
Bright spots emerge in corporate earnings as tariff uncertainty lingers
Corporate operations have been overshadowed by erratic U.S. trade action that has upended supply chains and left firms to navigate fluid tariffs on top of broader economic uncertainties such as regulatory change and currency fluctuation.
But tech titans Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab, SK Hynix (000660.KS), opens new tab and Infosys (INFY.NS), opens new tab - which all reported earnings that beat market forecasts - predicted brighter days to come, with Alphabet and SK Hynix both flagging plans to boost spending.
Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab supplier SK Hynix booked record quarterly profit, boosted by strong demand for artificial intelligence chips and customers stockpiling ahead of potential U.S. tariffs.
Indian IT services provider Infosys raised the floor of its annual revenue forecast range to 1% to 3%, from flat to 3%, matching analyst expectations.
Among the major earnings on Thursday, Nestle, Reckitt, Roche and Wizz report before local markets open.
The upbeat guidance amounted to a bright spot in a turbulent second-quarter earnings season that has so far seen businesses as varied as chipmakers and steelmakers report downbeat results.
Companies have reported over July 16-22 a combined full-year loss of as much as $7.8 billion, with the automotive, aerospace and pharmaceutical sectors being hurt most by tariffs.
General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab said tariffs knocked $1.1 billion from second-quarter earnings.
On Wednesday, Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab Chief Executive Elon Musk said U.S. government cuts in support for electric vehicle makers could lead to a "few rough quarters", as his firm reported its worst quarterly sales decline in over a decade.
News that the U.S. had struck a deal with Japan to lower new tariffs on auto imports and spare it punishing levies on other goods lifted Asian and European stock markets on Wednesday. It stirred hope for a similar deal with the European Union ahead of August 1, when the U.S. said new tariffs will go into effect.
The European Union is moving toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions, two European diplomats said.
One surprise on Thursday was South Korea's finance ministry saying tariff negotiations had been postponed due to a scheduling conflict for U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The announcement cast fresh doubt about whether South Korea would be able to avert U.S. import duties that could hit some of its major exporting industries.
All eyes are on Washington as governments scramble to close trade deals ahead of next week's deadline that the White House has already pushed back under pressure from markets and intense lobbying by industry.
While the Japan deal has eased investor worry, the threat of higher tariffs on other large economies remains, including the European Union, Canada and Brazil.
An EU-China summit on Thursday will test European resolve and unity as the bloc faces trade pressure from both China as well as the United States, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets Chinese officials in Sweden next week.
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The $6tn bank tweak that risks triggering the next crisis
Bair's big fear is that the money won't end up being funnelled back into boring bonds at all, but end up lining shareholders' pockets or in more exotic investments. She says: 'Banks will likely find a way to distribute some of it to shareholders, or otherwise deploy it into their market operations which are riskier and more vulnerable to crisis conditions than insured banks.' Covid buffer Those who back removing Treasuries from the calculations highlight that it was done during the pandemic without much fanfare as banks ploughed more money into bonds. However, analysts at Morgan Stanley have highlighted that this was in part a function of a 21pc jump in bank deposits as workers had nowhere to spend their cash during lockdowns. It recently noted: 'The Covid-related surge in deposits means that 2020-21 is not comparable with today's environment, as deposit growth is tepid at 1pc year-on-year. Deposit growth, combined with loan demand, are key drivers of bank demand for securities as banks will prefer to use deposits to support client lending activity and build client relationships.' Bair says capital buffers were put there for a reason. 'If there should be a future crisis, regulators have the authority to provide emergency temporary relief. 'Reduce capital requirements now, they don't know how banks may deploy it. Better to maintain strong requirements in good times so capital cushions will be there when bad times hit.' Regulators are also keeping a close eye on this side of the Atlantic amid concerns we are moving towards a world where sovereign risk is completely removed from the leverage ratio. While the UK has already taken steps to remove central bank reserves from its calculations, officials here believe removing government bonds would be a step too far. Rogoff, now a Harvard professor, agrees that capital buffers have served their purpose during times of crisis. 'It is notable how well the banking system held up during the pandemic, and later from the sharp rise in global interest rates. It is precisely when the system hits peak stress moments – especially when the economy is hit by completely out of the box shocks – that the SLR suddenly does not seem quite so crazy,' he says. The rules tweaks may look benign, but bond sell-offs are often quick and violent. And it's usually the taxpayer left picking up the pieces.