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New York Times
18 hours ago
- Sport
- New York Times
The 5 biggest questions facing the Edmonton Oilers this summer
Early in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final, the Edmonton Oilers attempted a breakout. The score was tied, and the play looked routine. Although the Oilers needed a win to get the series to a decisive Game 7, the team played well through the first four minutes, and there was no need to press. As defenceman Mattias Ekholm passed the puck along the left wall inside the defensive zone, all looked fine. Leon Draisaitl was nearby to offer support, and Corey Perry was available at the blue line. Florida Panthers defenceman Aaron Ekblad pinched at the line, and rejected the pass, but Draisaitl sent a short lob back to Ekholm for a reset. Edmonton was still in good shape, 0-0 score, no danger here. Advertisement At that point, Draisaitl and Perry immediately exited the zone on a jail break. Connor McDavid, the other member of the line, was already past centre ice, all three forwards anticipating a sortie through the neutral zone and into the attacking end. It took five seconds, from turnover to Panthers goal. Five seconds. Ekholm made a poor pass, and Evan Bouchard was unable to handle it. The puck-hawk Florida forwards turned it over, and it was instantly 1-0 on an unforced error. The play stood out as an example of several things the Oilers need to improve this summer and in years to come. Here are five issues, all clear as day on a pivotal goal by Florida. Ekholm is a quality veteran and a valuable member of the Oilers. He wasn't playing his best hockey in the last two games of the final. Edmonton's management and coaching staff went with Ekholm in Game 6 despite some disturbing results in five-on-five play. If Ekholm's ability to perform at a high level was in doubt, and the Oilers' decision-makers didn't trust other options (notably Darnell Nurse or Brett Kulak), that's a problem. Ekholm is 35 and entering the final year of his contract, and the Oilers don't have a left-handed defensive phenom poised to replace him now that Philip Broberg is a member of the St. Louis Blues. Ekholm was clearly playing hurt, and the Oilers proceeded with him on the top pairing. It raises a big question about Edmonton's top pairing. The breakout by the forwards (Draisaitl and Perry) on the goal was immediate once the puck had been pushed back to Ekholm by Draisaitl. McDavid was past centre before Ekholm made the subpar pass meant for Bouchard (the NHL visualizer on the play is a fantastic overview), and the positioning of the forwards at that moment is problematic. Advertisement All three forwards were reacting to possession gained, suggesting a set play or at least the coaching preference. A jailbreak can work well, but the forwards isolated the defencemen by doing it. Once it became a battle between Bouchard and Sam Reinhart, the Oilers were in trouble. If the forwards leaping out of the zone ran counter to the coaching staff's preference, it's a different problem. If it's a planned outbreak, a more conservative approach (breaking out as a five-man unit) should be an easy fix. The Oilers aren't brilliant defensively, especially against the Panthers. More support is required. The play described above must have looked like a biblical parting of the defensive sea from Stuart Skinner's vantage point. From what should have been a routine pass to a fumble and a turnover, it was all poor defending. It left Skinner with a lot to guess on as Reinhart moved toward the net. If the Oilers are going to play a pure offensive style, and it makes sense with McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard, then investing in a strong goaltending tandem makes sense. It also means a higher spend at the position. Edmonton's investment in goaltending during the Ken Holland era (2019-2024) was frugal, and last season (Stan Bowman's first as general manager) the club used less than $4 million in cap money for the position. The play for Bowman is to make more room for a goaltender partner to match with Skinner. He's young, has extensive NHL playoff experience and remains a goaltender who can get hot in key situations (the series against the Dallas Stars in the 2024 and 2025 playoffs are examples). If the Oilers choose a free agent (like Jake Allen) or trade for a significant stopper, the coaching staff can split the regular-season work and go with the hot hand in the postseason. The Vancouver Canucks are an example of a team who always have two strong options. Advertisement Edmonton would be wise to adopt a similar plan. It's going to be expensive. Perry was the right winger on the top line during the goal in question by Reinhart. Edmonton's right wing depth chart featured Zach Hyman all year, and through most of the playoffs. He was injured in the Dallas series, and the 40-year-old Perry emerged as the best option. That isn't acceptable. The Oilers spend to the cap, and owner Daryl Katz has done so for many years. How did the Oilers land in such a situation? It's complicated and involves a disappointing season by veteran Viktor Arvidsson and inconsistent scoring from Connor Brown. The club used the waiver wire to pick up Kasperi Kapanen, who performed well on the wing and at centre. None of the options were superior to Perry in the final game of the season, and his presence on the top line at that moment should be a red flag for the organization. The NHL roster spent last season hermetically sealed, with recalls from the AHL Bakersfield Condors a rare item. The team's top prospect, right winger Matt Savoie, played just four games (recording one assist) before being dispatched to the minors. Edmonton needed a right-handed centre all season, but Noah Philp played just 15 games with the team. Quinn Hutson was signed out of college and dressed for two games but barely played. Goalie prospect Olivier Rodrigue also saw just two games. The club did recall veterans like Drake Caggiula, but precious development opportunities were missed. If Savoie had been brought along more aggressively, playing in 30-40 regular-season games, plus getting some playoff experience, the organization would have a better idea about him today. In fact, if Savoie had thrived during the regular season, Edmonton may have been able to consider him as an option for play after Hyman went down with injury during the Stars' series, or as a replacement for the ineffective Arvidsson. Advertisement That goal, that single moment in time during Game 6, exposed several areas the Oilers need to address. Playing veterans who are clearly not 100 percent, questionable breakouts when there is no need for desperate measures, devoting very little cap to goaltending while needing brilliant consistency due to an offence-first roster, having enough skill on the wings to survive an injury, and playing youth enough to get an idea about what they can be in the future. No matter the names of the new recruits Bowman will procure, those five questions need answers before the fall.
Edmonton Journal
2 days ago
- Business
- Edmonton Journal
Why the Edmonton Oilers will Kick or keep Kasperi Kapanen
Article content Show me the money. With Leon Draisaitl's new contract about to kick in and a deal needing to be done for RFA Evan Bouchard, the Edmonton Oilers need to grind hard to fill out their roster for 2025-26.
New York Times
3 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
NHL trade grades: Canucks make desperate bet on Evander Kane as Oilers get out of a jam
Vancouver Canucks get: F Evander Kane Edmonton Oilers get: 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 117) (The Oilers retained none of Kane's salary.) Shayna Goldman: If the Oilers are going to get better, management has to make subtractions. Leon Draisaitl's extension kicks in on July 1 and comes with a $5.5 million cap hit bump. There is the Evan Bouchard contract situation to navigate, and Connor McDavid is up for a new deal in 2025-26. If those aren't enough rising costs, Edmonton still has to find a way to improve around those three core players. The Oilers need more scoring wingers and help in goal. Advertisement In theory, Kane could have been one of those scoring wingers for 2025-26, after he missed the entire 2024-25 regular season with injuries. He scored six goals and 12 points in 21 playoff games. Maybe the most impressive part is that 11 of 12 points were scored at five-on-five, which ranked 12th in the league. The problem is that offense can't be counted on consistently enough, his defense is shaky and there are disciplinary issues. In the Stanley Cup Final alone, Kane took seven minor penalties — five in the first period, five in the offensive zone. While that didn't necessarily cost the Oilers the series, it certainly contributed to their downfall. At the end of that day, that offense generally doesn't outweigh all of the downsides that he brings to the table, and it's not worth that much precious cap space, either. The 33-year-old takes up $5.1 million on the books, when his market value is closer to $3.7 million. Every cent matters in Edmonton right now. While this now gives management the task of replacing his production in a growing cap world, there's more flexibility to do it. The fact that the Oilers managed to clear that space entirely without having to pay another team is actually remarkable. Edmonton should have had to attach a pick as a sweetener, instead of gaining a fourth-rounder in return. Trading a fourth-round for scoring depth isn't some back-breaking cost for the Canucks, in a vacuum. But making this bet is a choice. Yes, the Canucks need more scoring depth in the top nine, and Kane could be extra motivated in a contract year, especially if he has a healthy offseason to train. But at what cost? The team should have kept that $5.1 million in cap space open in free agency, and then, if they struck out, considered Kane as a fallback option. The locker room fit is the most curious part of it. Last year's drama derailed the Canucks' season, and put an abrupt stop to all the progress made in 2023-24. So why would management welcome any potential distraction that could negatively impact the chemistry this group is trying to rebuild? Advertisement Canucks grade: D Oilers grade: A- Sean Gentille: One of the bigger story lines of the offseason — not the biggest, but somewhere toward the top of the list — was the question of who'd bail out the Oilers. Front offices, the vast majority of the time, can find a partner willing to help them out of a jam or three. The identity of the guardian angel, though, was TBD. Now, six days before free agency begins, we have our answer. Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin's fruit basket from Stan Bowman, we can only assume, is headed out with Wednesday's mail. Bowman, trying to balance the challenge of hammering out an eight-figure extension with his No. 1 defenseman (Bouchard) and finding a way to improve a roster that's run into the same roadblock in consecutive seasons, just cleared out $5.125 in the easiest imaginable fashion. No fuss, no muss. To some extent, Bowman will have to replace some goals. Kane, for the last chunk of his career, could be counted upon to score at a pace of 25 per season or thereabouts. He's nearly 34 now, though, coming off a regular season spent (for one reason or another) recovering from a series of nasty-sounding abdominal injuries. All that, combined with a 21-game postseason top-lined by 44 minutes spent in the penalty box, made his cap hit untenable for a team in any sort of cap crunch. Aging, expensive third-liners whose value, even at their peaks, came almost solely from goal-scoring are … not the most economical players to carry. Bowman did well here. Now, he figures to have $5 million or so — could be more, could be less — to play with once Bouchard's deal is done. And hey, maybe someone takes Viktor Arvidsson off his hands, too. On to the next one. The Canucks, meanwhile, seemed to start the summer in desperation mode, and trading for Kane certainly fits the bill. If he's at his best, he'll help — and every bit of that counts for a team sweatily trying to convince Quinn Hughes that they're worth another long-term deal — but he's almost certainly not going to help enough. This is a team that on Tuesday needed a top-six center and a top-line winger. They still do, and now, they have less cap space to help them in their quest. Oilers: A Canucks: D
New York Times
3 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Has the 2015 NHL Draft class passed 2003 as this century's gold standard?
In Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, Corey Perry flipped a no-look backhand pass to Connor McDavid, who made a perfect feed of his own, finding Leon Draisaitl for the overtime-winning goal. The pair of slick passes weren't just a highlight in the present. They also showcased members of two of the greatest draft classes ever, both of whom were still performing on hockey's biggest stage. Advertisement Ten years ago, the Oilers selected McDavid No. 1 at the 2015 NHL Draft. It's no surprise that the 2015 draft class still had players contributing in the Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers, who ended up winning the series, had Niko Mikkola and A.J. Greer in their lineup. Both were drafted in 2015, too. Most of the players in that class are 28, right in their primes. Perry, though, is 40 and was drafted in 2003. That he's still playing reflects the staying power of what has long been considered the top draft class this century. Future Hall of Famer Marc-André Fleury went No. 1 in 2003, and the first round included the likes of Eric Staal (No. 2), Ryan Getzlaf (19), Brent Burns (20) and Perry (28). Teams continued to find gems as the draft continued, from Patrice Bergeron and Shea Weber in the second round to Joe Pavelski in the seventh. Back then, the draft went nine rounds instead of seven, and even some players in the final two rounds were hits, including Dustin Byfuglien (245) and Jaroslav Halak (271). And yet, if the 2015 draft class continues producing the way it has, it will likely supplant 2003 as the gold standard. The individual excellence of McDavid buoys the class. None of the players picked in 2003 are top-10 players of all time, and McDavid seems bound for that territory. Still only 28, he already has three Hart Trophies (two more than the 2003 class combined), a Conn Smythe (the only one between the two classes) and has been on seven end-of-season All-Star teams. From the 2003 class, only Pavelski has a higher Game Score Value Added (55.3 compared to McDavid's 53.8), and he played nearly twice as many games. But the 2015 class is more than just McDavid. The fact that it pairs an all-time great with incredible depth is what makes it truly special. Some — if not all — of Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen and Kirill Kaprizov will likely make the Hall of Fame, and the class features multiple more top-of-the-lineup skaters. In honor of the 10-year anniversary of the 2015 class, The Athletic re-drafted the first round, and there were still top-four defensemen (including Mikkola), middle-six forwards and starting goaltenders available after the 30 picks. Advertisement In total, the 2003 class has accrued 657 wins above replacement (GSVA). It likely won't accumulate too much more, though Perry, Burns and Ryan Suter could all remain in the league next season. The 2015 class is already at 450 with its top players still in their primes. Ten seasons after the 2003 draft, that class was at 387 wins, well behind where the 2015 class is now (with changes in scoring environment being taken into account by the model). There is a caveat to that, though, that is responsible for a large chunk of 2015's lead. As analytics departments have grown league-wide, teams have become better at understanding and identifying player value. It's led to teams moving on much faster from sub-replacement level players in recent seasons. That wasn't always the case. The 2003 class, for example, had multiple players with negative value stick around the league for more than 500 games, including Tanner Glass (-9.5 GSVA in 527 games) and Nate Thompson (-6.9 GSVA in 844 games). In all, the 2003 class had 11 players who finished their careers with a GSVA of minus-3 or worse, accounting for minus-56 wins in total. Eight of those players played 300 or more games. In contrast, the class of 2015 only has three such players: Christian Fischer, Jeremy Lauzon and Dan Vladar — without any current NHL players in striking distance. When comparing the two classes, that's something worth remembering — some of the 2003 class's metrics suffer simply because of how general managers operated then compared to now. But even if every negative-value player is ignored, 2015 still comes out ahead after 10 seasons. That result stems mostly from a higher quality of NHL player on average. Both 2003 and 2015 have put out a remarkable number of NHL players, generally defined as someone who has played at least 200 career games. The 2003 class had 64, and the 2015 class already has 65 with three other goalies who could potentially join. The two classes are comparable in that regard, even though 2003 had the advantage of two extra rounds. But in terms of quality, 2015 has the edge. Of those players, the 2015 class averaged 1.1 wins per 82 games compared to 0.8 for the first 10 seasons from the 2003 class. Advertisement Naturally, that's led by McDavid, who has averaged 6.2 wins per 82, but is also supplemented by Kaprizov (4.7), Marner (4.0), Rantanen (3.5), Sebastian Aho (3.5) and Eichel (3.1). In contrast, the 2003 class had four stars with more than three wins per 82 (Zach Parise, Perry, Getzlaf, Pavelski), but none surpassing 3.3 in their first 10 seasons. Several players from the 2003 class showed impressive longevity that might prove difficult to beat. Bergeron is a prime example of that, earning 23.7 wins through his first 10 seasons over 739 games (2.6 wins per 82), but jumped to 27.9 wins over his final 555 games (4.1 wins per 82). Then there's the trophy case argument, where again, 2015's resume looks stronger through the same point in time. So far, the 2003 class has accrued 28 Stanley Cups. The Kings and Blackhawks teams in the first half of the 2010s helped significantly with that. Brent Seabrook won three with Chicago (2010, 2013 and 2015), for example, and Jeff Carter, Dustin Brown and Mike Richards were on both of Los Angeles' championship teams (2012 and 2014). Through 10 seasons (skipping the 2004-05 lockout season) the 2003 class had 21 championships, a slight edge over where 2015 currently stands (18 Stanley Cups). McDavid (2017, 2021, 2023) and Perry (2011) are the only Hart winners in the two classes, though Kaprizov could have had a case this past season had he not gotten hurt. The 2015 class has the edge in Calder (Mathew Barzal and Kaprizov) and Conn Smythe (McDavid) wins, but the 2003 class currently has the only Norris (Burns), Vezina (Fleury) and Selke (Bergeron and Ryan Kesler) winners. But it's worth noting six of the nine individual trophy wins from the 2003 class came after the first 10 seasons post-draft. (Note: We defined Stanley Cup winners as people with their names on the trophy.) There's still plenty of time for the non-McDavid members of the 2015 class to add more trophies. Zach Werenski nearly did this season, finishing second in Norris voting, and Eichel and Adin Hill both had a case for the 2023 Conn Smythe. The 2015 class won't be able to come close to 2003 in Selke wins, though. Bergeron had six. Advertisement The 2003 class has one undisputed edge over 2015: goaltending, as evidenced by the six Jennings Trophy wins. Hill is the most accomplished goaltender in the 2015 class. He leads in save percentage (.909) and was excellent when Vegas won the Stanley Cup in 2023. Meanwhile, the 2003 class had Fleury, who won a Vezina and three Stanley Cups, as well as two-time Cup champion Corey Crawford and longtime starters Halak, Brian Elliott and Jimmy Howard. All five of those goalies had a save percentage equal to or better than Hill's .909. Perhaps the 2015 class can bridge the gap a bit. Goalies often develop later than skaters, and Mackenzie Blackwood, Sam Montembeault and Ilya Samsonov have all started playoff games. But there's no Fleury-level goalie in that class, and the odds of the goalie class getting too close to 2003's feels minuscule. Still, the 2015 draft class is on pace to emerge as an even better collection of talent, and it's not just because of McDavid's brilliance. When all is said and done, it will have featured more than two full rounds of NHL players, several of whom are bound for the Hall of Fame. If 2003 currently has the torch for classes this century, 2015 looks poised to snatch it. (Top photos: Bruce Bennett and Robert Laberge / Getty Images)
Calgary Herald
4 days ago
- Sport
- Calgary Herald
Slim pickings: Edmonton Oilers selecting late, sparsely at this year's NHL Draft
The NHL draft may be the lifeline for some rebuilding teams like Philadelphia or Buffalo, or retooling-on-the-fly clubs like Nashville, but when you're in the Connor McDavid -Leon Draisaitl win-at-all-costs mode here, the draft is pretty much an afterthought. Article content How much of one? The Edmonton Oilers ' first pick June 27-28, barring a trade, will be No. 83. They have never, since their first draft in 1979, had a first selection this late. Let us hope the Oilers' scouts are well fed so they don't fall asleep. Article content Article content Until now, the pick of OHL defenceman Beau Akey (56) in 2023 was as far back from the first round as you could find. The 2025 third-rounder (83) is from the St. Louis Blues, compensation for foolishly not matching the $2.29m AAV offer sheet for winger Dylan Holloway last August. To compound things, after No. 83, they don't pick again until 191 (sixth-round), then 223, the second-last name called in the entire draft. Article content Article content Now, the Oilers did find defencemen Mike Kesselring and John Marino (both now in Utah) with their sixth-round selections over the last 10 years and also got Vincent Desharnais (now in San Jose) in the seventh in 2016, along with centre Kyle Brodziak way back in 2003. But way more swings and misses. Article content Yes, they've had just three picks in a draft before. It happened in 2023 when they chose Akey, goalie Nathaniel Day (184) and centre Matt Copponi (2016). But, three picks is the fewest they've ever had. Now, maybe they trade Evander Kane and/or Viktor Arvidsson for draft picks between now and the draft because of cap problems, but for now, it's pretty barren stuff if you are an Oiler scout. Article content Article content The Colorado Avalanche, in the same window for winning with Nate MacKinnon and Cale Makar, two of the best 10 players in the world, have just two picks later this June. The Blues have three, as well. To put that in perspective, Nashville has three picks in round one, same with the Flyers. And, before you ask, the Cup champion Florida Panthers have six 2025 selections but none until round 4, but with two straight Cups, and able to trade their way into continued strength, who cares, eh? Article content Article content So this Friday, when the NHL's two-day decentralized draft is in Los Angeles at the 7,100-seat Peacock Theatre, across from Arena, the Oilers personnel will be hunkered down at Rogers Place rather than sitting at big tables on the noisy, interesting draft floor along with all the other teams at an NHL rink. They will have a designated team rep at the Peacock Theatre, which has had Emmy and Grammy award shows in the past, but the scouts and braintrust will be off-site.
