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Search continues for missing girls as Texas flood deaths rise

Search continues for missing girls as Texas flood deaths rise

Reuters21 hours ago
Texas rescuers continued a frantic search on Saturday (July 5) for dozens of campers, vacationers and residents who were still missing following flash floods, as authorities said the confirmed death toll had risen to at least 43 people, including 15 children.
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Texas floods reveal limitations of disaster forecasting under climate crisis
Texas floods reveal limitations of disaster forecasting under climate crisis

The Guardian

time32 minutes ago

  • The Guardian

Texas floods reveal limitations of disaster forecasting under climate crisis

The ongoing challenges of forecasting extreme weather during the era of the climate crisis have been brought to the fore again amid catastrophic flash flooding in the 'hill country' region of Texas. As of early Sunday, hundreds of rescuers are searching for at least 12 people still missing as rains taper off outside of San Antonio and Austin. Hundreds of people have already been pulled from floodwaters that have killed nearly 70 people so far, many of them children at a summer camp along the banks of the Guadalupe River. July is peak flash flood season in the US, and central Texas is known as 'flash flood alley' because the necessary ingredients of tropical moisture and slow-moving storms come together often over hilly terrain there. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters caution that more floods could come this weekend and into next week. The scale of this latest climate disaster became apparent on Saturday as drone footage taken on Saturday morning showed entire neighborhoods inundated and rushing waters streaming through small town streets. Tales of survival and heartbreak were plentiful. An initial analysis of the downpours and the decisions by forecasters that led up to them by the Guardian shows that rainfall of this magnitude was exceedingly rare and difficult to predict, even for this flood-prone region. Friday's totals of more than 10in (25cm) of rain in three hours could be expected just once in a 'typical' 500-year period for Kerrville, Texas – three months' worth of rain in just a few hours. Radar data show that more than 4in per hour fell during the peak of Friday's rains. That rainfall intensity was in excess of a similar flash flood in 1987 that also ended in tragedy for campers along the Guadalupe. Saturday's rainfall totals actually exceeded Friday's rainfall for a region slightly north of Friday's peak rains. Nearly 14in of rain fell in five hours just west of Austin, Texas – rains that would be expected just once in nearly 1,000 years given a stable climate. Despite funding cuts and widespread staffing shortages implemented by the Trump administration, NWS forecasters in both the local San Angelo and Austin/San Antonio offices, and at the NWS national specialty center responsible for excessive rainfall provided a series of watches and warnings in the days and hours leading up to Friday's flooding disaster. An NWS source confirmed to the Guardian that the forecast office in San Angelo, where the heaviest rains fell, has two current vacancies – the meteorologist-in-charge, who leads each NWS office, and the staff hydrologist, who helps make decisions about flood threats. Additionally, the NWS office in Austin/San Antonio — which has primary responsibility for Kerr County — is missing a warning coordination officer, a leadership position whose primary function is to be a decision-making point of contact for local officials and the general public, especially during dangerous weather. Although these positions are vacant, both offices had additional staff working the night shifts on 4 July that performed similar duties. The total staff vacancies at these offices are typical for the pre-Trump era and fewer than the current average staff shortage across the NWS. The local offices have also not been experiencing any lapses in weather balloon data collection that have plagued some other offices. In fact, weather balloon data gathered on Thursday from nearby Del Rio showed record amounts of moisture present in the upper atmosphere above central Texas and added to the confidence that severe flash flooding was possible. The Austin/San Antonio office then began issuing a series of flood watches starting on Thursday afternoon that cautioned the region to prepare for 'excessive runoff' from '5 to 7 inches of rain'. The NWS's Weather Prediction Center, based in College Park, Maryland, also issued a series of mesoscale precipitation discussions on Thursday – highly detailed advance notices to other weather forecasters that a particularly rare event might be underway. In one of the discussions, forecasters noted that moisture content in central Texas was 'above the 99th climatological percentile' – far in excess of normal and a clue that historic flooding was possible. In a final escalation, the NWS office in Austin/San Antonio issued a flash flood emergency about an hour before the water started rapidly rising beyond flood stage at the closest US Geological Survey river monitoring gauge. A flash flood emergency is the highest level of flood warning available to the NWS, and sufficient to set off the Wireless Emergency Alert system, which would have triggered cellphone alarms in the region. The National Weather Service issued dozens of additional flash flood warnings throughout the day on Friday and Saturday after the second wave of extremely heavy rains compounded the flooding's scope across central Texas during the early morning hours. Even though watches and warnings were issued on time throughout the disaster – contrasting what local officials have said in press conferences – rainfall totals specified in the first flash flood watch were about half of what ultimately fell. Current weather forecasting technology is capable of knowing that near-record rainfall may occur somewhere in a given region about a day in advance, but knowing exactly how much and in which part of a specific river's drainage basin over hilly terrain makes flood forecasting much more difficult – analogous to prediction exactly which neighborhood a tornado might strike a day ahead of time. Donald Trump's staffing cuts have particularly hit the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Environmental Modeling Center, which aims to improve the skill of these types of difficult forecasts. Though it's unclear to what extent staffing shortages across the NWS complicated the advance notice that local officials had of an impending flooding disaster, it's clear that this was a complex, compound tragedy of a type that climate warming is making more frequent. Rainfall intensity in central Texas has been trending upward for decades, and this week's rains were enhanced by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in northern Mexico last week. Barry's circulation pulled record amounts of atmospheric moisture up to central Texas from the near-record warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The mix of Barry's circulation and climate warming helped create conditions of record-high atmospheric moisture content over central Texas – in line with the trend towards increasing atmospheric moisture content globally as the world warms and the air can hold more water vapor.

Why did deadly Texas floods catch people by surprise?
Why did deadly Texas floods catch people by surprise?

Sky News

timean hour ago

  • Sky News

Why did deadly Texas floods catch people by surprise?

Questions have been raised over extreme weather warnings in Texas, after heavy rain caused fatal flash floods along the Guadalupe River. At least 82 people have died from the flooding in Texas, with at least 41 people still missing, including at least 10 girls from Camp Mystic in Kerr County. Local and federal officials have come under fire over flood preparations, and why people were not warned of the risks sooner. What happened? As much as 10ins (25cm) of heavy rain fell in just a few hours overnight in central Kerr County on Friday, causing the banks of the Guadalupe River to burst at around 4am local time. Homes and vehicles were swept away by the downpour - equivalent to months' worth of rain, while 27 girls staying at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along the river, went missing when the fast-rising floodwaters hit. At least 82 people have died in the flash flooding, including: • At least 68 people - 28 children and 40 adults - in Kerr County, • Two people in Kendall County, • At least six people in Travis County, • At least four in Burnet County 1:20 What flood warnings were there? Private forecasting company AccuWeather said it and the National Weather Service (NWS) sent warnings about potential flash flooding hours before it began, urging people to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone areas. The NWS also issued flash flood emergencies - a rare alert notifying of imminent danger - at 4.23am local time. In a statement, AccuWeather said that "these warnings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety". It also called Texas Hill County one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the US because of its terrain and many water crossings. However, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management Nim Kidd said that one NWS forecast earlier in the week had called for up to six inches of rain. "It did not predict the amount of rain that we saw," he said. Were they enough? Locals have told various news agencies that while there had been phone alerts late into the night, forecasts headed into Friday evening did not predict the extreme conditions. Christopher Flowers, who was staying at a friend's house along the river when the flooding started, told the Reuters news agency: "What they need is some kind of external system, like a tornado warning that tells people to get out now." Kerrville resident Darryl Huffman told Sky's US partner network NBC News that he did not believe the storm would pose such danger before its arrival. "I looked out the window and it was barely sprinkling outside," he said, "so I had no indication that the river was going to be right outside my driveway". Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, said it appeared evacuations and other proactive measures could have been undertaken to reduce the risk of fatalities. He said in a statement: "People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast." Separately, the NWS's union told NBC News the agency's offices in central Texas were well-staffed and had issued timely warnings, "giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met". What have officials said? Local and federal officials have said they had not expected such an intense downpour of rain and insisted that no one saw the flood potential coming. Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county's top elected official, said: "We know we get rain. We know the river rises. But nobody saw this coming." "We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States," he said, adding: "We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what's happened here. None whatsoever." Mr Kelly separately noted that while the county considered a flood warning system along the river that would have functioned like a tornado warning siren about six or seven years ago, "the public reeled at the cost". At a news conference with the Texas governor, Homeland Security secretary Kristi Noem said on Saturday that "everybody knows that the weather is extremely difficult to predict" before saying "we have all wanted more time and more warning and more alerts and more notification" from the NWS. She said a "moderate" flood watch issued on Thursday by the NWS had not accurately predicted the extreme rainfall and said the Trump administration was working to upgrade their technology. Will forecasting get better? While Ms Noem said technology for the NWS would be upgraded, the White House has previously been criticised after Donald Trump 's administration ordered 800 job cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - the parent organisation of the NWS. A 30% cut to its budget is also in the pipeline, subject to approval by Congress. Professor Costa Samaras, who worked on energy policy at the White House under President Joe Biden, said NOAA had been in the middle of developing new flood maps for neighbourhoods and that cuts to NOAA were "devastating".

Fears Trump cuts may have led to scaled-back Texas flood predictions
Fears Trump cuts may have led to scaled-back Texas flood predictions

The Independent

timean hour ago

  • The Independent

Fears Trump cuts may have led to scaled-back Texas flood predictions

& Erin Keller Devastating floods in Central Texas have resulted in at least 51 fatalities, including 15 children, with 27 attendees of Camp Mystic still unaccounted for. Texas officials are questioning the accuracy of National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts, saying that predicted rainfall amounts were significantly lower than what actually occurred. The NWS issued a "life-threatening flash flooding" warning over three hours before the first reports of flooding, and meteorologists are defending the agency's actions despite the difficulty of pinpointing exact rainfall. Concerns have been raised that previous staff reductions at the NWS, implemented by President Donald Trump 's administration, may have impacted the agency's forecasting capabilities, despite claims of adequate staffing. Local lawmakers are anticipating "finger-pointing" over the response, while Donald Trump has described the floods as a "shocking" tragedy and pledged federal aid.

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