Peso Weakens Further, Offering Relief to Overseas Filipino Workers
Analysts attribute the peso's decline to a combination of domestic and international factors. Domestically, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas implemented a series of interest rate cuts in 2024, totaling 75 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 5.75%. These cuts aimed to stimulate economic growth but also widened the interest rate differential with the US, exerting downward pressure on the peso. BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. indicated that the central bank has been more active in the foreign exchange market, intervening modestly to manage volatility.
Internationally, the US dollar has exhibited strength due to cautious monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. While the Fed is expected to commence rate cuts by mid-2025, the timing and magnitude remain uncertain. This uncertainty contributes to the peso's volatility. Jonathan Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., noted that the peso's weakness could persist amid global economic uncertainties and domestic policy challenges.
The Philippine government's economic outlook reflects these challenges. The growth target for 2024 has been adjusted to a range of 6.0% to 6.5%, down from a previous upper limit of 7%. For 2025-2028, the growth target has been revised to 6.0% to 8.0%. The peso is expected to average between 57 to 57.50 per dollar in 2024, with projections of 56 to 58 per dollar for 2025. Inflation assumptions have also been adjusted, with a range of 3.1% to 3.3% for 2024 and 2.0% to 4.0% for … -202 … .
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Despite the peso's depreciation, investor sentiment towards the currency has shown signs of improvement. A Reuters poll indicates that long positions on the Philippine peso have reached their highest levels since mid-September. Analysts suggest that the peso is relatively insulated from global tariff threats compared to other Southeast Asian currencies. However, the currency's performance remains sensitive to global risk sentiment and trade policy developments.
For OFWs, the weaker peso translates to increased value for remittances. This development is particularly beneficial for families in the Philippines who rely on these funds for daily expenses, education, and healthcare. The enhanced purchasing power can alleviate financial pressures amid rising costs of living.
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