Tasmanian election inspires a feeling of deja vu
VOX POP: We were saying it was Groundhog Day
VOX POP 2: It was Groundhog Day. We thought it was probably going to happen.
VOX POP: A silly election that we didn't need to have.
VOX POP 2: An election we didn't need to have.
VOX POP: It feels pretty much exactly the same as it did last week, and like we'll probably get a pretty similar, yeah, it's going to look like exactly the same. Nothing really changed, which is disappointing but yeah.
ELLEN COULTER: Little more than a year after they delivered a minority Liberal government, Tasmanians were sent to polls again, when the Premier lost the confidence of the House.
And as votes were counted on Saturday, Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff once again claimed victory.
JEREMY ROCKLIFF, TASMANIAN PREMIER: I intend to visit the Governor and ask her to recommission my government so we can get on with the job for Tasmania.
ELLEN COULTER: But it's not that clear cut.
The Liberals have secured at least 14 seats.
Labor has nine and will probably get to 10.
The Greens are on five and independents four.
Three seats are still in doubt.
That means no one has the 18 seats needed for a majority.
Those numbers might sound familiar. That's because at the party level at least they're a carbon copy of the make-up of Tasmanian Parliament as we headed into this election.
It turns out when you only have 16 months between polls, voters deliver a fairly similar result.
The Premier is waiting until counting finishes to go to the Governor. In the meantime, he needs to shore up support from crossbenchers.
JEREMY ROCKLIFF: Those conversations have been good, at a very high level of course. I've congratulated all on their personal support within the community and look forward to further conversations over the course of the next week or two.
ELLEN COULTER: Labor kickstarted the chain of events that led to this election with its no confidence motion in the Premier.
CASEY BRIGGS, ABC CHIEF ELECTIONS ANALYST: It's a gamble that doesn't seem to have paid off.
Tasmanian Labor's gone backwards on primary votes, they've seen a swing against them of about 3 per cent. It hasn't meant that they've lost seats, but it has delivered them their worst primary vote share ever in state Labor history.
ELLEN COULTER: Despite that result, Labor leader Dean Winter has been making his own calls in the hope he might be able to govern.
DEAN WINTER, TAS. LABOR LEADER (Sunday): We've opened a line of discussion with the crossbench, and we'll make sure that they understand where we stand but we're not going to be horse-trading on policy.
ASSOC. PROF. KATE CROWLEY, UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA: If they can cobble together a power sharing arrangement that reaches a majority on the floor of the House, then what they're doing is creating an arrangement that represents the majority of the voters' intentions and so that is entirely legitimate.
But I think that the public would be shocked because the trend of the vote is away from Labor.
ELLEN COULTER: Tasmanians have delivered a progressive crossbench, including two independents who previously voted no confidence in the Premier.
So far, no independents have said who they'd give support to in this parliament.
One-time Labor leader, now independent David O'Byrne gave Mr Rockliff support in the previous term.
DAVID O'BYRNE, INDEPENDENT: Let's see the dust settle but I'm more than open to working with both sides of the House to ensure that we actually get parliament working and we get out of people's lives and stop having constant elections.
ELLEN COULTER: At the federal poll in May, independent Peter George gave minister Julie Collins a run for her money.
With an army of grassroots and high-profile supporters, he easily got the votes to be elected to state parliament on the weekend.
PETER GEORGE, INDEPENDENT: Whoever can come up with the best proposition that will be of real benefit to Tasmania, I will work with them. But I don't plan to sign an agreement, because frankly with those old parties, the agreement is only worth what it is until they tear it up and the truth is both of those parties will tear up any agreement as soon as it's no longer convenient to them.
ELLEN COULTER: The Liberals don't want to work with the Greens and Dean Winter has promised not to govern with the Greens.
DEAN WINTER: I've been clear with Tasmanians before this election that I won't be doing any deals with the Greens and I'm not going to change that.
ELLEN COULTER: Kate Crowley is an expert on minority government and green politics. She says Dean Winter will need more than the support of the independents.
KATE CROWLEY: Everyone knows that he needs to talk to the Greens. He can't get anywhere without talking to the Greens.
ELLEN COULTER: A potential sticking point in negotiations could be plans for a contentious new AFL stadium.
While both major parties support the stadium, the Greens don't and nor do three of the four independents elected so far.
PETER GEORGE: The truth of the matter is, the stadium is not necessary, it's unwanted, quite clearly because I've been elected and that's one of the policies that I've been elected on, or positions.
ELLEN COULTER: While the weekend's result might seem odd to the rest of the country, this sort of election purgatory isn't unusual for Tasmania's electoral system.
CASEY BRIGGS: The Hare-Clark system delivers seats to parties you know roughly in proportion to the share of the vote that they get. Now it used to be the case that the major parties would get vote share numbers in the 40s, but that's been declining now for some time. We're seeing the same trend in Tasmania that we're seeing nationally.
But under the Hare-Clark system, it sort of exaggerates the effect that you get. It sees minority governments become even more likely.
ELLEN COULTER: Something the major parties might need to get used to.
KATE CROWLEY: I think they really need to start thinking more about schooling themselves into how to build coalitions. And honestly, there's so much experience around the country now in doing coalitions.
So there's a lot of lesson learning that can go on there. You can form stable coalitions with partners that you don't see eye to eye on.
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