Biggest surprises of MLB's first half, plus: Where would the Rays host playoff games?

New York Times

2 days ago

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It may already have happened — I'm not doing the math — but we're around the mathematical halfway point (1,215 games) of the season. Let's recap! Also, Ken pokes at a question I've had for months: Where would the Rays play home playoff games? I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal — welcome to the Windup!
First, a caveat: These are not all the surprises (we have a word limit). But here are a few that stick out to me.
Cal Raleigh's power surge: His 32 first-half home runs (so far) are already impressive. But I can't get over these three factors:
Jacob Wilson is hitting .347: This maybe shouldn't be a surprise — he hit .433 in 226 plate appearances across three minor-league levels last year. This year, his .347 mark is second-best in the sport, and the Athletics' 23-year-old only has 22 strikeouts.
Andrew Abbott's hot start: Before he hit the IL, Hunter Greene was having a career year. But he hasn't even been the Reds' best starter in the first half. That would be Abbott, who is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA, which would lead the league if the 26-year-old had 5 2/3 more innings pitched. If Chase Burns is anything like his debut suggested — and if Rhett Lowder can get back from the IL in the second half — the Reds are going to have a nasty second-half rotation.
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The Rays, Brewers, Giants and Cardinals: I don't have my preseason predictions handy (because I didn't make any, because that is a fool's errand). (Also I forgot to do it.) But I did not expect any of these four teams to contend. All four are either in a wild-card position, or within one game of it.
Speaking of Tampa Bay …
From my latest column:
As the regular season nears the halfway point, the question of whether the Tampa Bay Rays could host postseason games at cozy Steinbrenner Field in Tampa no longer can be ignored. Major League Baseball and the Rays have engaged in preliminary conversations about where the team would play home games if it makes the playoffs, according to officials briefed on the discussions.
Steinbrenner Field, with its 10,046-seat capacity, could be viable for the wild-card round and Division Series. But logistical concerns might force a move to a larger stadium if the Rays advanced to the American League Championship Series and World Series.
Those concerns would include:
The Rays, naturally, would not want to be put at a competitive disadvantage by playing home postseason games at a neutral site — say, Miami's loanDepot park or Atlanta's Truist Park. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled to be their home park only for this season. But since a hurricane last October ripped the roof off Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, the Rays have made it their own.
Entering Wednesday, the Rays held the top wild-card position in the American League and trailed the New York Yankees by only one game in the AL East. Their 28-14 record since May 8 was the best in the majors. And one of their weakest offensive positions should grow stronger when shortstop Ha-Seong Kim makes his expected return from right labrum surgery in July.
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The Rays' surge is not certain to continue. The league front-loaded their home schedule to help them avoid the summer heat and rain in Florida. To this point, they have played the most home games of any major-league club. Fifty-two of their final 83 games will be on the road.
The Rays, though, already have demonstrated they can adjust to changing circumstances, going 16-5 at Steinbrenner since May 19 after an 11-18 start at their temporary home. Their .586 winning percentage on the road entering Wednesday also was higher than their .557 overall mark, which ranked as the fourth best in the AL.
For the Rays, then, a sixth playoff appearance in seven years is hardly a distant dream. And if they earn home playoff games by winning the AL East or finishing as the top AL wild card, they surely would want to play in front of their home fans at Steinbrenner, where they have sold out 42 of their 50 games.
More here.
Gunnar Henderson and the O's: Last year, Henderson's OPS was .893 and he was worth 9.1 bWAR for the Orioles. This year? .768 OPS and 2.3 bWAR at the halfway point. Neither is bad, but it's nowhere close to last year's output. Henderson's not alone: The Orioles were no-hit for at least six innings on each of the last two nights, and they're 34-46 (third-worst in the AL).
The Atlanta Braves, just all of it: No matter how many times I repeated, 'The Braves will probably be fine once Ronald Acuña and Spencer Strider are back,' it just isn't happening. Even at 6-4 in their last 10 games, they're 37-42, 6 1/2 games back in the wild-card race and 9 1/2 games back in the NL East. Also, Chris Sale just hit the IL with a fracture in his ribs.
The Rafael Devers trade: I guess it depends on where we're starting the clock. Jan. 1, 2025, there's no way I could have guessed that Devers would be in anywhere but Boston. But if you asked me on Opening Day, the odds would have changed.
The Twins, Rangers, Red Sox and Diamondbacks: I'm not sure I would have picked any of them to win the World Series, but I certainly expected each of them to be better than fourth place in their division — which is where they all sit right now.
I just told you about 10 teams — one-third of the league — I was wrong about this year, so take these with a grain of salt. Here are the teams that are currently in playoff positions:
Division leaders: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies / Tigers, Astros, Yankees
Wild cards: Mets, Giants, Brewers / Rays, Blue Jays, Mariners
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It's pretty obvious the Dodgers and Tigers are legit (duh). The Cubs look well-rounded enough to me to hold off Milwaukee and anyone else who might surge in the NL Central. I think the Mets ultimately address their pitching at the deadline and overtake the Phillies in the NL East, but both teams look October-y.
I think the Yankees' talent is too great to fumble the division. The Astros less so, but they've been hot lately — and who's gonna really challenge them in the West?
That leaves us with two NL and three AL wild-card positions to fill. In the NL — with apologies to their fans, I don't think the Giants or Brewers are still standing at the end (have you seen the Giants' offense lately?).
I think the Padres take one spot, and here's my one very spicy prediction: Under Terry Francona's steady hand, I think the Reds (42-39, three games out) ride their rotation to the last wild-card spot.
In the AL, I've given up trying to predict what the Rays will or will not do. But I can look around the rest of the AL and ask: Who else is there? The Guardians and Rangers haven't hit. The Angels are allergic to October. The Red Sox just traded their best hitter.
So I guess I'm going with the Rays, Blue Jays and Mariners — there aren't many other great options.
More playoff prognosticating: On 'Rates & Barrels,' the crew assesses the AL wild-card teams, and who's most likely to catch them.
Ronald Acuña Jr. became the first player added to this year's Home Run Derby. He'll hit in front of his hometown fans in Atlanta.
Minor drama: The Yankees believe Reds catcher (and former Yankee) Jose Trevino contributed to Jazz Chisholm Jr.'s ejection on Tuesday night. Chisholm homered last night and had a few words for Trevino.
The Padres have many reasons to regret trading for Juan Soto. AJ Preller insists he doesn't. Meanwhile, Soto is heating up for the Mets.
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Earlier this week, we told you about Jeremy Peña's breakout season in Houston. Today, Chandler Rome has a deep dive on Peña's journey.
Chad Jennings has assembled an All-IL All-Star team. Sheesh.
Seems like players are making it to the big leagues faster these days. Keith Law gives us six from this year's draft who might keep the trend alive.
Jacob Misiorowski vs. Paul Skenes, Part 1 was a bit of a dud — Skenes had arguably the worst start of his career (four runs in four innings). But Misiorowski was brilliant yet again, going five scoreless and throwing the hardest recorded pitch in Brewers history (102.4 mph). Eno Sarris compares and contrasts the styles of the two young stars.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: The first edition of our trade deadline tiers.
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