A masterclass in diplomacy
Over the past 18 months, Riyadh has quietly delivered a masterclass in diplomacy, steadily reshaping how Western capitals approach the Palestinian file. Under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the hands-on diplomacy of Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the Kingdom has pursued a strategy rooted in hard-nosed pragmatism: Washington's strategic umbrella over Israel will not fold under fiery speeches or social media storms. Rather than waste energy on theatrics, Saudi Arabia has opted for a patient, cumulative approach — chipping away at Israel's aura of effortless Western legitimacy until the political calculus inside G7 capitals begins to shift. It may feel slow to the impatient observer, but in a world that rewards persistence over noise, this is how real influence is built.
At the core of this approach is a sober understanding of limits, paired with precisely applied leverage. Saudi Arabia does not pretend it can strong-arm a superpower. Instead, it keeps oil markets steady and refrains from military theatrics — moves that earn quiet access where it matters most: in chancelleries, parliaments, and boardrooms that shape policy toward Israel. Critics mistake this restraint for timidity. In truth, it reflects a deeper wisdom: Decades of impulsive grandstanding have done little beyond plunging the region into chaos. Riyadh has learned that proportion, not provocation, delivers lasting results.
The coalition-building effort began in Paris, where France, seeking Middle East relevance, found its regional ballast in Saudi Arabia. London, responding to domestic outrage over Gaza, followed suit; Ottawa, wary of standing alone in the G7, came next. Each recognition of Palestine may be symbolic, but symbolism is precisely what has underpinned Israel's hard-won status as a normalized Western democracy. Every fracture in that image raises the long-term reputational cost of occupation and embeds it into Israeli strategic thinking.
This quiet momentum reflects the polling data: US support for Israel's Gaza operations has eroded sharply, especially among voters under 40. Demography is destiny. Riyadh is playing the long game — betting on time, not tantrums, to unwind Washington's old consensus. That consensus is already fraying on college campuses, in statehouses, and across ESG-conscious boardrooms. The tactic: maintain the spotlight on Gaza, deny any pretext for American disengagement, and let US voters begin to carry the moral and political weight.
The crown prince made the Kingdom's position unequivocal in his Shoura Council address: There will be no recognition of Israel without a viable Palestinian state. This is not a revival of 1973-style oil brinkmanship — which in today's world would simply accelerate Western diversification and slash Arab revenues. Instead, Riyadh keeps markets stable while freezing Israel's regional integration until it engages seriously with a two-state solution. That keeps global consumers comfortable — and Israel on edge.
Saudi diplomacy has achieved in 18 months what half a century of summitry and rhetoric failed to deliver.
Ali Shihabi
The promise of normalization remains on the table — but firmly behind a two-state gate. The Abraham Accords opened easy access to the Gulf. Saudi Arabia redrew that map. Sovereign capital, Red Sea connectivity, and cutting-edge partnerships are all within reach — but only post-settlement. The burden now shifts to Israel: It must explain to its own citizens why ideology should block a generational opportunity to transform from a garrison state to a regional player. When economic logic aligns with strategic necessity, ideology eventually yields.
One of the most consequential developments came when Saudi Arabia, alongside other Arab states, publicly called for Hamas to disarm and relinquish control of Gaza. This decisive step stripped Israel of a convenient excuse to delay its withdrawal and continue its campaign of collective punishment. By removing the justification of 'no partner for peace,' it undercut Israel's excuse to prolong military operations and war crimes under the guise of self-defense — reinforcing the international call for an end to occupation and the need for a political solution.
Those Muslim and Arab voices calling for boycotts, embargoes, or war have misread both history and the current moment. Power today lies in leverage applied at pressure points — not in slogans shouted from podiums. Saudi diplomacy has forced Western democracies, Israel's most critical club of supporters, to seriously reconsider the question of Palestinian statehood. It has achieved in 18 months what half a century of summitry and rhetoric failed to deliver. The task now is for other Arab capitals to reinforce this approach, consolidating influence rather than scattering it in performative gestures.
Yes, Israel retains a US veto — for now. But no veto can stop demographic shifts in swing states, the quiet pressure of British MPs attuned to their constituents, or the economic calculus of European firms navigating boycott risks. In time, Israel will face a stark choice: perpetual siege and growing isolation, or coexistence with a sovereign Palestinian neighbor. Saudi Arabia today holds the key to that door — and remains the only real diplomatic lifeline for Ramallah.
In the battlefields of 2025 — conference rooms, boardrooms, and social media feeds — the Kingdom advances quietly, methodically, and on its own terms. For those who value outcomes over optics, this is not caution. It is wisdom.
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