Has the 2015 NHL Draft class passed 2003 as this century's gold standard?

New York Times

3 days ago

In Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, Corey Perry flipped a no-look backhand pass to Connor McDavid, who made a perfect feed of his own, finding Leon Draisaitl for the overtime-winning goal. The pair of slick passes weren't just a highlight in the present. They also showcased members of two of the greatest draft classes ever, both of whom were still performing on hockey's biggest stage.
Advertisement
Ten years ago, the Oilers selected McDavid No. 1 at the 2015 NHL Draft. It's no surprise that the 2015 draft class still had players contributing in the Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers, who ended up winning the series, had Niko Mikkola and A.J. Greer in their lineup. Both were drafted in 2015, too. Most of the players in that class are 28, right in their primes.
Perry, though, is 40 and was drafted in 2003. That he's still playing reflects the staying power of what has long been considered the top draft class this century.
Future Hall of Famer Marc-André Fleury went No. 1 in 2003, and the first round included the likes of Eric Staal (No. 2), Ryan Getzlaf (19), Brent Burns (20) and Perry (28). Teams continued to find gems as the draft continued, from Patrice Bergeron and Shea Weber in the second round to Joe Pavelski in the seventh. Back then, the draft went nine rounds instead of seven, and even some players in the final two rounds were hits, including Dustin Byfuglien (245) and Jaroslav Halak (271).
And yet, if the 2015 draft class continues producing the way it has, it will likely supplant 2003 as the gold standard.
The individual excellence of McDavid buoys the class. None of the players picked in 2003 are top-10 players of all time, and McDavid seems bound for that territory. Still only 28, he already has three Hart Trophies (two more than the 2003 class combined), a Conn Smythe (the only one between the two classes) and has been on seven end-of-season All-Star teams. From the 2003 class, only Pavelski has a higher Game Score Value Added (55.3 compared to McDavid's 53.8), and he played nearly twice as many games.
But the 2015 class is more than just McDavid. The fact that it pairs an all-time great with incredible depth is what makes it truly special. Some — if not all — of Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen and Kirill Kaprizov will likely make the Hall of Fame, and the class features multiple more top-of-the-lineup skaters. In honor of the 10-year anniversary of the 2015 class, The Athletic re-drafted the first round, and there were still top-four defensemen (including Mikkola), middle-six forwards and starting goaltenders available after the 30 picks.
Advertisement
In total, the 2003 class has accrued 657 wins above replacement (GSVA). It likely won't accumulate too much more, though Perry, Burns and Ryan Suter could all remain in the league next season. The 2015 class is already at 450 with its top players still in their primes. Ten seasons after the 2003 draft, that class was at 387 wins, well behind where the 2015 class is now (with changes in scoring environment being taken into account by the model).
There is a caveat to that, though, that is responsible for a large chunk of 2015's lead. As analytics departments have grown league-wide, teams have become better at understanding and identifying player value. It's led to teams moving on much faster from sub-replacement level players in recent seasons. That wasn't always the case.
The 2003 class, for example, had multiple players with negative value stick around the league for more than 500 games, including Tanner Glass (-9.5 GSVA in 527 games) and Nate Thompson (-6.9 GSVA in 844 games). In all, the 2003 class had 11 players who finished their careers with a GSVA of minus-3 or worse, accounting for minus-56 wins in total. Eight of those players played 300 or more games. In contrast, the class of 2015 only has three such players: Christian Fischer, Jeremy Lauzon and Dan Vladar — without any current NHL players in striking distance.
When comparing the two classes, that's something worth remembering — some of the 2003 class's metrics suffer simply because of how general managers operated then compared to now. But even if every negative-value player is ignored, 2015 still comes out ahead after 10 seasons.
That result stems mostly from a higher quality of NHL player on average. Both 2003 and 2015 have put out a remarkable number of NHL players, generally defined as someone who has played at least 200 career games. The 2003 class had 64, and the 2015 class already has 65 with three other goalies who could potentially join. The two classes are comparable in that regard, even though 2003 had the advantage of two extra rounds. But in terms of quality, 2015 has the edge. Of those players, the 2015 class averaged 1.1 wins per 82 games compared to 0.8 for the first 10 seasons from the 2003 class.
Advertisement
Naturally, that's led by McDavid, who has averaged 6.2 wins per 82, but is also supplemented by Kaprizov (4.7), Marner (4.0), Rantanen (3.5), Sebastian Aho (3.5) and Eichel (3.1). In contrast, the 2003 class had four stars with more than three wins per 82 (Zach Parise, Perry, Getzlaf, Pavelski), but none surpassing 3.3 in their first 10 seasons.
Several players from the 2003 class showed impressive longevity that might prove difficult to beat. Bergeron is a prime example of that, earning 23.7 wins through his first 10 seasons over 739 games (2.6 wins per 82), but jumped to 27.9 wins over his final 555 games (4.1 wins per 82).
Then there's the trophy case argument, where again, 2015's resume looks stronger through the same point in time.
So far, the 2003 class has accrued 28 Stanley Cups. The Kings and Blackhawks teams in the first half of the 2010s helped significantly with that. Brent Seabrook won three with Chicago (2010, 2013 and 2015), for example, and Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown and Mike Richards were on both of Los Angeles' championship teams (2012 and 2014). Through 10 seasons (skipping the 2004-05 lockout season) the 2003 class had 21 championships, a slight edge over where 2015 currently stands (18 Stanley Cups).
McDavid (2017, 2021, 2023) and Perry (2011) are the only Hart winners in the two classes, though Kaprizov could have had a case this past season had he not gotten hurt. The 2015 class has the edge in Calder (Mathew Barzal and Kaprizov) and Conn Smythe (McDavid) wins, but the 2003 class currently has the only Norris (Burns), Vezina (Fleury) and Selke (Bergeron and Ryan Kesler) winners. But it's worth noting six of the nine individual trophy wins from the 2003 class came after the first 10 seasons post-draft.
(Note: We defined Stanley Cup winners as people with their names on the trophy.)
There's still plenty of time for the non-McDavid members of the 2015 class to add more trophies. Zach Werenski nearly did this season, finishing second in Norris voting, and Eichel and Adin Hill both had a case for the 2023 Conn Smythe. The 2015 class won't be able to come close to 2003 in Selke wins, though. Bergeron had six.
Advertisement
The 2003 class has one undisputed edge over 2015: goaltending, as evidenced by the six Jennings Trophy wins. Hill is the most accomplished goaltender in the 2015 class. He leads in save percentage (.909) and was excellent when Vegas won the Stanley Cup in 2023. Meanwhile, the 2003 class had Fleury, who won a Vezina and three Stanley Cups, as well as two-time Cup champion Corey Crawford and longtime starters Halak, Brian Elliott and Jimmy Howard. All five of those goalies had a save percentage equal to or better than Hill's .909.
Perhaps the 2015 class can bridge the gap a bit. Goalies often develop later than skaters, and Mackenzie Blackwood, Sam Montembeault and Ilya Samsonov have all started playoff games. But there's no Fleury-level goalie in that class, and the odds of the goalie class getting too close to 2003's feels minuscule.
Still, the 2015 draft class is on pace to emerge as an even better collection of talent, and it's not just because of McDavid's brilliance. When all is said and done, it will have featured more than two full rounds of NHL players, several of whom are bound for the Hall of Fame. If 2003 currently has the torch for classes this century, 2015 looks poised to snatch it.
(Top photos: Bruce Bennett and Robert Laberge / Getty Images)