The treaty that kept India and Pakistan in check is gone. Now what?

IOL News

07-05-2025

Paramilitary soldiers inspect the damaged building of the Government Health and Educational Complex after Indian strikes in Muridke, about 30 kilometers from Lahore, on May 7, 2025. India and Pakistan exchanged heavy artillery along their contested frontier on May 7, after New Delhi launched missile strikes on its arch-rival in a major escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
Air Marshal Anil Chopra
India launched 'Operation Sindoor' on the night of May 7, targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan in retaliation for a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgram, Kashmir last month. New Delhi stated that it hit at least nine targets.
'Our actions have been focused, measured, and non-escalatory in nature. No Pakistani military facilities have been targeted. India has demonstrated considerable restraint in the selection of targets and method of execution,' the Indian government said in a statement.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif descried the strikes as a 'cowardly' attack and said Islamabad "has every right to respond forcefully to this act of war imposed by India, and a forceful response is being given."
Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated to military actions following the killing of 26 innocent vacationers in Pahalgam, Kashmir by Pakistan-backed terrorists in a Hamas-style terror attack.
Pakistan Army and Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) links were established by India's National Investigation Agency days after the mass killing. The public was angry, and sought appropriate revenge.
A wide range of diplomatic and economic measures were announced by both nations following the attack. Remarkably, India has put the 1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance for the first time since the pact was inked by the two neighbors. Rejecting India's move to suspend the IWT, Pakistan warned that any diversion of water will be treated as an 'Act of War.' Islamabad also said that it would hold 'in abeyance' its participation in all bilateral agreements with India, including the landmark 1972 Simla Agreement.
Pakistan pledged a full-spectrum national power response to any threat against its sovereignty, put its armed forces on high alert, and began selective mobilisation. Most measures were quite expected. But by suspending the Shimla Agreement, Pakistan unwittingly handed over big advantage to India.
What is the Shimla Agreement?
The Shimla agreement between India and Pakistan was signed on July 2, 1972 at Barnes Court (Raj Bhavan) in the town of Shimla in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, between then-Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and her Pakistani counterpart Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. It was ratified on July 15, 1972 (by Pakistan), and August 3, 1972 (by India), and became effective the next day.
The agreement had come in the wake of Pakistan's comprehensive defeat in the 1971 war that split the country and created independent Bangladesh.
The agreement stated:'The Government of India and the Government of Pakistan are resolved that the two countries put an end to the conflict and confrontation that have hitherto marred their relations and work for the promotion of a friendly arid harmonious relationship and the establishment of durable peace in the sub-continent, so that both countries may henceforth devote their resources and energies to the pressing task of advancing the welfare of their peoples.'
The document was meant to lay the foundation of a peaceful and stable relationship between the two nations. It was decided that the two countries are resolved 'to settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations or by any other peaceful means mutually agreed upon between them.'
The treaty mandated that the two countries resolve issues bilaterally, and superseded the United Nation's resolution on Kashmir. Perhaps more importantly, under the agreement, India and Pakistan established the Line of Control (LoC), previously called the Ceasefire Line, making it a quasi-border between the two nations.
New Delhi succeeded in persuading Islamabad to change the name of the ceasefire line to the Line of Control (LoC), thus delinking it from the UN-imposed 1949 ceasefire line and highlighting that Kashmir was now a purely bilateral matter between India and Pakistan.
The treaty clearly stated that Indian and Pakistani forces must be withdrawn to their respective sides of the 'international border.' That in Jammu and Kashmir, the LoC resulting from the cease-fire of December 17, 1971, shall be respected by both sides without prejudice toward the recognised position of either side.
Neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations. India returned around 13,000 square kilometers of land taken in battle on the western border but retained some strategic areas, including Turtuk, Dhothang, Tyakshi, and Chalunka in Chorbat Valley, covering more than 883 square kilometers, so as to facilitate lasting peace. Both sides further agreed to refrain from the threat or the use of force in violation of the LoC.
The fact that there has only been one limited war since the agreement was signed reflects its effectiveness.
Some Indian bureaucrats later argued that a tacit agreement to convert this LoC into a international border, was reached during a one-on-one meeting between the two heads of government. Pakistani bureaucrats have denied any such thing. Nor was that acceptable to Indian public.
The Shimla agreement called on both sides to resolve all issues bilaterally. But Pakistan never respected this part of the treaty, and has taken matters to an international level, especially by doing chest-beating over Kashmir at the UN. The latest example of this attitude is Pakistan's outcry over the Abolition of Article 370 by the Narendra Modi-led government in 2019. One critical clause was that 'both shall prevent the organisation, assistance or encouragement of any acts detrimental to the maintenance of peaceful and harmonious relations.'
Pakistan has been engaging in cross-border terrorism as a foreign policy tool to bleed India and to foster separatism in Kashmir, as well as to keep the Indian Armed Forces pinned down. Some of the major Pakistan-sponsored Islamist attacks against India have included a terrorist attack on the Parliament of India in New Delhi on December 13, 2001, the attack on the Akshardham temple in Gandhinagar in 2002; the Mumbai train blasts in 2003; twin blasts at Gateway of India and Zaveri Bazaar in Mumbai in 2005, Delhi bombings and 2006 Mumbai train bombings, train blasts in Jaipur in 2008, and the tragic Mumbai attacks in November 2008.
The latest large-scale attacks occurred in Kashmir: a deadly terrorist attack on the Army camp in Uri killed 17 Indian soldiers and an attack on the military convoy in Pulwama resulted in the death of 40 personnel.