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The National
4 hours ago
- The National
The UK is losing its millionaires, even if it's not sure how many
One of the hidden traps in dealing with British markets is that the basic set-up is seldom as straightforward as it appears. That is becoming more apparent every day in the fraught debate over a reported billionaire exodus. This phenomenon was first triggered by Brexit, compounded by the Ukraine war and then moved into overdrive by the targeting of non-domiciled tax residents, followed by the abolition of the advantageous status altogether. There are no good figures in this trend. Where there are statistics, these are overlapping and incomplete. In recent weeks, a number of analysts have started to conclude that the rush to the exits is overblown and quite possibly largely bunkum. Something is definitely going on that appears to sum up the UK's decline as an attractive economy, but its impact may not be that easy to properly gauge. The golden passport firm Henley and Partners predicted that 16,500 people would quit the UK this year alone. The non-domiciled population in the UK was 74,000 when the advantageous status was abolished. Official budget planners expected a quarter of that number to quit the UK as a result of the changes, which is just over 18,000. Surveys then suggested that this exodus was being boosted by a large chunk of the country's dollar millionaires. Prominent leavers reportedly included Nassef Sawiris, the Egyptian tycoon; Shravin Bharti Mittal, the Indian businessman; John Fredriksen, the Cypriot shipping magnate; and Richard Gnodde, the South African-born vice president of Goldman Sachs. Mr Fredriksen, who told a Norwegian newspaper that Britain had 'gone to hell', was said to be putting his £250 million ($332 million) Chelsea mansion – The Old Rectory – on the market. In truth, the 'hell' that matters is the budget deficit. Much like US President Donald Trump and his tariffs raid, the UK government is searching for novel areas to tax in order to make up the fiscal gap. The governing Labour party has clearly decided that a form of wealth taxation is its way of plugging a shortfall that seems only likely to widen as AI is brought into the economy. The missing figure that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves appears to be aiming for is $45 billion annually. A modern, mobile population has options. They can move themselves, their asset base and ultimately their investment income out of the country. The report for Henley and Partners faced debunking last week from the lawyer Dan Neidle, for putting the total number of UK dollar millionaires at about 578,000. Its figures relied on the scraping of social media and other inventive data capture techniques to get the numbers it reported. However, the UK's Office for National Statistics suggests that the number in its surveys is about 300,000. And that is part of the problem: the state is using surveys, too. The UK system has no way of knowing how many millionaires are in the country. The government cannot peer even into every bank account let alone estimate any other holdings. When a viral video went around recently suggesting that the UK was triggering checks on people leaving the country, the suggestion was that authorities were rattled by the exodus and going to turn the taxman's gaze on the richer in this way. But no such checks are possible for the reasons above. And in any case, the UK does not record when people fly out, only when they enter the country. In truth, the 'hell' that matters is the budget deficit But wait, there is more. Beauchamp Estates, the very high-end property broker active in places like Knightsbridge, Mayfair and Belgravia, says that there's been a twist in the saga. In the first half of this year, it confirms that those involved in the 27 sales of properties were former non-doms and the majority of those left to relocate to Dubai as their prime primary residence. It noted that the market has speeded up since March. It also said that there is a clear trend of 'house-swapping' where people selling to move to the UAE are selling to buyers from the Gulf. Alongside buyers from North America, these two groups make up more than half the market in London. Some of the buyers in the pipeline are willing to pay up to £150 million. Experts suggest that what is really hurting the UK government in its wealth tax drive is the imposition of inheritance tax on the estates of the wealthy. That is an emotional issue that even saw Mr Trump give Prime Minister Keir Starmer a lecture on the 'death tax' when they met in Scotland last week. Pragmatic consideration should now force a rethink. The UK government won't, in the end, be able to tax what is no longer there. The figure for the number of people moving in this trend are, as we see, highly uncertain. But the high-profile examples given above tell a tale. Before it is too late, the Chancellor should recognise what Beauchamps detects; that the UK market has real and enduring appeal. Dislocation happens every now and then in a market that is deep and liquid. It is not too late to find more subtle ways to manage upwards the tax take from a dynamic economy that is popular with wealth creators. London, for example, is still a platform for global wealth. For her part, Ms Reeves is trying to make investing in the UK even more attractive. Starving the supply of sensational headlines about the exodus of the rich, when something more nuanced is actually taking place, would be a good place to start.
The National
6 hours ago
- The National
UK to recruit hundreds of officers to smash Kurdish smuggling gangs
Hundreds of new law enforcement officers are to be recruited by the UK in a bid to tackle people smuggling gangs based in the Middle East, including in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region, who are bringing migrants across the English Channel in small boats. The Home Office has announced a £100 million ($133 million) spending package which will also fund the start of the new 'one-in, one out' agreement with France to deport migrants who come by boat in return for allowing those with an approved asylum claim to enter Britain. The National Crime Agency will see an additional 300 officers who will target smuggling kingpins and aim to disrupt their criminal operations across the Middle East, as well as Africa and Europe, said the Home Office. These new resources will partly go towards work being done in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region − an area where the NCA has been active − a Home Office source told The National. It comes as Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour government is grappling with the charged issue of migration, as protests continue outside hotels in central London and elsewhere that are housing asylum seekers. The announcement is part of the pledge by Mr Starmer to 'smash the gangs' of people smugglers to deal with record numbers of migrants arriving by small boats, a figure that has already topped 25,000 this year. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper signed an agreement with the government of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region at the end of last year which has seen NCA officers operating for the first time in an area that has become a centre for the people smuggling industry. NCA officers were involved in an operation to arrest suspected people smugglers allegedly linked to the same network as Amanj Hassan Zada, a UK-based human trafficker who was sentenced to 17 years in jail in November. A Home Office source told The National the funding and officers will 'absolutely' go towards the work being done in the region. which is a 'big part of the NCA's work'. Announcing the new officers and measures, Ms Cooper said: 'For six years, the small boat smuggling gangs were allowed to embed their criminal trade along our coast, and have shown a ruthless ability to adapt their tactics and maximise their profits, no matter how many lives they put at risk. 'They must not be allowed to get away with this vile crime. Now this additional funding will strengthen every aspect of our plan, and will turbocharge the ability of our law enforcement agencies to track the gangs and bring them down, working with our partners overseas, and using state-of-the-art technology and equipment.' The new money will be spent on hi-tech surveillance capabilities and AI-assisted intelligence and data analysis tools. It will also go towards funding police powers to seize digital devices and download data to gather evidence and intelligence, which was announced as part of the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill. Anyone who advertises small boat crossings or fake passports on social media could be face up to five years in prison under a new offence to be introduced under the legislation. As part of the drive to reduce migration, the UK is also to clamp down on foreign students claiming asylum as their visas come to an end. An announcement is expected in the coming weeks regarding a clampdown on universities accepting foreign students who are using the study visa route as a way into the UK but then claim asylum or fail to take up their place. In its work tackling smuggling gangs the NCA has also been working to disrupt the supply of small boats coming from Turkey to the shores of northern France. Working with local law enforcement, its officers seized 25 boats capable of carrying 1,500 people at a border crossing in Bulgaria, which is on the major route used to transport the vessels. NCA director general of operations Rob Jones Director General of Operations Rob Jones said the organisation is focused 'on making the biggest impact on organised crime groups behind these lethal crossings'. 'We currently have 91 investigations continuing into the most dangerous people smuggling networks impacting the UK, and are working with partners at home and abroad to target, disrupt and dismantle them,' he said. But the opposition Conservatives described the new funding announcement as a 'desperate grab for headlines which will make no real difference'. Shadow home secretary Chris Philp said: 'Labour has failed and their laughable claim to smash the gangs lies in tatters. They have no serious plan, just excuses, while ruthless criminal gangs flood our borders with illegal immigrants.' 'The British public deserves real action, not empty slogans and tinkering at the edges. Immediate detention, rapid removal and shutting down these illegal networks for good.' Meanwhile, the government has moved to reduce the number of 16,000 asylum claims made by foreign students who had come to the UK legally on a study visa. Universities will be penalised if fewer than 95 per cent of international students accepted on a course start their studies or fewer than 90 per cent continue to the end.
The National
7 hours ago
- The National
Egyptians head to polls for Senate vote amid limited opposition presence
Egyptians began voting on Monday in elections for the Senate, the upper chamber of parliament, with the political landscape characterised by pro-government party dominance and limited opposition. The two-day vote will determine 200 out of the chamber's 300 seats, with the remaining 100 to be appointed directly by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. Much of the election's focus has centred on the 'National List for Egypt ', a coalition of 13 political parties aligned with the government, including the dominant Mostaqbal Watan (Nation's Future) party. Out of the 200 seats, 100 are kept for individual candidates and the remainder are expected to be secured by the so-called closed list vote, in which the coalition of parties are putting members forward. It includes both long-standing opposition parties, such as the liberal Wafd party and the leftist Tagamoa, and newer parties such as the National Front, which is led by the former housing minister Essam El Gazzar and backed by businessman Ibrahim Al Organi, a close ally of the President. Beyond the party list, a total of 428 candidates are competing for the individual seats, including 186 independents and 242 party-affiliated candidates. The election is taking place under judicial supervision in nearly 9,000 polling stations across the country. The results are expected to be announced on August 12, with any necessary run-offs to follow later this month. Should there be any need to recount, the final vote will be announced on September 4. The Senate is largely seen as symbolic. It does not hold legislative authority but serves in an advisory capacity. It reviews constitutional amendments, laws, and policies before passing them to the more powerful House of Representatives, where pro-government forces also dominate. The Senate used to be called the Shura Council before its abolition in 2014 during Mr El Sisi's first term. The chamber was revived as the Senate in 2019 under a series of constitutional reforms. The Senate will convene for a five-year term, with its first session expected after all results are finalised. Despite a heated promotion campaign from the government and from senators whose banners can be seen hanging all over Cairo's districts, rich and poor, there is little to no interest in the election among the people and only brief mentions of it in local press, both pro and anti-government. Mr El Sisi and Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly cast their votes during televised ceremonies on Monday morning, as did a number of other government ministers and the Grand Mufti. The Egyptian government launched a national dialogue in 2022 to engage opposition voices. However, rights groups say political freedom remains tightly restricted, with tens of thousands of political prisoners still detained. Meanwhile, attention will soon shift to the upcoming House of Representatives elections, scheduled for November, which will complete Egypt's latest electoral cycle.
