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Activists in France call for release of Lebanese activist Georges Ibrahim Abdallah

Activists in France call for release of Lebanese activist Georges Ibrahim Abdallah

The National2 days ago
Abdallah was convicted in 1987 over the killings of US and Israeli diplomats and is one of France's longest-serving prisoners
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France's plan to cull public holidays may not help the economy
France's plan to cull public holidays may not help the economy

Zawya

time3 hours ago

  • Zawya

France's plan to cull public holidays may not help the economy

FRANKFURT - The French government thinks the country has too many days off for its own good, but its proposal to cull some public holidays may not produce much of an economic benefit. Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has proposed scrapping two of the country's 11 public holidays as part of a deeply unpopular emergency plan to plug a budget hole. In his sights is Easter Monday and one of four bank holidays in May, a month Bayrou compared to Gruyère cheese for its many holes. Bayrou's idea is that working two extra days will generate more economic output and therefore revenues for the government. Recent experience from elsewhere and various economic studies suggest it won't be as simple as that. In 2023 Denmark abolished Great Prayer Day, a Christian holiday that fell on the fourth Friday after Easter and dated back to 1686, to great popular discontent. On the surface, the sacrifice paid off. The number of hours worked by the average Dane fell by less than in previous years, according to Danske Bank. Yet when it comes to economic output, which is what matters for public finances, the impact of the extra day was tiny at between 0.01% and 0.06%, according to IMF estimates. France's statistical agency INSEE put the boost to GDP of Bayrou's proposal at a similarly negligible 0.06%. This is because time off is not all bad. Of course it slows down production, particularly for manufacturing companies. But it is also considered key for mental and physical health, and typically proves a boost to sectors like tourism. LEISURE CAN BE AN ECONOMIC BOOST In fact, economic studies find that output increases along with the number of national holidays - but only up to a point. One study of 101 countries by the Centre for Future Labour Market Studies in Malaysia put that sweet spot at nine or 10 public closures in a year. "As the number of public holidays increases, initially economic growth increases, but after some optimal point, when the number of public holidays increases further, economic growth starts to decline," the researchers said in the 2023 study. The exact number may depend on the make-up of a country's economy. A study of the Italian economy, which like the French is dominated by services and has on average 12 public holidays in a year, found that economic output did not vary or even slightly increased in years with more closures, indicating it was close to its own sweet spot. "Companies have fixed production targets and work around holidays," said author Francesco Maria Esposito, an assistant professor at the Birmingham Business School. The situation was similar in Germany, where the calendar is set by the 16 states and ranges from 10 to 13 holidays. The Dusseldorf-based Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) found that German states that introduced a public holiday more often than not experienced stronger economic growth than those that cut one. "The equation 'fewer holidays equals more growth' simply does not hold up," said Sebastian Dullien, IMK's scientific director. Portugal scrapped four public holidays at the height of its debt crisis in 2012 -- only to reinstate them four years later. (Additional reporting by Maria Martinez in Berlin and Leigh Thomas in Paris Editing by Mark John and Frances Kerry)

Trump says India trade agreement is close, Europe deal possible
Trump says India trade agreement is close, Europe deal possible

Zawya

time3 hours ago

  • Zawya

Trump says India trade agreement is close, Europe deal possible

WASHINGTON: The United States is very close to a trade deal with India, while an agreement could possibly be reached with Europe as well, but it is too soon to say whether a deal can be agreed with Canada, President Donald Trump said in an interview aired on Real America's Voice on Wednesday. To press for what Trump views as better terms with trading partners and ways to shrink a huge U.S. trade deficit, his administration has been negotiating trade deals ahead of an August 1 deadline, when duties on most U.S. imports are due to rise again. "We're very close to India, and ... we could possibly make a deal with (the) EU," Trump said, when asked which trade deals were on the horizon. Trump's comments come as EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic was headed to Washington on Wednesday for tariff discussions, while an Indian trade delegation arrived in Washington on Monday for fresh talks. "(The) European Union has been brutal, and now they're being very nice. They want to make a deal, and it'll be a lot different than the deal that we've had for years," he added. Asked about the prospects of a deal with Canada, which like the EU, is readying countermeasures if talks with the U.S. fail to produce a deal, Trump said: "Too soon to say." His comment was in line with the assessment of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who said earlier on Wednesday that a deal that works for Canadian workers was not yet on the table. Trump also said he would probably put a blanket 10% or 15% tariff on smaller countries. (Reporting by Jasper Ward and Ismail Shakil; editing by Diane Craft)

The Epstein saga could become an existential crisis for Trump's Maga movement
The Epstein saga could become an existential crisis for Trump's Maga movement

The National

time3 hours ago

  • The National

The Epstein saga could become an existential crisis for Trump's Maga movement

Those who live by conspiracy theories may also die by them. From the outset, Donald Trump's political career relied on them, starting with the false claim that then-president Barack Obama wasn't born in the US. But the most important conspiracy theory to the base supporting Mr Trump was the QAnon myth that he would expose, purge and punish a 'deep state' cabal of elites mired in paedophilia and sex trafficking of children. The most passionate wing of the Maga movement viewed Mr Trump, above all, as the bane of elite child abusers. The crucial real-life tie-in lending these fantasies some verisimilitude was disgraced billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, who died under suspicious circumstances at a Manhattan jail during Mr Trump's first term in 2019. He had been associated with many prominent politicians and other noteworthy people. Following Mr Trump's re-election, enormous excitement grew that the Justice Department's voluminous Epstein files and a supposed 'client list' of high-profile, mainly liberal, sexual predators he catered to would be released in a thunderclap of accountability. Instead, a July 7 Justice department memo concluded that Epstein didn't blackmail anyone, wasn't murdered and had no 'client list'. It provoked stunned disbelief and howls of outrage from the President's deepest support base. Some adversaries were already stoking the flames. After his acrimonious fallout with Mr Trump, billionaire Elon Musk on June 5 wrote: 'Time to drop the really big bomb: Trump is in the Epstein files. That is why they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT.' That post was deleted, but Mr Musk has remained on the attack. 'How can people be expected to have faith in Trump if he won't release the Epstein files?' he posted on July 8. The horrified astonishment is understandable. Many officials now defending the memo had been dedicated proponents of Epstein conspiracy theories. In February, Attorney General Pam Bondi said Epstein's 'client list' was on her desk. Now she says it doesn't exist. Mr Trump says he can't understand why anyone is 'still talking' about Epstein. But declassifying the files was part of his election campaign platformm, although he warned about the potential for "phony stuff" in it. Donald Trump Jr, Vice President JD Vance, FBI Director Kash Patel and his deputy Dan Bongino (who is threatening to resign over the scandal) had all emphasised the importance of the Epstein files and 'client list' during the campaign. In February, the White House invited right-wing influencers to view 'the Epstein files phase one', but there was nothing new in it. Nonetheless, there's plenty of information – 300GB of data related to more than 1,000 victims – in the government's possession that is being kept under wraps. The administration's claim that it doesn't want to embarrass victims lacks credibility. It's easy to redact names and identifying information regarding the 1,000 little-known victims in tens of thousands of file pages. Epstein kept extensive videotapes captured throughout his residences. And neither the autopsy nor the investigation into his death have been made public. Ms Bondi wants the Maga faithful to accept the sudden about-face that there's no important new information remaining and move on. But in an environment of tense conspiratorial agitation, with a particular focus on the Epstein files, that isn't going to happen. Usually Trump-friendly online commentators like Tucker Carlson and Megan Kelly are hammering the topic even though the administration desperately wants to declare the case closed. Mr Carlson has described it as 'one of the craziest things I've ever seen in my life', and warned that 'if you wanted a revolution, this is how you would act'. Even US House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson, a key Trump ally in Congress, is urging the release of the documents, as Democratic lawmakers demand hearings into the administration's conduct. Some Trump supporters are trying to shift blame to Ms Bondi, but that begs the question of why she would be 'covering up' whatever is being concealed. One of the challenges facing Mr Trump is that he doesn't have the same leverage over online media influencers that he does with members of Congress. There's no implicit or explicit threat to field candidates to challenge them in primaries and remove them from office. His vulnerability to their criticism is therefore considerable. To a conspiracy-minded worldview, the only relevant question now is what is being suppressed, and who is covering up for whom. Mr Trump has sought to pass all responsibility to Ms Bondi, saying she should release whatever she finds 'credible' in the files, but she has stopped answering all questions on the issue in public. There appear to be no plans to release anything further. However, it's unclear whether even if Mr Trump were to ultimately dismiss his Attorney General over this issue, although he continues to praise her performance, that it would resolve the question. Indeed, it might make matters worse for him by underscoring suspicions that there are aspects of this information that need to be concealed. Those suspicions are not being quelled by his statements that the files were somehow 'made up' by Mr Obama, former FBI chief James Comey, the administration of former president Joe Biden and his other political adversaries. It's a very strange claim from any perspective. He is also now linking the controversy to 'the Russia hoax' and other scandals he has cast as manufactured political attacks against him. If he wanted to stir speculation that there are embarrassing facts being concealed, he could not frame it any more effectively. If there really is nothing to all of this, the Trump inner circle has no one to blame but itself for the incredulity and crisis of credibility with the deepest part of its own base. The entire debacle inevitably begs the question: 'Were you lying then, or are you lying now?' It all leaves the Trump base wondering if Epstein wasn't at the centre of, at least, some paedophilia sex trafficking among elites, is the entire Maga worldview wrong? Or is there some underlying truth the administration is trying to hide?

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