Expectations For a Global Sugar Surplus Continue to Weigh on Prices
Sugar prices today gave up an early advance and fell sharply, with London sugar posting a 1-week low. Sugar prices have plummeted over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. On July 2, October NY sugar posted a contract low, and Aug London sugar posted a 3.75-year nearest-futures low, while on June 30 the July NY sugar contract posted a 4.25-year low on the nearest-futures chart. On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.
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On Monday, NY sugar initially climbed to a 2-week high, and last Wednesday, London sugar posted a 1.5-month high on concerns that global sugar supplies may tighten. Pakistan said last week it will import 500,000 MT of sugar, and the Philippines said it will import 424,000 MT of sugar.
The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India's monsoon season runs from June through September. On Monday, the India Meteorological Department reported that rainfall in June was 9% above normal in India and has forecast above-normal rain for July.
Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. On May 22, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y/y to a record 44.7 MMT. Also, India's 2025/26 sugar production is projected to rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. In addition, Thailand's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30, after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, the ISMA projects that India's 2024/25 sugar production will fall by -17.5% y/y to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT. Also, the ISMA reported last Monday that India's sugar production from Oct 1-May 15 was 25.74 MMT, down -17% from the same period last year. In addition, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said on May 1 that India's 2024/25 sugar exports may only total 800,000 MT, below earlier expectations of 1 MMT.
The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. On May 2, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.
Sugar prices have some support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported today that the cumulative 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through June is down by -14.3% y/y to 12.249 MMT. Last month, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, said 2024/25 Brazil sugar production fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This indicates a tightening market following the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a record 177.921 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2025/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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