, three rate it a 'Strong Buy,' 19 rate it a 'Hold,' one says it is a 'Moderate Sell,' and three rate it a 'Strong Sell.' The average target price of $42.95 implies the stock can rally 30% from current levels. Additionally, its high price estimate of $198 from Brookline Capital Markets suggests upside potential of more than 500% over the next 12 months.
While the upside appears unattainable in light of declining vaccine sales, Moderna stock has a track record of delivering outsized gains. A successful clinical trial result or an FDA approval can send a biotech stock skyrocketing.
Rebuilding After the Peak
Moderna faces the demanding task of reinventing itself for the post-COVID-19 era. This means transitioning from a single-product blockbuster to a diversified innovator with recurring revenues and pipeline-driven growth. Whether the stock has 'legs' in the long run will depend on its ability to introduce new products to the market and expand its reach. It will also have to convince investors that its post-pandemic story is just as interesting as the one that brought it to global prominence in the first place. This risky biotech is a good buy now if you still believe in the company's potential to turn its story around.
On the date of publication, Sushree Mohanty did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com