Are 'High-Volatility' Bengals A Good Bet To Make AFC Title Game?
Star quarterback Joe Burrow played at an MVP level and the offense scored the fifth-most touchdowns in football, but a lousy defense and miserable record in one-score games kept Cincinnati out of the postseason at 9-8.
Trouble greeted the Bengals right away with a Week 1 home loss to the four-win New England Patriots, and they proceeded to lose seven of their first eight one-score games. They also lost four times when scoring 30 points.
That's almost an impossible feat.
So now what?
Well, Cincinnati is running it back on offense with Burrow, receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and running back Chase Brown.
Burrow and Chase are the most lethal QB to WR combo in the league and that's a good place to start. Last year, Burrow threw for 4,918 yards with 49 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while Chase exploded for 1,708 yards and 17 scores.
Assuming health, the offense will be fine.
If the Bengals miss the playoffs for the third straight season, the brunt of the responsibility will undoubtedly fall on the shoulders of the defense.
The true hope is that the new defensive coordinator, Al Golden, can solve some of the issues that betrayed the team last year. Golden was the architect of a Notre Dame defense that made it all the way to the National Championship Game of the College Football Playoff.
I'm a little more "glass half full" on Cincy's D because I like the interior guys on the defensive line, and I'm optimistic the team reaches a contract compromise with top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson, at least for 2025.
If rookie defensive end Shemar Stewart plays, that's a bonus.
"They're such a high-volatility team," one professional bettor told me. "The quarterback and skill players give them a high ceiling. If they suffer a crucial injury or two on offense and the defense is worse, they can win five games.
"The big issue is the way they start [under head coach Zac Taylor]. How do you go 0-2 almost every year in the first two games? It's alarming.
"I've still got 'em favored in 11 games."
A quick fact check confirms Cincinnati's early-season woes.
Since Taylor took over in 2019, the Bengals are 1-11 in their first two games. The only win came back in 2021, a 27-24 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings.
2019: 0-22020: 0-22021: 1-12022: 0-22023: 0-2
2024: 0-2
This year's schedule starts with Cleveland and Jacksonville.
At the end of the day, I believe Cincinnati has too much offensive ammo to ignore and odds are good the defense regresses in the right direction. It's also highly improbable the Bengals are that "unlucky" in one-score games.
I'm not crazy enough to pedestal them over the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills or Kansas City Chiefs, but it's silly to think they can't make the playoffs and go on a run at the right time with Burrow à la 2021.
My favorite move re: Cincinnati is to take them Over 9.5 wins and place a small wager on them to lose on Championship Weekend. It's a 10-1 bet that'll put you in a tremendous position if there's chaos in the AFC bracket.
PICK: Bengals Over 9.5 wins (-140)
PICK: Bengals lose in AFC title game (+1000)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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