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Deutsche Bank Sees 30-Year Yield Up by Half Point on Powell Exit

Deutsche Bank Sees 30-Year Yield Up by Half Point on Powell Exit

Bloomberg3 days ago
The potential ouster of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by President Donald Trump would drive the 30-year Treasury yield higher by more than half a percentage point, according to Deutsche Bank AG strategists.
The clearest hedge against risks to the Fed's independence — and a scenario in which US government spending consumes monetary policy — are yield curve steepener trades, a team including Matthew Raskin and Steven Zeng wrote in a note to clients. These trades benefit if the gap widens between short-term and long-term yields.
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Threshold for tax reporting from slot wins raised by Trump tax bill
Threshold for tax reporting from slot wins raised by Trump tax bill

Indianapolis Star

timean hour ago

  • Indianapolis Star

Threshold for tax reporting from slot wins raised by Trump tax bill

For gamblers, the impact of President Donald Trump's signature tax package is much like a night at the tables: you win some, you lose some. Tucked away in the nearly 900-page mega tax-and-spending bill is a provision that raises the minimum win slot-machine win that requires hand-payments and tax reporting at casinos. Signed into law on July 4, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act lifts the maximum win before casinos must issue a WG-2 form and shut down the machine to $2,000, up from the long-time figure of $1,200 and ties the threshold to inflation. The section takes effect in 2026 with the inflation index starting in 2027. American Gaming Association Senior Vice President of Government Relations Chris Cylke praised the provision to the gambling industry trade publication SBC Americas. "Raising the slot tax reporting threshold to $2,000 and indexing it to inflation is a long-overdue modernization that reduces regulatory burdens and improves the customer experience," Cylke said. The association noted in a 2022 press release that the $1,200 threshold was created in 1977. A Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation calculator indicates that the threshold would be over $6,600 in June of 2025 if it had been tied to inflation. Nevada Rep. Dina Titus (D) told Las Vegas CBS affiliate KLAS that the provision does not go far enough. 'While raising the slot reporting threshold to $2,000 is a step in the right direction, it is still inadequate," Titus, a champion of the SLOT Act that would raise the threshold to $5,000, explained. "The IRS Advisory Council recommended this threshold be raised over $5,000 and indexed to inflation." On the losing side, gamblers will be taking a hit courtesy of a separate tax provision in the newly created law. Starting in 2026, gamblers winning $1,000 can only deduct 90% of their losses, down from a previous 100% deduction. The amount of losses players can deduct is limited to their winnings, and deductible losses cannot exceed total winnings for the year. Titus introduced the My FAIR BET Act on July 7 to restore the 100% deduction for gamblers.

Oil prices climb on US-EU trade optimism, Russian gasoline cuts
Oil prices climb on US-EU trade optimism, Russian gasoline cuts

Yahoo

timean hour ago

  • Yahoo

Oil prices climb on US-EU trade optimism, Russian gasoline cuts

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a potential trade deal between the U.S. and the European Union and reports of Russian plans to restrict gasoline exports to most countries. Brent crude futures gained 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.35 a barrel by 0027 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $66.18 per barrel. Oil settled 1% higher on Thursday, driven by media reports of expected cuts to Russian gasoline exports. This overshadowed news of Chevron Corp potentially securing U.S. approval to resume production in Venezuela. President Donald Trump's administration is preparing to allow limited oil operations in the sanctioned OPEC nation, the Wall Street Journal reported. U.S. crude inventory draws and hopes for a trade deal between the U.S. and the EU for lower tariffs were lifting futures, which fell earlier in the week over fears of a worsening global trade war. "I am encouraged by the way crude oil held and bounced away from the $65/64 support band this week, which keeps hopes intact of a rebound back towards $70," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG. U.S. Energy Information Administration data on Wednesday showed crude inventories fell last week by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6 million-barrel draw. [EIA/S] Two European diplomats said on Wednesday that the EU and the U.S. were moving toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU imports and possible exemptions. That could pave the way for another major trade agreement following a deal with Japan. Investors will also be turning their focus to upcoming economic data next week from the world's top two economies and largest oil consumer - factory activity data from China and key U.S. indicators such as inflation, jobs and inventory data. "It is a big week next week data-wise," IG's Sycamore said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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