Tour de France stage 18 preview: Battle for yellow jersey to ignite on ‘queen stage' through the Alps

Independent

4 days ago

Following one more comparatively relaxed day for the general classification on stage 17's full-throttle, chaotic sprint finish, won by the green jersey of Jonathan Milan, the battle for the overall title reignites today.
Milan came out on top in dismally wet conditions at the end of a 160km run from Bollene to Valence, a transitional stage taking the riders out of Provence and towards the traditional battleground of the Alps.
His major sprint rival Tim Merlier was held up in a crash in the final kilometre which brought down several sprinters, including last year's green jersey winner Biniam Girmay, whose torrid Tour continued as he was helped over the line by teammates clutching his collarbone.
But with the final sprint day before Paris out the way, the Tour de France now reaches its climax on stages 18 and 19: a double-header of hideously difficult Alpine stages back-to-back.
The Tour may not be won here - it may have already been won, with Tadej Pogacar leading by more than four minutes - but it can certainly be lost.
Today's stage 18 is undoubtedly the 'queen stage' of this year's race: 171.5km from Vif to Courchevel, traversing the high Alps and three hors-categorie climbs, some of the most gruelling in the entire Tour de France repertoire. The riders will also have keep something in the tank for another punishing stage to come on Friday, with nearly as much climbing to crest before a calmer weekend to conclude this race.
It's a classic shark's-tooth profile today, climbing and descending all day with a brief prelude of some gentler uphill to get things underway, and a small valley section before the day's final climb.
And it's not just the GC favourites who will be eyeing glory: if Lenny Martinez wants to win the polka-dot jersey over Tadej Pogacar, its current custodian, he'll need to claim serious points on today's stage - meaning we're likely to see fireworks all day, both from the breakaway and the yellow jersey contenders.
First up is the Col du Glandon (21.7km at an average of 5.1%), making its first appearance since 2015, with the descent leading immediately onto the Col de la Madeleine (18.2km at 7.9%). There's little respite after reaching the summit, as the descent flattens out very briefly before the road kicks back up for arguably the most difficult climb of all: the Col de la Loze.
It's approached from the eastern side via the ski resort of Courchevel, rather than Meribel as it has been the two previous times it has featured in the Tour, although it'll be no comfort to the riders to know that the eastern route is technically the easier one. At an average of 6.5% it's not the steepest ascent of the day, but it is by far the longest, at 26.4km, and it takes the riders up to the high point of this year's race, the Souvenir Henri Desgrange, 2,304m above sea level.
In total, there are 5,500m of vertical gain today, condensed into just 171km of racing. It's not just the sheer amount and difficulty of the climbing, but the fact that it's at high altitude: a state of affairs which has historically suited Jonas Vingegaard more than the yellow jersey.
This year's race is peppered with climbs that have previously been ruinous for Pogacar: the Col de la Loze, infamously, featured on the queen stage in 2023 and was where he cracked. Who can forget the 'I'm gone, I'm dead' radio message? Not Pogacar - and not Vingegaard.
Some observers have suggested the yellow jersey has looked a little under the weather in the last couple of stages, riding conservatively on Mont Ventoux rather than attacking for glory at the summit, and that he isn't quite in the same pomp as he was in the Pyrenees.
He matched Vingegaard's every attack and accelerated at the top to eke out another two seconds to add to his commanding lead - but he didn't work to pull back the breakaway and claim the victory for himself, leading to all sorts of speculation that as Vingegaard grows stronger throughout this final week, Pogacar may be weakening.
If that's the case, Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike will look to pile on as much pressure as they physically can, going for the same tactic as they have throughout this year's race: snapping at the Slovenian's heels with multiple short attacks, and as on the road to Mont Ventoux, sending riders into the breakaway to act as stepping-stones for Vingegaard to challenge for the overall. They'll hope that Pogacar cracks on the punishing slopes of Col de la Loze - just as he did in 2023.
But the defending champion has already earned his revenge on two climbs that have previously hurt him, conquering Hautacam and obliterating Vingegaard in the Pyrenees, before sticking with his rival on Mont Ventoux. He'll have equally lofty aims on Col de la Loze. Stage 18 will be crucial in the battle for the overall title - and in the fight for enduring supremacy between these two great rivals.
Route map and profile
Start time
An early start today: 12.10pm local time, 11.10am BST, with an expected finish of around 5.10pm local time (4.10pm BST).
Prediction
There are plenty of talented climbers in this year's Tour but it's hard to see past this being a GC battle at the finish. Lenny Martinez will no doubt get up the road in the breakaway, targeting the KOM points atop the Col du Glandon and Col de la Madeleine.
If it does come down to an elite climbing breakaway for the stage win, Thymen Arensman and Valentin Paret-Peintre have already shown their class on the toughest stages; what about the elder brother, Aurelien Paret-Peintre? Could Pablo Castrillo or Michael Storer spring a surprise?
They'll have to get past the peloton's terrible twins first. Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard were locked together on Mont Ventoux, covering each other's every move; Pogacar will want to strike the killer blow on the Col de la Loze - and exorcise his demons there - while Vingegaard will want to repeat history. I'm going with Tadej Pogacar, on the basis of his strength so far in this race, but this could be a closer fight than we've seen so far in this Tour.