Michael Whatley's Chances of Beating Roy Cooper in North Carolina—New Poll
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A new poll of the North Carolina Senate election points to a close race between former Governor Roy Cooper and Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley in what is likely to be one of the most competitive of the 2026 midterms.
Matt Mercer, a North Carolina GOP spokesperson, told Newsweek that the poll should be "alarming for Democrats."
Newsweek also reached out to the Cooper campaign for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Cooper, a Democrat, announced his campaign earlier this week, and Whatley is expected to jump into the race after receiving support from President Donald Trump. A new poll from Victory Insights gives the first look at what a head-to-head matchup could look like next year, when Democrats are hoping to flip the seat being vacated by Republican Thom Tillis.
North Carolina is viewed as one of Democrats' best opportunities to flip a seat as they believe Trump's approval rating could fuel a 2018-style blue wave. Cooper is viewed as a strong candidate, but they still have not won a Senate race in the Tar Heel State since 2008, despite its battleground status.
RNC chair Michael Whatley speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Oxon Hills, Maryland, on February 21, 2025.
RNC chair Michael Whatley speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Oxon Hills, Maryland, on February 21, 2025.What To Know
Cooper and Whatley may be in for a tight race, according to the Victory Insights.
The poll gave Cooper a narrow advantage, with 43.4 percent of respondents saying they would be inclined to support him next November, while 40.2 percent said they planned to cast their ballot for Whatley if he wins the GOP nomination.
However, when those who were undecided were pushed to say who they were leaning toward, Cooper's advantage narrowed.
In that scenario, 44.4 percent of respondents said they planned to back Cooper, while 43.5 percent said they would back Whatley, according to the poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters from July 28-30.
Other polls have similarly pointed to a tight race, though this is the first to ask about Whatley specifically.
A poll released last week by co/efficient found that Cooper would be tied with a generic Republican candidate—each receiving 48 percent support.
In November, Trump carried North Carolina with 51 percent of the vote to former Vice President Kamala Harris' 47.8 percent.
North Carolina voters have generally preferred Republicans in federal races since 2008, when former President Barack Obama and former Senator Kay Hagan defeated Republicans in their races. But Democrats have fared well in state elections. Democrat Josh Stein won November's gubernatorial race by nearly 15 points after Republican Mark Robinson faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail.
What People Are Saying
Matt Mercer, a North Carolina GOP spokesperson, told Newsweek: "It should be alarming for Democrats to see Roy Cooper, with 93 percent name ID, not just tied but well below 50 percent in this poll. North Carolinians appear to know who Roy Cooper is: a 40-year career politician, radical liberal, and he cannot run away from his party's hard-left policies. A rough launch, indeed."
Ben Galbraith, a senior pollster for Victor Insights, in the polling memo: "In summary, despite a generally favorable electorate for Republicans, Cooper is starting out with a lead, which corroborates the conventional wisdom that Cooper was a strong choice for the Democratic nomination. However, Whatley has plenty of room to grow, and all signs indicate he'll have the funding and campaign infrastructure to do so."
Roy Cooper, in a video announcing his candidacy: "I never really wanted to go to Washington. I just wanted to serve the people of North Carolina right here, where I've lived all my life. But these are not ordinary times."
What Happens Next
Several other Republicans have been floated as potential candidates, but it's unclear whether Trump's endorsement will affect their plans.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both classify the North Carolina Senate race as a pure toss-up.
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