USAID analysis found no evidence of massive Hamas theft of Gaza aid
The slide presentation noted USAID partners tended to over-report aid diversion and theft by groups sanctioned or designated by the US as foreign terrorist organisations, such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, because they want to avoid losing US funding.
Of the 156 incidents of loss or theft reported, 63 were attributed to unknown perpetrators, 35 to armed actors, 25 to unarmed people, 11 directly to Israeli military action, 11 to corrupt subcontractors, five to aid group personnel 'engaging in corrupt activities' and six to 'others', a category that accounted for 'commodities stolen in unknown circumstances', according to the slide presentation.
The armed actors 'included gangs and other miscellaneous individuals who may have had weapons', said a slide. Another slide said 'a review of all 156 incidents found no affiliations with' US-designated foreign terrorist organisations, of which Hamas is one.
'Most incidents could not be definitively attributed to a specific actor,' said another slide.
'Partners often largely discovered the commodities had been stolen in transit without identifying the perpetrator.'
It is possible there were classified intelligence reports on Hamas aid thefts, but BHA staff lost access to classified systems in the dismantlement of USAID, said a slide.
However, a source familiar with US intelligence assessments told Reuters they knew of no US intelligence reports detailing Hamas aid diversions and Washington was relying on Israeli reports.
The BHA analysis found the Israeli military 'directly or indirectly caused' 44 incidents in which US-funded aid was lost or stolen. These included the 11 attributed to direct Israeli military actions, such as air strikes or orders to Palestinians to evacuate areas of the war-torn enclave.
Losses indirectly attributed to Israeli military included cases where they compelled aid groups to use delivery routes with high risks of theft or looting, ignoring requests for alternative routes, the analysis said.
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The Citizen
6 minutes ago
- The Citizen
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IOL News
3 hours ago
- IOL News
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People walk past destroyed vehicles on the grounds of a hospital in Sudan's capital Khartoum in April 2025. Image: AFP In the two years of civil war in Sudan the country has lost more than 50% of it's economy. Image: AFP Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading My research applies economy-wide models to understand how conflict affects national development. In a recent study, my colleagues and I used this approach to answer the question: what will happen to Sudan's economy and poverty levels if the war continues through 2025? To assess the economic impact of the conflict, we used a Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model. This is a tool that captures how shocks affect different sectors and other agents of the economy, such as firms, government and households. Based on our modelling, the answer is devastating: the conflict could shrink the size of Sudan's economy by over 40% from 2022 levels, plunging millions more into poverty. We modelled two scenarios to capture the potential trajectories of Sudan's economy. The extreme scenario assumes a sharp initial collapse, with a 29.5% contraction in the size of the economy in 2023 and 12.2% in 2024, followed by a 7% decline in 2025, reflecting some stabilisation over time. The moderate scenario, based on World Bank projections, applies a 20.1% contraction in 2023 and a 15.1% drop in 2024, also followed by a 7% reduction in 2025, indicating a slower but more prolonged deterioration. We estimated the annual figures and report only the aggregate impacts through 2025 for clarity. We found that if the conflict endures, the value of Sudan's economy will contract by up to 42% from US$56.3 billion in 2022 (pre-conflict) to US$32.4 billion by the end of 2025. The backbone of livelihoods – agriculture – will be crippled. And the social fabric of the country will continue to fray. How we did it Our Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model used data from various national and international sources to show the impact of conflict on the value of the economy, its sectors and household welfare. We connected this to government and World Bank data to reflect Sudan's current conditions. This allowed us to simulate how conflict-driven disruptions affect the value of the economy, its sectors and household welfare. What we found Under the extreme scenario, we found: Gross domestic product collapse : Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced in a country within a year. It's a key indicator of economic health. We found that the value of Sudan's economy could contract by up to 42%. This means the country would be producing less than 60% of what it did before the conflict. This would affect incomes, jobs, government revenues and public services. The industrial sector – heavily concentrated in Khartoum – would be hardest hit, with output shrinking by over 50%. The value of services like education, health, transport and trade would fall by 40%, and agriculture by more than 35%. Job losses : nearly 4.6 million jobs – about half of all employment – could disappear. Urban areas and non-farm sectors would be worst affected, with over 700,000 farming jobs at risk. 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Food production must be sustained to prevent famine. restoring critical services where possible – particularly transport, trade and retail – to keep local economies functioning protecting the most vulnerable, such as women in rural areas and the elderly, through expanded social protection and targeted cash assistance. Third, prepare for recovery. The international community – donors, development banks and NGOs – must begin laying the groundwork for post-conflict reconstruction now. This includes investment in public infrastructure, rebuilding institutions and re-integrating displaced populations. The bottom line Sudan's war is more than a political crisis. It is an economic catastrophe unfolding in real time. One that is deepening poverty, destroying livelihoods and erasing years of progress. Our research provides hard numbers to describe what Sudanese families are already experiencing every day. The country's economy is bleeding. 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The Citizen
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Hamas delegation travels to Turkey as Gaza ceasefire talks falter
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